Migration Observatory
@migobs.bsky.social
The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford provides independent, authoritative, evidence-based analysis on UK migration.
Exciting news for immigration data nerds: Home Office will resume publishing exit check statistics probably this year, according to Jon Simmons - former Home Office immigration stats guru - speaking at Lords Justice & Home Affairs Committee this morning
parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...
parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...
February 3, 2026 at 11:23 AM
Exciting news for immigration data nerds: Home Office will resume publishing exit check statistics probably this year, according to Jon Simmons - former Home Office immigration stats guru - speaking at Lords Justice & Home Affairs Committee this morning
parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...
parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...
A Times investigation has found that visa agents are selling Skilled Worker visas for positions that don't exist.
It's well worth reading the full article (link in the next post), but here's how it works.
It's well worth reading the full article (link in the next post), but here's how it works.
January 28, 2026 at 10:08 AM
A Times investigation has found that visa agents are selling Skilled Worker visas for positions that don't exist.
It's well worth reading the full article (link in the next post), but here's how it works.
It's well worth reading the full article (link in the next post), but here's how it works.
Family visa applications stabilised again in December after falling sharply in the last quarter of the year.
This category includes Family Reunion for refugees, which was paused in September 2025, explaining the abrupt fall.
This category includes Family Reunion for refugees, which was paused in September 2025, explaining the abrupt fall.
January 9, 2026 at 9:29 AM
Family visa applications stabilised again in December after falling sharply in the last quarter of the year.
This category includes Family Reunion for refugees, which was paused in September 2025, explaining the abrupt fall.
This category includes Family Reunion for refugees, which was paused in September 2025, explaining the abrupt fall.
There was a small uptick in skilled worker and health and care visa applications in December, after an overall downward trend throughout the year as a whole.
It's worth noting, as of July 2025, care workers are no longer eligible to apply for the health and care route.
It's worth noting, as of July 2025, care workers are no longer eligible to apply for the health and care route.
January 9, 2026 at 9:29 AM
There was a small uptick in skilled worker and health and care visa applications in December, after an overall downward trend throughout the year as a whole.
It's worth noting, as of July 2025, care workers are no longer eligible to apply for the health and care route.
It's worth noting, as of July 2025, care workers are no longer eligible to apply for the health and care route.
The MAC highlight research which finds a link between migrant integration and proficiency in the host country's language.
In the 2021 Census, most migrants reported speaking good English, but 10% said they cannot speak English well or at all.
In the 2021 Census, most migrants reported speaking good English, but 10% said they cannot speak English well or at all.
December 17, 2025 at 12:55 PM
The MAC highlight research which finds a link between migrant integration and proficiency in the host country's language.
In the 2021 Census, most migrants reported speaking good English, but 10% said they cannot speak English well or at all.
In the 2021 Census, most migrants reported speaking good English, but 10% said they cannot speak English well or at all.
The MAC estimates that the average partner who came to the UK on a family visa in 2022/23 will represent a net cost of £109,000 over their lifetime.
Their annual fiscal impact is positive for many years after arrival, but falls significantly as these people grow older.
Their annual fiscal impact is positive for many years after arrival, but falls significantly as these people grow older.
December 17, 2025 at 12:55 PM
The MAC estimates that the average partner who came to the UK on a family visa in 2022/23 will represent a net cost of £109,000 over their lifetime.
Their annual fiscal impact is positive for many years after arrival, but falls significantly as these people grow older.
Their annual fiscal impact is positive for many years after arrival, but falls significantly as these people grow older.
Overseas Domestic Workers are, e.g., nannies, housekeepers, and chauffeurs who accompany their employers when they visit the UK.
ODWs are vulnerable to exploitation. This abuse often takes place behind closed doors, which can make enforcement difficult.
ODWs are vulnerable to exploitation. This abuse often takes place behind closed doors, which can make enforcement difficult.
December 17, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Overseas Domestic Workers are, e.g., nannies, housekeepers, and chauffeurs who accompany their employers when they visit the UK.
ODWs are vulnerable to exploitation. This abuse often takes place behind closed doors, which can make enforcement difficult.
ODWs are vulnerable to exploitation. This abuse often takes place behind closed doors, which can make enforcement difficult.
New data shows a sharp decline in family visas following the September restriction on refugee family reunion.
December 12, 2025 at 10:28 AM
New data shows a sharp decline in family visas following the September restriction on refugee family reunion.
Does this mean more Brits are leaving the UK now than before the pandemic?
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Does this mean more Brits are leaving the UK now than before the pandemic?
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
In short, we don't know. That's because British migration estimates using the new method only go back to 2021, and aren't comparable with pre-pandemic estimates based on the old method.
The ONS revised the figures because it changed its methodology.
EU net migration was higher than previously thought (although still negative), and British emigration was significantly higher—ONS now believes British net migration was -114,000 in 2024, compared to a previous figure of just -17,000.
EU net migration was higher than previously thought (although still negative), and British emigration was significantly higher—ONS now believes British net migration was -114,000 in 2024, compared to a previous figure of just -17,000.
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The ONS revised the figures because it changed its methodology.
EU net migration was higher than previously thought (although still negative), and British emigration was significantly higher—ONS now believes British net migration was -114,000 in 2024, compared to a previous figure of just -17,000.
EU net migration was higher than previously thought (although still negative), and British emigration was significantly higher—ONS now believes British net migration was -114,000 in 2024, compared to a previous figure of just -17,000.
Revised estimates from the ONS suggest that net migration reached a peak of 944,000 in 2023 (rather than 906,000) and fell faster in 2024, to 345,000 (not 431,000).
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
November 18, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Revised estimates from the ONS suggest that net migration reached a peak of 944,000 in 2023 (rather than 906,000) and fell faster in 2024, to 345,000 (not 431,000).
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
Here's all you need to know, in three posts...
The share of children born to migrant mothers in England & Wales has been rising. Our updated Children of Migrants briefing shows this is largely due to UK-born women having fewer children on average — and to shifts in the composition of the UK’s migrant population.
November 7, 2025 at 12:42 PM
The share of children born to migrant mothers in England & Wales has been rising. Our updated Children of Migrants briefing shows this is largely due to UK-born women having fewer children on average — and to shifts in the composition of the UK’s migrant population.
Nigerian and Indian international students are more likely to still be in the UK after five years, while US and Chinese students are much less likely.
November 4, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Nigerian and Indian international students are more likely to still be in the UK after five years, while US and Chinese students are much less likely.
45% of international students who came to the UK in 2022 had switched to another visa by the end of 2024.
Students were most likely to have switched onto the Graduate route, but there was also more switching onto long-term work visas than before Brexit.
Students were most likely to have switched onto the Graduate route, but there was also more switching onto long-term work visas than before Brexit.
November 4, 2025 at 9:20 AM
45% of international students who came to the UK in 2022 had switched to another visa by the end of 2024.
Students were most likely to have switched onto the Graduate route, but there was also more switching onto long-term work visas than before Brexit.
Students were most likely to have switched onto the Graduate route, but there was also more switching onto long-term work visas than before Brexit.
Between 2022–2024, the UK issued 19% fewer international student visas — yet universities still enrolled around 730,000 people from abroad in 2023/24, a quarter of all students. India, China & Nigeria led new arrivals.
October 30, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Between 2022–2024, the UK issued 19% fewer international student visas — yet universities still enrolled around 730,000 people from abroad in 2023/24, a quarter of all students. India, China & Nigeria led new arrivals.
We also offer new analysis on the gender pay gap among Skilled Workers. Despite being a male-dominated route, women on these visas earn more, on average, than full-time female workers in the wider UK workforce.
October 17, 2025 at 10:58 AM
We also offer new analysis on the gender pay gap among Skilled Workers. Despite being a male-dominated route, women on these visas earn more, on average, than full-time female workers in the wider UK workforce.
Why the change? More male students and the 2024 ban on dependants have skewed UK study visas towards men. Women remain the majority in Health and Care, partner, humanitarian, and refugee family reunion visas—but policy changes are limiting these routes.
October 17, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Why the change? More male students and the 2024 ban on dependants have skewed UK study visas towards men. Women remain the majority in Health and Care, partner, humanitarian, and refugee family reunion visas—but policy changes are limiting these routes.
Although migration to the UK is roughly gender-balanced, our analysis shows that 2023 was the first time in at least seven years that men outnumbered women in visa and refugee grants.
October 17, 2025 at 10:58 AM
Although migration to the UK is roughly gender-balanced, our analysis shows that 2023 was the first time in at least seven years that men outnumbered women in visa and refugee grants.
Labour has made several migration pledges since entering government, from reducing net migration to ending the use of asylum hotels.
Has progress been made towards achieving these pledges? Take a look at our tracker (in the next post) to find out.
Has progress been made towards achieving these pledges? Take a look at our tracker (in the next post) to find out.
October 14, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Labour has made several migration pledges since entering government, from reducing net migration to ending the use of asylum hotels.
Has progress been made towards achieving these pledges? Take a look at our tracker (in the next post) to find out.
Has progress been made towards achieving these pledges? Take a look at our tracker (in the next post) to find out.
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
October 9, 2025 at 10:40 AM
New monthly visa data:
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
➤ Skilled worker visa applications fell following July restrictions on care workers & mid-skilled jobs
➤Student visa applications similar to last year
➤Family visa applications ticking back upwards after the peak & decline that followed MIR increase
New data provides fascinating insights into outcomes of recent refugees granted status between 2015 and 2020
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
September 26, 2025 at 2:10 PM
New data provides fascinating insights into outcomes of recent refugees granted status between 2015 and 2020
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
Both asylum (ARR) and resettled refugees (RR) struggled in labour market, but particular the latter - likely reflecting that many were selected based on vulnerability
link to data in reply
Who is responsible for housing asylum seekers and refugees?
In our new Q&A, we cover the following:
In our new Q&A, we cover the following:
September 16, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Who is responsible for housing asylum seekers and refugees?
In our new Q&A, we cover the following:
In our new Q&A, we cover the following:
Sharp increase in homelessness among newly granted refugees was one of the reasons Home Sec cited for recent restriction on refugees' ability to sponsor family members
Our latest Q&A provides background on the new policy
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Our latest Q&A provides background on the new policy
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
September 10, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Sharp increase in homelessness among newly granted refugees was one of the reasons Home Sec cited for recent restriction on refugees' ability to sponsor family members
Our latest Q&A provides background on the new policy
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
Our latest Q&A provides background on the new policy
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...
65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
August 19, 2025 at 7:44 AM
65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
See our updated population growth briefing for more.
The rising share of people migrating with a partner is particularly visible among female main applicants. For possible explanations, check our full briefing!
August 14, 2025 at 10:51 AM
The rising share of people migrating with a partner is particularly visible among female main applicants. For possible explanations, check our full briefing!