@mrschmidt20.bsky.social
None of my replies, comments,(re-) tweets, or posts are to be understood as advice for any matter of life - especially not with respect to financial matters.
Author of https://compcap.substack.com
Author of https://compcap.substack.com
Pinned
New free Investment Musings post:
Warren Buffett's 'Owner Earnings' is a classic tool for value investors. But in 2025, it's missing a big source of value creation: intangible investments.
Accounting punishes companies for investing in their future. Here's a concept to tackle it
Warren Buffett's 'Owner Earnings' is a classic tool for value investors. But in 2025, it's missing a big source of value creation: intangible investments.
Accounting punishes companies for investing in their future. Here's a concept to tackle it
Haiku of the Day for 'To the Moon, or Sinking?'
Clean capital base,
High turnover, momentum:
Rockets before launch.
substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
Clean capital base,
High turnover, momentum:
Rockets before launch.
substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
December 24, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Haiku of the Day for 'To the Moon, or Sinking?'
Clean capital base,
High turnover, momentum:
Rockets before launch.
substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
Clean capital base,
High turnover, momentum:
Rockets before launch.
substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
Closing my position in $ECOM.V / $ECOM.
The financial turnaround has played out nicely so far, but sentiment feels promotional now.
Locking in gains and moving to the sidelines until I have more clarity on the business and its fundamentals.
substacktools.com/sharex/eVmNB...
The financial turnaround has played out nicely so far, but sentiment feels promotional now.
Locking in gains and moving to the sidelines until I have more clarity on the business and its fundamentals.
substacktools.com/sharex/eVmNB...
December 23, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Closing my position in $ECOM.V / $ECOM.
The financial turnaround has played out nicely so far, but sentiment feels promotional now.
Locking in gains and moving to the sidelines until I have more clarity on the business and its fundamentals.
substacktools.com/sharex/eVmNB...
The financial turnaround has played out nicely so far, but sentiment feels promotional now.
Locking in gains and moving to the sidelines until I have more clarity on the business and its fundamentals.
substacktools.com/sharex/eVmNB...
Haiku of the Day for 'The Financial Fingerprints of a "Scaled Economies Shared" Business"'
Low margins, high turns,
The DuPont lens will reveal
How value compounds.
substacktools.com/sharex/ff5MB...
Low margins, high turns,
The DuPont lens will reveal
How value compounds.
substacktools.com/sharex/ff5MB...
December 23, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Haiku of the Day for 'The Financial Fingerprints of a "Scaled Economies Shared" Business"'
Low margins, high turns,
The DuPont lens will reveal
How value compounds.
substacktools.com/sharex/ff5MB...
Low margins, high turns,
The DuPont lens will reveal
How value compounds.
substacktools.com/sharex/ff5MB...
Haiku of the Day for "Mind the Gap: An Intangible Twist on Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings"
Free cash flow misleads.
Add back all growth investments
See true power now.
substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...
Free cash flow misleads.
Add back all growth investments
See true power now.
substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...
December 22, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Haiku of the Day for "Mind the Gap: An Intangible Twist on Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings"
Free cash flow misleads.
Add back all growth investments
See true power now.
substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...
Free cash flow misleads.
Add back all growth investments
See true power now.
substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...
I usually keep deep dives for paid subscribers, but as I am standing on the shoulders of giants, it is free. Vistry Group $VTY.L is breaking its landbank to fund buybacks at ~40% discount to book. It will be a study in time arbitrage and capital release.
substacktools.com/sharex/BZTHt...
substacktools.com/sharex/BZTHt...
December 22, 2025 at 7:06 PM
I usually keep deep dives for paid subscribers, but as I am standing on the shoulders of giants, it is free. Vistry Group $VTY.L is breaking its landbank to fund buybacks at ~40% discount to book. It will be a study in time arbitrage and capital release.
substacktools.com/sharex/BZTHt...
substacktools.com/sharex/BZTHt...
Haiku of the Day for "Hidden Value on the Balance Sheet: An Investor's Guide to R&D Tax Incentives"
Aussie tech appears
Thirty percent cheaper now,
Incentives distort.
substacktools.com/sharex/WpeKT...
Aussie tech appears
Thirty percent cheaper now,
Incentives distort.
substacktools.com/sharex/WpeKT...
December 21, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Haiku of the Day for "Hidden Value on the Balance Sheet: An Investor's Guide to R&D Tax Incentives"
Aussie tech appears
Thirty percent cheaper now,
Incentives distort.
substacktools.com/sharex/WpeKT...
Aussie tech appears
Thirty percent cheaper now,
Incentives distort.
substacktools.com/sharex/WpeKT...
Haiku of the Day for "Beyond Working Capital: Spotting Business Model Strength in the Numbers"
When CCC* falls
While normal CCC climbs:
Hidden gem signal.
substacktools.com/sharex/DKTMd...
When CCC* falls
While normal CCC climbs:
Hidden gem signal.
substacktools.com/sharex/DKTMd...
December 20, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Haiku of the Day for "Beyond Working Capital: Spotting Business Model Strength in the Numbers"
When CCC* falls
While normal CCC climbs:
Hidden gem signal.
substacktools.com/sharex/DKTMd...
When CCC* falls
While normal CCC climbs:
Hidden gem signal.
substacktools.com/sharex/DKTMd...
Haiku of the Day for "The Cash Flow Conundrum"
Split lease principal
From interest in the notes,
Cash flows bloom brighter.
substacktools.com/sharex/1JSsz...
Split lease principal
From interest in the notes,
Cash flows bloom brighter.
substacktools.com/sharex/1JSsz...
December 19, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Haiku of the Day for "The Cash Flow Conundrum"
Split lease principal
From interest in the notes,
Cash flows bloom brighter.
substacktools.com/sharex/1JSsz...
Split lease principal
From interest in the notes,
Cash flows bloom brighter.
substacktools.com/sharex/1JSsz...
Nothing says "Happy Holidays" like a distressed airline on the OTC dropping a liquidation bombshell on Dec 18th. 🎄
$HRBR is selling its core assets for $113M, but many questions (and issues) remain...
substacktools.com/sharex/N86zi...
$HRBR is selling its core assets for $113M, but many questions (and issues) remain...
substacktools.com/sharex/N86zi...
December 19, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Nothing says "Happy Holidays" like a distressed airline on the OTC dropping a liquidation bombshell on Dec 18th. 🎄
$HRBR is selling its core assets for $113M, but many questions (and issues) remain...
substacktools.com/sharex/N86zi...
$HRBR is selling its core assets for $113M, but many questions (and issues) remain...
substacktools.com/sharex/N86zi...
Haiku of the Day for "Behavioral Edge = Triage + Bicycle + Kill Criteria?"
Write kill rules before
You fall in love with the stock.
Cold logic saves you.
substacktools.com/sharex/gGz9y...
Write kill rules before
You fall in love with the stock.
Cold logic saves you.
substacktools.com/sharex/gGz9y...
December 18, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Haiku of the Day for "Behavioral Edge = Triage + Bicycle + Kill Criteria?"
Write kill rules before
You fall in love with the stock.
Cold logic saves you.
substacktools.com/sharex/gGz9y...
Write kill rules before
You fall in love with the stock.
Cold logic saves you.
substacktools.com/sharex/gGz9y...
@intouchinsight $INX.V has voluntarily entered a "Bridge Year." + Sacrificed short-term capital efficiency to fund two internal start-ups: a merchandising turnaround and an AI tech stack.
+ A lot is going on beneath the stagnant headline Q3 results:
substacktools.com/sharex/E2561...
+ A lot is going on beneath the stagnant headline Q3 results:
substacktools.com/sharex/E2561...
December 18, 2025 at 5:47 PM
@intouchinsight $INX.V has voluntarily entered a "Bridge Year." + Sacrificed short-term capital efficiency to fund two internal start-ups: a merchandising turnaround and an AI tech stack.
+ A lot is going on beneath the stagnant headline Q3 results:
substacktools.com/sharex/E2561...
+ A lot is going on beneath the stagnant headline Q3 results:
substacktools.com/sharex/E2561...
@ISS_Aviation $ISSC reported strong results & introduced 2029 targets (250M revenue / ~25-30% EBITDA margins).
An unusual post format for me, but the numbers are strong, and the target is ambitious.
My initial reaction and valuation math:
substacktools.com/sharex/KJ3QM...
An unusual post format for me, but the numbers are strong, and the target is ambitious.
My initial reaction and valuation math:
substacktools.com/sharex/KJ3QM...
December 18, 2025 at 3:15 PM
@ISS_Aviation $ISSC reported strong results & introduced 2029 targets (250M revenue / ~25-30% EBITDA margins).
An unusual post format for me, but the numbers are strong, and the target is ambitious.
My initial reaction and valuation math:
substacktools.com/sharex/KJ3QM...
An unusual post format for me, but the numbers are strong, and the target is ambitious.
My initial reaction and valuation math:
substacktools.com/sharex/KJ3QM...
Haiku of the Day for "Margin × Turnover: A Fresh Look at ROIIC Through DuPont's Lens"
Track how new dollars
Earn through margin or through speed.
Strategy revealed.
substacktools.com/sharex/fXLwb...
Track how new dollars
Earn through margin or through speed.
Strategy revealed.
substacktools.com/sharex/fXLwb...
December 17, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Haiku of the Day for "Margin × Turnover: A Fresh Look at ROIIC Through DuPont's Lens"
Track how new dollars
Earn through margin or through speed.
Strategy revealed.
substacktools.com/sharex/fXLwb...
Track how new dollars
Earn through margin or through speed.
Strategy revealed.
substacktools.com/sharex/fXLwb...
Haiku of the Day for "Adjusting SaaS Profits & ROIC For Churn"
Ten percent churn means
Ten years of subscription life.
Spread costs truthfully.
substacktools.com/sharex/OoE8A...
Ten percent churn means
Ten years of subscription life.
Spread costs truthfully.
substacktools.com/sharex/OoE8A...
December 16, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Haiku of the Day for "Adjusting SaaS Profits & ROIC For Churn"
Ten percent churn means
Ten years of subscription life.
Spread costs truthfully.
substacktools.com/sharex/OoE8A...
Ten percent churn means
Ten years of subscription life.
Spread costs truthfully.
substacktools.com/sharex/OoE8A...
Let's start with the second pass of Haikus...
Haiku of the Day for "'Float' & Invested Capital"
Deferred revenue
Cancels cash out on both sides
Add back gross profit.
substacktools.com/sharex/PiQbN...
Haiku of the Day for "'Float' & Invested Capital"
Deferred revenue
Cancels cash out on both sides
Add back gross profit.
substacktools.com/sharex/PiQbN...
December 15, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Let's start with the second pass of Haikus...
Haiku of the Day for "'Float' & Invested Capital"
Deferred revenue
Cancels cash out on both sides
Add back gross profit.
substacktools.com/sharex/PiQbN...
Haiku of the Day for "'Float' & Invested Capital"
Deferred revenue
Cancels cash out on both sides
Add back gross profit.
substacktools.com/sharex/PiQbN...
@IDTCorporation 20% growth in the crown jewel (NRS), expanding margins in Fintech, and a historic profit crossover.
Yet, $IDT trades at an adjusted Owner Earnings yield of ~14%.
My thoughts about Q1 FY26, a "hidden" asset, and intangibles:
substacktools.com/sharex/TRApl...
Yet, $IDT trades at an adjusted Owner Earnings yield of ~14%.
My thoughts about Q1 FY26, a "hidden" asset, and intangibles:
substacktools.com/sharex/TRApl...
December 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
@IDTCorporation 20% growth in the crown jewel (NRS), expanding margins in Fintech, and a historic profit crossover.
Yet, $IDT trades at an adjusted Owner Earnings yield of ~14%.
My thoughts about Q1 FY26, a "hidden" asset, and intangibles:
substacktools.com/sharex/TRApl...
Yet, $IDT trades at an adjusted Owner Earnings yield of ~14%.
My thoughts about Q1 FY26, a "hidden" asset, and intangibles:
substacktools.com/sharex/TRApl...
Haiku of the Day for "Mind the Gap (Part II): Correcting the Calculus of Intangibles"
Expense growth times life,
Halved to find the asset base,
True capex revealed.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
Expense growth times life,
Halved to find the asset base,
True capex revealed.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
December 14, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Haiku of the Day for "Mind the Gap (Part II): Correcting the Calculus of Intangibles"
Expense growth times life,
Halved to find the asset base,
True capex revealed.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
Expense growth times life,
Halved to find the asset base,
True capex revealed.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
Happy 3rd Advent!
I realized my previous method for adjusting Owner Earnings for intangibles was too optimistic & fixed it.
Today, I propose a practical way to account for intangible growth investment w/o inflating earnings or building complex schedules.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
I realized my previous method for adjusting Owner Earnings for intangibles was too optimistic & fixed it.
Today, I propose a practical way to account for intangible growth investment w/o inflating earnings or building complex schedules.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
December 14, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Happy 3rd Advent!
I realized my previous method for adjusting Owner Earnings for intangibles was too optimistic & fixed it.
Today, I propose a practical way to account for intangible growth investment w/o inflating earnings or building complex schedules.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
I realized my previous method for adjusting Owner Earnings for intangibles was too optimistic & fixed it.
Today, I propose a practical way to account for intangible growth investment w/o inflating earnings or building complex schedules.
substacktools.com/sharex/-1M3Q...
Haiku of the Day for "La Grande Complication: How To Value Hidden Options in Ring-Fenced Balance Sheets"
Consolidated
Math assumes you own the loss,
But the lender does.
substacktools.com/sharex/P1eE1...
Consolidated
Math assumes you own the loss,
But the lender does.
substacktools.com/sharex/P1eE1...
December 13, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Haiku of the Day for "La Grande Complication: How To Value Hidden Options in Ring-Fenced Balance Sheets"
Consolidated
Math assumes you own the loss,
But the lender does.
substacktools.com/sharex/P1eE1...
Consolidated
Math assumes you own the loss,
But the lender does.
substacktools.com/sharex/P1eE1...
Haiku of the Day for "The Discomforts of my Investing Style"
Red numbers persist,
Conviction wrestles the price.
Hold or exit? Wait.
substacktools.com/sharex/Hkhed...
Red numbers persist,
Conviction wrestles the price.
Hold or exit? Wait.
substacktools.com/sharex/Hkhed...
December 12, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Haiku of the Day for "The Discomforts of my Investing Style"
Red numbers persist,
Conviction wrestles the price.
Hold or exit? Wait.
substacktools.com/sharex/Hkhed...
Red numbers persist,
Conviction wrestles the price.
Hold or exit? Wait.
substacktools.com/sharex/Hkhed...
Haiku of the Day for "The Architecture of Understanding: From Synapses to Serendipity"
Neurons fire, then wire.
Knowledge webs spin, thoughts connect.
Learning never stops.
substacktools.com/sharex/6YZFg...
Neurons fire, then wire.
Knowledge webs spin, thoughts connect.
Learning never stops.
substacktools.com/sharex/6YZFg...
December 11, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Haiku of the Day for "The Architecture of Understanding: From Synapses to Serendipity"
Neurons fire, then wire.
Knowledge webs spin, thoughts connect.
Learning never stops.
substacktools.com/sharex/6YZFg...
Neurons fire, then wire.
Knowledge webs spin, thoughts connect.
Learning never stops.
substacktools.com/sharex/6YZFg...
Haiku of the Day for "To the Moon, or Sinking? Separating 'Rockets' from 'Torpedoes'"
Machines learn the truth:
Strong balance sheets, lean profits —
Winners hide plainly.
substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
Machines learn the truth:
Strong balance sheets, lean profits —
Winners hide plainly.
substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
December 10, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Haiku of the Day for "To the Moon, or Sinking? Separating 'Rockets' from 'Torpedoes'"
Machines learn the truth:
Strong balance sheets, lean profits —
Winners hide plainly.
substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
Machines learn the truth:
Strong balance sheets, lean profits —
Winners hide plainly.
substacktools.com/sharex/_s4tD...
Haiku of the Day for "The Financial Fingerprints of a 'Scaled Economies Shared' Business"
Margins stay steady,
Customers gain from the scale.
Costco’s quiet moat.
substacktools.com/sharex/3Vvu2...
Margins stay steady,
Customers gain from the scale.
Costco’s quiet moat.
substacktools.com/sharex/3Vvu2...
December 9, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Haiku of the Day for "The Financial Fingerprints of a 'Scaled Economies Shared' Business"
Margins stay steady,
Customers gain from the scale.
Costco’s quiet moat.
substacktools.com/sharex/3Vvu2...
Margins stay steady,
Customers gain from the scale.
Costco’s quiet moat.
substacktools.com/sharex/3Vvu2...
IWG $IWG.L is no longer a real estate company; it’s a platform that just opened ~1,000 locations for negligible net capital cost.
The market seems to price it as a recessionary landlord. The financials show a tech-enabled franchise model.
substacktools.com/sharex/sgcm2...
The market seems to price it as a recessionary landlord. The financials show a tech-enabled franchise model.
substacktools.com/sharex/sgcm2...
December 9, 2025 at 10:58 AM
IWG $IWG.L is no longer a real estate company; it’s a platform that just opened ~1,000 locations for negligible net capital cost.
The market seems to price it as a recessionary landlord. The financials show a tech-enabled franchise model.
substacktools.com/sharex/sgcm2...
The market seems to price it as a recessionary landlord. The financials show a tech-enabled franchise model.
substacktools.com/sharex/sgcm2...
Haiku of the Day for "Mind the Gap: An Intangible Twist on Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings"
R and D spending
Hidden growth masked as spending.
Mind the gap, find gems.
substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...
R and D spending
Hidden growth masked as spending.
Mind the gap, find gems.
substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...
December 8, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Haiku of the Day for "Mind the Gap: An Intangible Twist on Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings"
R and D spending
Hidden growth masked as spending.
Mind the gap, find gems.
substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...
R and D spending
Hidden growth masked as spending.
Mind the gap, find gems.
substacktools.com/sharex/bKBZA...