@morningsidepark.bsky.social
4) MRLSs on a net basis (built/rebuilt less destroyed) are already declining.
5) Russian SHORAD/mid-range AD will reach crisis levels over the next few months.
I will leave it there for now.
5) Russian SHORAD/mid-range AD will reach crisis levels over the next few months.
I will leave it there for now.
January 31, 2026 at 9:38 PM
4) MRLSs on a net basis (built/rebuilt less destroyed) are already declining.
5) Russian SHORAD/mid-range AD will reach crisis levels over the next few months.
I will leave it there for now.
5) Russian SHORAD/mid-range AD will reach crisis levels over the next few months.
I will leave it there for now.
The result is that tanks at the front will begin to decline again.
3) The Russians are not building meaningful quantities of BMP-3 due to long-barrel constraints. Why use precious capacity on a low-pressure barrel that would likely not survive more than 10 attacks? Better to build artillery barrels.
3) The Russians are not building meaningful quantities of BMP-3 due to long-barrel constraints. Why use precious capacity on a low-pressure barrel that would likely not survive more than 10 attacks? Better to build artillery barrels.
January 31, 2026 at 9:38 PM
The result is that tanks at the front will begin to decline again.
3) The Russians are not building meaningful quantities of BMP-3 due to long-barrel constraints. Why use precious capacity on a low-pressure barrel that would likely not survive more than 10 attacks? Better to build artillery barrels.
3) The Russians are not building meaningful quantities of BMP-3 due to long-barrel constraints. Why use precious capacity on a low-pressure barrel that would likely not survive more than 10 attacks? Better to build artillery barrels.
2) As older tanks in worse condition are withdrawn from storage, the rebuild time increases and this will reduce the number of tanks that can be replaced per month. I don't think there will be any salvageable T-80s or T-72s left by the end of February. After that, the cap will be 100/per mo.
January 31, 2026 at 9:38 PM
2) As older tanks in worse condition are withdrawn from storage, the rebuild time increases and this will reduce the number of tanks that can be replaced per month. I don't think there will be any salvageable T-80s or T-72s left by the end of February. After that, the cap will be 100/per mo.
maintenance aspect. After doing a fair bit of reading on the T-64, I think it will be a battle to keep the engines running > 200+ hours, particularly since extra tons of wait will be added in converting them to turtle tanks.
The more weight, the greater the strain on the engines and suspensions.
The more weight, the greater the strain on the engines and suspensions.
January 31, 2026 at 9:38 PM
maintenance aspect. After doing a fair bit of reading on the T-64, I think it will be a battle to keep the engines running > 200+ hours, particularly since extra tons of wait will be added in converting them to turtle tanks.
The more weight, the greater the strain on the engines and suspensions.
The more weight, the greater the strain on the engines and suspensions.
feedback on. 1) There is a general underestimate of the number of T-62s and T-64s that will need to be cannibalized to rebuild AND THEN MAINTAIN tanks pulled from storage. The T-62s and T-64s do not share any parts with each other or with the T-72/90/80. 4 or 5 months ago I was not focusing on the
January 31, 2026 at 9:38 PM
feedback on. 1) There is a general underestimate of the number of T-62s and T-64s that will need to be cannibalized to rebuild AND THEN MAINTAIN tanks pulled from storage. The T-62s and T-64s do not share any parts with each other or with the T-72/90/80. 4 or 5 months ago I was not focusing on the
even some T-64s but cannot accept that this is due to a manufacturing shortfall. He does a great job counting tanks and IFV/APCs on sat photos but he would help his analysis greatly by having an open mind when provided with a few constructive observations.
A few points that I would like to get your
A few points that I would like to get your
January 31, 2026 at 9:38 PM
even some T-64s but cannot accept that this is due to a manufacturing shortfall. He does a great job counting tanks and IFV/APCs on sat photos but he would help his analysis greatly by having an open mind when provided with a few constructive observations.
A few points that I would like to get your
A few points that I would like to get your
a week+ later, he put up the posts with his estimates on tank and IFV/APC production estimates. He also suddenly reclassified about 1500 towed artillery pieces from Unknown on January 16th, to D-20s, D-30s, and MT-12s a few days later. He knows that Russia is pulling T-72 Urals/Alphas, T-62s, and
January 31, 2026 at 9:38 PM
a week+ later, he put up the posts with his estimates on tank and IFV/APC production estimates. He also suddenly reclassified about 1500 towed artillery pieces from Unknown on January 16th, to D-20s, D-30s, and MT-12s a few days later. He knows that Russia is pulling T-72 Urals/Alphas, T-62s, and
It has been a second since we communicated! I tried, at length, to explain to Jompy that Russia has very limited long-barrel production capacity. No main gun barrel, no tank. I provided copies of research pieces and barrel manufacturing estimates but to no avail. Although I doubt a causal link,
January 31, 2026 at 9:38 PM
It has been a second since we communicated! I tried, at length, to explain to Jompy that Russia has very limited long-barrel production capacity. No main gun barrel, no tank. I provided copies of research pieces and barrel manufacturing estimates but to no avail. Although I doubt a causal link,
For example, if you are saying that there are still about 600 T-62s but only one row of 50 are repairable, that would lead to one conclusion. If you are saying there are 100 left and only 50 are repairable, that would lead to a very different and much more positive conclusion for Ukrainian.
August 17, 2025 at 2:57 PM
For example, if you are saying that there are still about 600 T-62s but only one row of 50 are repairable, that would lead to one conclusion. If you are saying there are 100 left and only 50 are repairable, that would lead to a very different and much more positive conclusion for Ukrainian.
TW, thanks for all your work. I would like to ask for some clarification. For the 769th, Jompy listed 800 T-62s as of May 17, 2025. Are you saying that there is only one row of T-62s left and the rest are gone? Let me make some numbers up.
August 17, 2025 at 2:57 PM
TW, thanks for all your work. I would like to ask for some clarification. For the 769th, Jompy listed 800 T-62s as of May 17, 2025. Are you saying that there is only one row of T-62s left and the rest are gone? Let me make some numbers up.
TW, I do not see these tanks in the May 2025 50cm picture posted above. What date is this photo?
August 11, 2025 at 1:00 AM
TW, I do not see these tanks in the May 2025 50cm picture posted above. What date is this photo?
storage for another year (maybe), but it will be no where near the quantity required to keep the Ukrainian territory it currently holds.
July 7, 2025 at 10:23 AM
storage for another year (maybe), but it will be no where near the quantity required to keep the Ukrainian territory it currently holds.
that Russia has received up to 150 NK 170mm artillery pieces. This does not sound like an industrial power to me. At some point, analysts need to invoke Occam's Razor and accept that Russia is nearing the point of exhaustion. Yes, Russia can continue to drag 200+ tanks/IFVs/APCs per month out of
July 7, 2025 at 10:23 AM
that Russia has received up to 150 NK 170mm artillery pieces. This does not sound like an industrial power to me. At some point, analysts need to invoke Occam's Razor and accept that Russia is nearing the point of exhaustion. Yes, Russia can continue to drag 200+ tanks/IFVs/APCs per month out of
TW, yes, I have read that blog, but thanks for posting. Completely agree with your posts. Pessimists are WAY OVERESTIMATING Russia's industrial production capabilities. Russia is firing about 15k artillery shells a day and SK and others estimate that more than 50% come from NK. Ukraine estimates
July 7, 2025 at 10:23 AM
TW, yes, I have read that blog, but thanks for posting. Completely agree with your posts. Pessimists are WAY OVERESTIMATING Russia's industrial production capabilities. Russia is firing about 15k artillery shells a day and SK and others estimate that more than 50% come from NK. Ukraine estimates
of operational large barrel artillery IN STORAGE by late September.
Give me your best critique on this. Thanks.
Give me your best critique on this. Thanks.
July 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
of operational large barrel artillery IN STORAGE by late September.
Give me your best critique on this. Thanks.
Give me your best critique on this. Thanks.
have not been counted for 8 - 12 months. Planovyi had 111 on April 18th, 2025. Let's round up to 200 D-30s. Between SPGs, 2a36, M-46, and D-30, by my estimate, there only 800 or so artillery barrels left in storage. The remainder is WWII era junk. That leads to this conclusion: Russia will run out
July 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
have not been counted for 8 - 12 months. Planovyi had 111 on April 18th, 2025. Let's round up to 200 D-30s. Between SPGs, 2a36, M-46, and D-30, by my estimate, there only 800 or so artillery barrels left in storage. The remainder is WWII era junk. That leads to this conclusion: Russia will run out
2a65, MT-12, or D-20s left. There may be 200 2a36 since it uses a unique 152 shell and 200 M-46 because of its odd caliber (130mm), i.e. shell constraints for both has limited deployment. That leaves the workhorse, the 122mm D-30. With the exception of Planovyi, most of the depots with D-30s
July 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
2a65, MT-12, or D-20s left. There may be 200 2a36 since it uses a unique 152 shell and 200 M-46 because of its odd caliber (130mm), i.e. shell constraints for both has limited deployment. That leaves the workhorse, the 122mm D-30. With the exception of Planovyi, most of the depots with D-30s
same ballpark. Is this a plausible theory? For instance, I find it hard to believe that there are any operational 2S19s left in storage 1200+ days into a war in which the Russians have lost or burnt out a veritable sh*t ton of artillery. As to towed artillery, I believe there are no operational
July 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
same ballpark. Is this a plausible theory? For instance, I find it hard to believe that there are any operational 2S19s left in storage 1200+ days into a war in which the Russians have lost or burnt out a veritable sh*t ton of artillery. As to towed artillery, I believe there are no operational
barrel from the sat photos, that the actual operational SPGs in storage, what you define as decent, are a fraction of the 2,291 Jompy lists as being in storage. I was thinking as few as 10%, or about 230. Your decent estimate for the 80th and junk assessment for the 94th et al would put you in the
July 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
barrel from the sat photos, that the actual operational SPGs in storage, what you define as decent, are a fraction of the 2,291 Jompy lists as being in storage. I was thinking as few as 10%, or about 230. Your decent estimate for the 80th and junk assessment for the 94th et al would put you in the
you listed, this would be more efficient than rebuilding SPGs that have been sitting outside for 4 decades and need refurbished engines, drive trains, suspensions, etc. Strip the barrel and put it on a carriage already in Ukraine. That, due to the difficulty of determining if an SPG still has a
July 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
you listed, this would be more efficient than rebuilding SPGs that have been sitting outside for 4 decades and need refurbished engines, drive trains, suspensions, etc. Strip the barrel and put it on a carriage already in Ukraine. That, due to the difficulty of determining if an SPG still has a
TW, since about January, I have been working on a theory that Russia is stripping barrels from 2S1, 2S3, and 2S5s that are in storage to replace burnt out barrels on TOWED artillery or to replace barrels perforated by shrapnel from GMLRs, shells, FPV, and drone dropped ordinance. For all the reasons
July 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM
TW, since about January, I have been working on a theory that Russia is stripping barrels from 2S1, 2S3, and 2S5s that are in storage to replace burnt out barrels on TOWED artillery or to replace barrels perforated by shrapnel from GMLRs, shells, FPV, and drone dropped ordinance. For all the reasons
TW, of the SPGs at the 80th arsenal classified as junk, how many are lacking barrels? Has Russia been stripping barrels from SPGs to replace worn out barrels in Ukraine? Jompy lists 629 total SPGs at the 80th on June 4th, 2024. What is your count forJune 2025?
July 5, 2025 at 2:35 PM
TW, of the SPGs at the 80th arsenal classified as junk, how many are lacking barrels? Has Russia been stripping barrels from SPGs to replace worn out barrels in Ukraine? Jompy lists 629 total SPGs at the 80th on June 4th, 2024. What is your count forJune 2025?