Found in the Grotte du Placard à Vilhonneur (Charente).
Photo: RMNGP/MAN 🧵2/2

Not just rebuild the country, but to enter an era of extraordinary economic progress."

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Zaluzhnyi concludes that the main political goal for Ukraine is to deprive Russia of the possibility to carry out acts of aggression against Ukraine in the foreseeable future.

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Security guarantees are therefore central. In a world where international law and its enforcement mechanisms are badly weakened, no final peace is possible without long-term guarantees: NATO membership, real deterrent forces, or other credible mechanisms. Without them, any agreement is fragile.

19/
Victory is the collapse of the Russian Empire’s ability to wage war against Ukraine. Defeat is the collapse and occupation of Ukraine. Everything else is only a continuation of war.

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The end of the war will not come from forecasts or information triggers, he writes, but from the overall balance of achievements and losses on the military, economic and political fronts.

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He outlines possible goals for different periods: from preventing war and preparing the country before 2022, through using the strategy of destruction, to strategic defence and forming coalitions to deprive Russia of its ability to wage war.

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For Ukraine, defining the political goal of the war means uniting tasks on the political, economic and armed fronts.

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This strategy's goal is to bring the enemy state to disintegration. The “decisive blow” in this context can be internal collapse, including the risk of civil war – a danger that can arise both from a prolonged war and from a “just peace” without real security guarantees and financial programmes.

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In a war of attrition, operations focus less on one decisive military success and more on creating conditions where material superiority gradually removes the enemy's ability to resist: militarily, economically and politically. By the end of 2023 this strategy was fully developed and applied.

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But when the defeat strategy failed, Russia adopted an attrition strategy. From spring 2022 it focused on operations in the northeast, east, and south, building defences, an economic war footing, legislation changes, resource stockpiling, energy infrastructure attacks, and propaganda campaigns.

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However, Ukraine survived. Thanks to the heroism of its citizens, innovation, and allied support, their plan failed. Stopping the enemy from achieving its political goal and preserving statehood is already a form of victory: it gives a chance to keep struggling and seek peace on one’s own terms.