András Tóth-Czifra
@minczifra.bsky.social
2.3K followers 340 following 1.1K posts
Political & security analyst. 🇪🇺🇭🇺🇺🇸. FPRI Eurasia fellow, Bear Market Brief contributor. Ex-CEPA, ESI. Posts about 🇷🇺, 🇪🇺, illiberalism and its limits. Posts reflect my own views. Здесь вам не Toth. www.noyardstick.com minczifra.substack.com
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minczifra.bsky.social
I still need to watch this myself, but the newest innovation from Orbán's workshop is a movie about the 1241-42 Mongolian invasion that killed almost half of Hungary's population, depicting Batu Khan as a peacenik converted by wise Hungarian leaders and a papal legate as a scheming Western traitor.
minczifra.bsky.social
It was a different situation for sure, but I don't think we've learned anything new about the person over the past decade. Everything we know about him today we knew in 2015 already.
minczifra.bsky.social
Ever the keen-eyed observer himself (although unlike many others, at least he admitted being wrong).
minczifra.bsky.social
Baffling. I really wonder what the people in the red wedge had expected.
minczifra.bsky.social
What Merkel said was that in June 2021, still in office, she wanted to create a new negotiating format between the EU & Russia as she felt Minsk had expired & Putin didn't take it seriously, but PL & Balts were afraid that this would lead to indecision & no common position in the EU (ahem, Orban).
minczifra.bsky.social
Just to be clear - because I see it popping up on my timeline - no, obviously Merkel didn't blame Poland and the Baltic states for Russia's war against Ukraine.

It's quite remarkable how British tabloids can forge an inflammatory headline even out of the dullest, emptiest interviews.
minczifra.bsky.social
Start the weekend with the newest @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social! Read about the worsening fuel crisis, Russia's potential plan to seize EU assets, hirings and firings in regional politics and more! Subscribe to have it in your inbox every week!

open.substack.com/pub/bearmark...
Running on fumes
The fuel crisis deepens in the Russian regions
open.substack.com
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
minczifra.bsky.social
In pure Merkelian fashion, Merkel also sat down for an interview with Partizán, Hungary's most popular politics-focused YouTube channel, which is critical of Orbán's government. She didn't say anything for 47 minutes, but the interview itself is meaningful.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjSH...
Angela Merkel: a magyar nép feladata eldönteni, újraválasztja-e Orbán Viktort
YouTube video by Partizán
www.youtube.com
minczifra.bsky.social
In pure Merkelian fashion, Merkel also sat down for an interview with Partizán, Hungary's most popular politics-focused YouTube channel, which is critical of Orbán's government. She didn't say anything for 47 minutes, but the interview itself is meaningful.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjSH...
Angela Merkel: a magyar nép feladata eldönteni, újraválasztja-e Orbán Viktort
YouTube video by Partizán
www.youtube.com
minczifra.bsky.social
Wait and he's taking the place of Eric Adams
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
minczifra.bsky.social
New on Substack: taking a look at Russia's regional finances in the context of the ongoing discussion of the federal budget; and short comments on some important developments in regional politics that didn't make the cut for the Brief in September.

minczifra.substack.com/p/on-regiona...
On regional finances and others
Thoughts about the state of Russia's regional budgets and some other notable developments in September
minczifra.substack.com
minczifra.bsky.social
Angela Merkel, in Budapest to introduce his book's Hungarian edition, visits and poses for a photo op with Viktor Orbán.

A decision that is going to be difficult to understand for those who regard Merkel as a former "leader of the free world" and guarantor of normality.
minczifra.bsky.social
New on Substack: taking a look at Russia's regional finances in the context of the ongoing discussion of the federal budget; and short comments on some important developments in regional politics that didn't make the cut for the Brief in September.

minczifra.substack.com/p/on-regiona...
On regional finances and others
Thoughts about the state of Russia's regional budgets and some other notable developments in September
minczifra.substack.com
minczifra.bsky.social
Oops, that was Hegseth, not Trump. My bad.
minczifra.bsky.social
A propos of nothing, services like uBlockOrigin, AdGuard and certain VPN providers work wonders against ads on video sharing platforms, that one too.
minczifra.bsky.social
Dear fellow New Yorkers, it's time to learn the word "админресурс".

(On a side note, I don't think Trump realizes that by saying this out loud he's not exactly helping whoever he thinks he's helping.)
atrupar.com
Trump on Mamdani: "He is going to have problems with Washington like no Mayor in the history of our once great City. Remember, he needs the money from me, as President, in order to fulfill all of his FAKE Communist promises. He won’t be getting any of it, so what’s the point of voting for him?"
Self proclaimed New York City Communist, Zohran Mamdani, who is running for Mayor, will prove to be one of the best things to ever happen to our great Republican Party. He is going to have problems with Washington like no Mayor in the history of our once great City. Remember, he needs the money from me, as President, in order to fulfill all of his FAKE Communist promises. He won’t be getting any of it, so what’s the point of voting for him? This ideology has failed, always, for thousands of years. It will fail again, and that’s guaranteed!  President DJT
Reposted by András Tóth-Czifra
jakluge.de
I've updated my Russian budget browser with the latest data for 2026. In comparison to previous years, Russian military spending is supposed to fall by almost 1% of GDP next year... (unclear what the underlying assumptions are regarding the war against Ukraine)
minczifra.bsky.social
According to the Moldovan CEC, yes
minczifra.bsky.social
With the tally now over 90% but more than half of diaspora votes still to be counted, it now looks likely that the ruling PAS can cling onto its parliamentary majority (albeit a weakened one) regardless of PPDA's entry into the parliament.

A significant blowback against Russia's efforts in Moldova.