michaelroberts24.bsky.social
@michaelroberts24.bsky.social
Top ten posts of 2025

At the end of every year, I remind readers of the ten most popular posts on my blog over the last 12 months. But first, just to let you know: since I started the blog in 2010, there have been 6.2m viewings on the blog from 2.5m visitors. During that time I have posted 1350…
Top ten posts of 2025
At the end of every year, I remind readers of the ten most popular posts on my blog over the last 12 months. But first, just to let you know: since I started the blog in 2010, there have been 6.2m viewings on the blog from 2.5m visitors. During that time I have posted 1350 times.  In 2025, I did 69 posts with 483,365 viewings.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
December 23, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Books of the year 2025

Every year at this time, I look back at the books that I have reviewed during the year on this blog. This time I shall include some that I did not review but now consider might interest readers. Let’s start with some mainstream works that attracted much attention. In the US,…
Books of the year 2025
Every year at this time, I look back at the books that I have reviewed during the year on this blog. This time I shall include some that I did not review but now consider might interest readers. Let’s start with some mainstream works that attracted much attention. In the US, Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, writers at liberal mainstream 
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
December 16, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Extreme inequality – and what to do about it

The latest World Inequality Report 2026 reveals the stark cleavage between rich and poor in the world – a division that is getting wider to the extreme. Based on data compiled by 200 researchers organised by the World Inequality Lab, the report finds…
Extreme inequality – and what to do about it
The latest World Inequality Report 2026 reveals the stark cleavage between rich and poor in the world – a division that is getting wider to the extreme. Based on data compiled by 200 researchers organised by the World Inequality Lab, the report finds that fewer than 60,000 people – 0.001% of the world’s population – control three times as much wealth as the entire bottom half of humanity.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
December 10, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Stagflation and the K-shaped economy

The Financial Times points out that, on the campaign trail last year, Donald Trump vowed to “immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One”. Yet, since his return to the White House in January, inflation has remained elevated. As a result, Trump’s approval…
Stagflation and the K-shaped economy
The Financial Times points out that, on the campaign trail last year, Donald Trump vowed to “immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One”. Yet, since his return to the White House in January, inflation has remained elevated. As a result, Trump’s approval rating has slipped, weighed down by concerns over the cost of living. However, last Wednesday, he claimed America’s cost of living worries are a…
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
December 9, 2025 at 8:28 AM
AI and the railway mania

The AI bubble continues. The Magnificent Seven of tech media continue to drive the US stock market, along with the AI companies. The ten largest US companies by stock market value, holding over 40% of the total market cap of the S&P-500 index, have continued to shift…
AI and the railway mania
The AI bubble continues. The Magnificent Seven of tech media continue to drive the US stock market, along with the AI companies. The ten largest US companies by stock market value, holding over 40% of the total market cap of the S&P-500 index, have continued to shift upward in price, well above any increase in earnings (profits) recorded. Recent earnings from major US ‘hyperscalers’ (AI development companies) show that revenue growth remains strong, but free cash flow is being sucked up by accelerating capital expenditure.  
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
December 4, 2025 at 12:34 PM
UK: the ‘make or break’ budget

The UK had an apparently important financial event today. The Labour government’s finance minister (called the Chancellor of the Exchequer, a feudal royal term), Rachel Reeves presented the government’ s tax and spending measures for the year (and years ahead). It…
UK: the ‘make or break’ budget
The UK had an apparently important financial event today. The Labour government’s finance minister (called the Chancellor of the Exchequer, a feudal royal term), Rachel Reeves presented the government’ s tax and spending measures for the year (and years ahead). It was billed as a ‘make or break’ budget for the Labour government which is languishing badly in the opinion polls – its share of support has halved from an already low election result of 34% in July 2024 when Labour won a landslide of seats. 
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:28 PM
COP 30: it’s no joke

The usual joke about the United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COPs) is that each one is a ‘cop-out’. Each time there is a failure to agree on ending fossil fuel production as the source of energy, even though it is now well established that carbon and other greenhouse…
COP 30: it’s no joke
The usual joke about the United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COPs) is that each one is a ‘cop-out’. Each time there is a failure to agree on ending fossil fuel production as the source of energy, even though it is now well established that carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions come mainly from the use of fossil fuels. Each time there is a failure to agree to significant planned and implemented reductions in emissions from all sources, production, transport, wars etc.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
November 23, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Chile: another turn to the right?

Chile has a general election today. Around 15m voters can take part in the first round to elect a new president, the lower house and half the seats of the senate. Incumbent President Gabriel Boric, who was elected in 2021, is constitutionally barred from seeking a…
Chile: another turn to the right?
Chile has a general election today. Around 15m voters can take part in the first round to elect a new president, the lower house and half the seats of the senate. Incumbent President Gabriel Boric, who was elected in 2021, is constitutionally barred from seeking a consecutive second term. So all is up for grabs. Boric was a former student activist who got a decisive victory in 2021.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
November 16, 2025 at 8:21 AM
HM 2025 part two – nature, rent, profit and AI

In this part two, I resume my review of the Historical Materialism conference in London with a look at some of the sessions on climate change, ecology and the impact of artificial inteliigence – as well as on the state of the world economy. As the…
HM 2025 part two – nature, rent, profit and AI
In this part two, I resume my review of the Historical Materialism conference in London with a look at some of the sessions on climate change, ecology and the impact of artificial inteliigence – as well as on the state of the world economy. As the climate crisis worsens globally, naturally there were several sessions on how capitalism is destroying humanity, other species and the planet itself.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Historical Materialism 2025 part one: imperialism and war

Every year the Historical Materialism journal holds a conference in London. It is attended by (mostly) academics and students to discuss Marxist theory and critique capitalism.  This year the conference seemed very well attended and the…
Historical Materialism 2025 part one: imperialism and war
Every year the Historical Materialism journal holds a conference in London. It is attended by (mostly) academics and students to discuss Marxist theory and critique capitalism.  This year the conference seemed very well attended and the best organised ever. There was a huge range of sessions and plenaries on economics, culture, technology, imperialism, war and gender issues. There were many ‘streams’ of presentations on fascism, technology (AI), imperialism, climate change and, of course, Marxist theory. 
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Debt and the cockroaches

Let the Financial Times sum it up: “US stocks ride AI hype and trade truce to 6-month winning streak S&P 500 and Nasdaq post longest runs of monthly gains in years.” The FT points out that US stocks have hit their longest monthly winning streak in four years as AI hype,…
Debt and the cockroaches
Let the Financial Times sum it up: “US stocks ride AI hype and trade truce to 6-month winning streak S&P 500 and Nasdaq post longest runs of monthly gains in years.” The FT points out that US stocks have hit their longest monthly winning streak in four years as AI hype, declining interest rates and Donald Trump’s move to dial back his trade war led the way.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
November 1, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Depression and creative destruction

The latest economic activity indicators called purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) confirm that the major economies are still crawling along – neither slipping into slump nor picking up pace. The global PMI stands at 52.4 in September (any score above 50.0 means…
Depression and creative destruction
The latest economic activity indicators called purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) confirm that the major economies are still crawling along – neither slipping into slump nor picking up pace. The global PMI stands at 52.4 in September (any score above 50.0 means expansion, any score below means contraction). Source: JPM In effect, the major economies remain in what I call a Long Depression that started after the Great Recession of 2008-9. 
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
October 24, 2025 at 10:50 AM
The AI bubble and the US economy

The US stock market continues to hit new record highs; the bitcoin price is also close to highs and the gold price has rocketed to all-time highs. Investors in financial assets (banks, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds etc) are wildly optimistic and…
The AI bubble and the US economy
The US stock market continues to hit new record highs; the bitcoin price is also close to highs and the gold price has rocketed to all-time highs. Investors in financial assets (banks, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds etc) are wildly optimistic and confident about financial markets. As the chair of Rockefeller International, Ruchir Sharma put it: “Despite mounting threats to the US economy — from high tariffs to collapsing immigration, eroding institutions, rising debt and sticky inflation — large companies and investors seem unfazed.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
October 14, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Gold: what’s behind the boom?

This week the price of gold in US dollars hit $4000 per troy oz. This is an historic high (at least in nominal dollars). But even that high looks set to be surpassed, with investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasting $4900 per oz by year end. And the gold price in other…
Gold: what’s behind the boom?
This week the price of gold in US dollars hit $4000 per troy oz. This is an historic high (at least in nominal dollars). But even that high looks set to be surpassed, with investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasting $4900 per oz by year end. And the gold price in other major currencies has also been rising. What is behind this unprecedented rally? 
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
October 9, 2025 at 9:04 AM
The frontiers of value

Güney Işıkara and Patrick Mokre have published an insightful book that explains how Marx’s theory of value operates to explain the trends and fluctuations in modern capitalist economies. Called Marx’s Theory of Value at the Frontiers - Classical Political Economics,…
The frontiers of value
Güney Işıkara and Patrick Mokre have published an insightful book that explains how Marx’s theory of value operates to explain the trends and fluctuations in modern capitalist economies. Called Marx’s Theory of Value at the Frontiers - Classical Political Economics, Imperialism  and Ecological Breakdown, the title tells the reader that the book is about taking Marx’s law of value towards what they call its ‘frontiers’, namely markets and trade; imperialism and the global environmental crisis.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
October 3, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Argentina: the chainsaw breaks down

Last week US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a $20bn swap line to Javier Milei’s government in Argentina and pledged to buy its bonds, as the Trump administration moved to shore up its ideological ally. The measures temporarily halted a rout in…
Argentina: the chainsaw breaks down
Last week US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a $20bn swap line to Javier Milei’s government in Argentina and pledged to buy its bonds, as the Trump administration moved to shore up its ideological ally. The measures temporarily halted a rout in Argentine foreign exchange and bond markets triggered by the rapid depletion of the country’s foreign reserves as Milei sought to defend an overvalued currency.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
September 29, 2025 at 9:18 AM
The UN at 80: ignored and irrelevant

The 80th edition of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 80) opened yesterday in New York.  The theme this year is: 'Better together: 80 years and more for peace, development and human rights', highlighting the urgency of delivering on the Sustainable…
The UN at 80: ignored and irrelevant
The 80th edition of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 80) opened yesterday in New York.  The theme this year is: 'Better together: 80 years and more for peace, development and human rights', highlighting the urgency of delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and reinvigorating 'global cooperation'. When the United Nations was born in San Francisco on June 26, 1945, the overriding goal of the 50 participants who signed the UN Charter was stated in its first words: …
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
September 23, 2025 at 12:46 PM
IIPPE 2025: immigration and the world order

The 2025 conference  of the International Initiative for thePromotion of Political Economy (IIPPE) just took place in Ankara, Turkey.  The IIPPE was founded in 2006 with the aim of “developing and promoting political economy in and of itself but also…
IIPPE 2025: immigration and the world order
The 2025 conference  of the International Initiative for thePromotion of Political Economy (IIPPE) just took place in Ankara, Turkey.  The IIPPE was founded in 2006 with the aim of “developing and promoting political economy in and of itself but also through critical and constructive engagement with mainstream economics, heterodox alternatives, interdisciplinarity, and activism understood broadly as ranging across formulating progressive policy through to support for progressive movement.”
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
September 22, 2025 at 7:16 AM
US economy: stagflation now more than a whiff

US economy has a widening gap: between rising inflation on the one line and employment on the other. According to mainstream Keynesian theory, that should not happen. That’s because a weakening labour market should lead to a fall in wage increases and…
US economy: stagflation now more than a whiff
US economy has a widening gap: between rising inflation on the one line and employment on the other. According to mainstream Keynesian theory, that should not happen. That’s because a weakening labour market should lead to a fall in wage increases and in consumer demand and price inflation will subside. The experience of the 1970s economies disproved that theory supposedly supported by the so-called Phillips curve (ie a trade-off between price rises and unemployment).
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
September 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Norway: the fossil fuel capital of Europe

Norway has a general election today. In a country of 5.6m people, some 4m are entitled to vote and there is usually a high turnout by international standards – over 75%. Indeed, early voting has become increasingly popular, with up to 60% voting before the…
Norway: the fossil fuel capital of Europe
Norway has a general election today. In a country of 5.6m people, some 4m are entitled to vote and there is usually a high turnout by international standards – over 75%. Indeed, early voting has become increasingly popular, with up to 60% voting before the official day. Norwegians are probably the richest nation in the world – if you measure that by average income per person . 
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
September 7, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Gopinath, the IMF and ‘good policies’

In 2019, economics professor Gita Gopinath left the halls of Harvard University to become the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Three years later, she made an unprecedented jump from economic analysis to policy management, becoming the…
Gopinath, the IMF and ‘good policies’
In 2019, economics professor Gita Gopinath left the halls of Harvard University to become the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Three years later, she made an unprecedented jump from economic analysis to policy management, becoming the first ever ‘deputy managing director’ — or the IMF’s effective number two – the right-hand (woman) of IMF managing director, Kristalina Georgieva.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
September 1, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Should central banks be ‘independent’?

US President Donald Trump announced that he had fired Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Trump says that she committed mortgage fraud by taking out two mortgages, claiming both properties as her primary residence, back when she was…
Should central banks be ‘independent’?
US President Donald Trump announced that he had fired Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Trump says that she committed mortgage fraud by taking out two mortgages, claiming both properties as her primary residence, back when she was a professor at Michigan State, before joining the Fed. Naturally, Cook dismissed these charges, and as Keynesian economist Paul Krugman said on his blog,
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
August 27, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Jackson Hole 2025: monetary policy, demography and productivity

Every August, the regional Kansas City Federal Reserve holds a symposium for the world’s central bankers to consider their role in economic policy and important developments in the world economy.  The head of the US Federal Reserve…
Jackson Hole 2025: monetary policy, demography and productivity
Every August, the regional Kansas City Federal Reserve holds a symposium for the world’s central bankers to consider their role in economic policy and important developments in the world economy.  The head of the US Federal Reserve usually presents a summary of how he (or she) sees the state of US economy and what action the US Fed should take in trying to meet its set targets of keeping price inflation moderate (no more than 2% a year) and achieving ‘full employment’.
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
August 24, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Dollar decline; the failures of mainstream economics and epochal crisis – reviews

It’s mid-summer in the Northern hemisphere, so I thought it might be the time for a quiet review of some books on the trends in the world economy. These are short reviews without much depth and I am excluding new…
Dollar decline; the failures of mainstream economics and epochal crisis – reviews
It’s mid-summer in the Northern hemisphere, so I thought it might be the time for a quiet review of some books on the trends in the world economy. These are short reviews without much depth and I am excluding new books coming up that deserve fuller accounts. Let’s start with a couple of books that deal with US economic hegemony and the dollar. 
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
August 18, 2025 at 6:15 AM
Intangibles: does it change things?

A recent article in the UK’s Financial Times got very excited about the rise of intangibles. The author Tek Parikh said that “50 years go, the assets held by top 500 US companies were predominantly ‘tangible’ — factories, equipment, inventory et cetera. But…
Intangibles: does it change things?
A recent article in the UK’s Financial Times got very excited about the rise of intangibles. The author Tek Parikh said that “50 years go, the assets held by top 500 US companies were predominantly ‘tangible’ — factories, equipment, inventory et cetera. But today, it is estimated that most of their assets are ‘intangible’ ie. intellectual property (knowledge and software), branding value and marketing networks." …
thenextrecession.wordpress.com
August 14, 2025 at 8:33 AM