Mike Ludkovski
@mludkov.bsky.social
Professor at UCSB. Quantitative Finance and Stochastic Modeling. Interested in renewable energy markets, mortality risk, mathematical finance and Gaussian processes.
📢 New preprint! We study firming objectives where the BESS is used to reduce variability of renewable generation on intraday horizons. The approach is to do SoC management via simulation-based stochastic control.
📚 New Arxiv Paper
Title: Intraday Battery Dispatch for Hybrid Renewable Energy Assets
Authors: Thiha Aung, Mike Ludkovski
Read more: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.12305
Title: Intraday Battery Dispatch for Hybrid Renewable Energy Assets
Authors: Thiha Aung, Mike Ludkovski
Read more: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.12305
March 22, 2025 at 11:18 PM
📢 New preprint! We study firming objectives where the BESS is used to reduce variability of renewable generation on intraday horizons. The approach is to do SoC management via simulation-based stochastic control.
📙🚨Our new BOOK on GPs for math finance audience is out in the SpringerBriefs series. It's part handbook, part textbook, summarizing key Gaussian Process concepts and presenting a range of their financial applications. link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Gaussian Process Models for Quantitative Finance
This book describes diverse applications of Gaussian Process (GP) models in mathematical finance, targeting readers with financial mathematics background.
link.springer.com
March 19, 2025 at 6:32 PM
📙🚨Our new BOOK on GPs for math finance audience is out in the SpringerBriefs series. It's part handbook, part textbook, summarizing key Gaussian Process concepts and presenting a range of their financial applications. link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Sunny in the USA: all-time solar generation record set today at ISONE (New England), SPP (Great Plains) & MISO (Midwest), also #2 all-time high solar in PJM. That's 4 different grids on the same day! Yesterday ERCOT (Texas) hit all-time solar record too, breaking 25GW. #energysky @gridstatus.io
March 12, 2025 at 5:52 AM
Sunny in the USA: all-time solar generation record set today at ISONE (New England), SPP (Great Plains) & MISO (Midwest), also #2 all-time high solar in PJM. That's 4 different grids on the same day! Yesterday ERCOT (Texas) hit all-time solar record too, breaking 25GW. #energysky @gridstatus.io
The California Duck Curve is no more. In 2025 solar production forms a golden canyon in the CAISO generation mix: the extreme evening ramp of thermal generators is gone and gas gen profile is nearly flat. Instead, as solar ramps up/down it's fully handled by the batteries & imports. #energysky
March 4, 2025 at 8:00 AM
The California Duck Curve is no more. In 2025 solar production forms a golden canyon in the CAISO generation mix: the extreme evening ramp of thermal generators is gone and gas gen profile is nearly flat. Instead, as solar ramps up/down it's fully handled by the batteries & imports. #energysky
Per @gridstatus.io Record Tracker, ERCOT smashed the all-time Solar gen record: it was 24.3GW today at 2:05pm CST, which is 2GW (10%!!) higher than the old record set just 2 weeks ago. While wind and solar had impressive -ve corr, the net load shape is looking distinctly like a Duck Curve #energysky
February 17, 2025 at 5:54 AM
Per @gridstatus.io Record Tracker, ERCOT smashed the all-time Solar gen record: it was 24.3GW today at 2:05pm CST, which is 2GW (10%!!) higher than the old record set just 2 weeks ago. While wind and solar had impressive -ve corr, the net load shape is looking distinctly like a Duck Curve #energysky
What a difference a day makes: generation mix in CAISO today 2/14 and yesterday 2/13. Guess which day was the one with the atmospheric river! And which day had mid-day negative prices #energysky
February 15, 2025 at 5:04 AM
What a difference a day makes: generation mix in CAISO today 2/14 and yesterday 2/13. Guess which day was the one with the atmospheric river! And which day had mid-day negative prices #energysky
The parade of new records of wind and solar generation is continuing: Both #1 and #2 all-time Maximum Solar in PJM; #1 Max Wind in PJM; #2 Max Wind in MISO; #1 & #2 Max Renewables in MISO all happened Jan 27-28. We're in the middle of winter so all these are bound to be broken in the near future.
January 29, 2025 at 3:29 AM
The parade of new records of wind and solar generation is continuing: Both #1 and #2 all-time Maximum Solar in PJM; #1 Max Wind in PJM; #2 Max Wind in MISO; #1 & #2 Max Renewables in MISO all happened Jan 27-28. We're in the middle of winter so all these are bound to be broken in the near future.
from Duck Curve to Icebergs: The ongoing growth in deployed rooftop solar, grid-scale renewables and esp. batteries has created the new normal of *negative* net load in CAISO around mid-day. This now happens regularly on weekends & holidays: already 5 times in 2025! Below is 1/19/25
January 20, 2025 at 10:36 PM
from Duck Curve to Icebergs: The ongoing growth in deployed rooftop solar, grid-scale renewables and esp. batteries has created the new normal of *negative* net load in CAISO around mid-day. This now happens regularly on weekends & holidays: already 5 times in 2025! Below is 1/19/25
On occasion of attending this week the Workshop on Future Electricity Grids at NYU (nyup.orfe.princeton.edu) where I will be talking about the mathematics of intraday battery storage dispatch, I will be posting daily about the current state (as of January 2025) of US renewables and battery storage.
NYU-Princeton Workshop on Future Electricity Grids and Energy Markets with Decarbonization
Our Aim: To bring together academics and practitioners in France and the US to discuss modern and future electricity production as grids transition to majority renewables and nuclear energy sources fo...
nyup.orfe.princeton.edu
January 20, 2025 at 5:23 AM
On occasion of attending this week the Workshop on Future Electricity Grids at NYU (nyup.orfe.princeton.edu) where I will be talking about the mathematics of intraday battery storage dispatch, I will be posting daily about the current state (as of January 2025) of US renewables and battery storage.
Great read blog.gridstatus.io/predicting-e...
on game effects around Net Load (NL) peaks in ERCOT. The 4CP program ties costs to peak NL. Consumers anticipate the peak & ramp down, as designed. What's new is RegDown being absorbed by batteries charging, further reducing NL & doubling the impact.
on game effects around Net Load (NL) peaks in ERCOT. The 4CP program ties costs to peak NL. Consumers anticipate the peak & ramp down, as designed. What's new is RegDown being absorbed by batteries charging, further reducing NL & doubling the impact.
August 23, 2024 at 12:10 AM
Great read blog.gridstatus.io/predicting-e...
on game effects around Net Load (NL) peaks in ERCOT. The 4CP program ties costs to peak NL. Consumers anticipate the peak & ramp down, as designed. What's new is RegDown being absorbed by batteries charging, further reducing NL & doubling the impact.
on game effects around Net Load (NL) peaks in ERCOT. The 4CP program ties costs to peak NL. Consumers anticipate the peak & ramp down, as designed. What's new is RegDown being absorbed by batteries charging, further reducing NL & doubling the impact.
New record solar generation in #CAISO today, over 17 GW! According to gridstatus.io the last record before that was in Sep 2023, so it's been a while.
Hard to overstate how much solar power there is now in California mid-day, every day. It was serving more than 71% of all load at 1pm!
Hard to overstate how much solar power there is now in California mid-day, every day. It was serving more than 71% of all load at 1pm!
April 10, 2024 at 10:50 PM
New record solar generation in #CAISO today, over 17 GW! According to gridstatus.io the last record before that was in Sep 2023, so it's been a while.
Hard to overstate how much solar power there is now in California mid-day, every day. It was serving more than 71% of all load at 1pm!
Hard to overstate how much solar power there is now in California mid-day, every day. It was serving more than 71% of all load at 1pm!