www.patreon.com/posts/144654...

Fantasy points per game data was taken from Fantasy Pros (2013-2024) & Pro Football Reference (2006-2012)

For each season, the PPG does not include the final week of the NFL regular season as the majority of fantasy leagues do not include the final week of

And you can’t really blame his larger drop off on astronomical 2024 numbers where regression can be more extreme

Barkley’s RB1 PPG in 2024 was the 3rd lowest in the of the 19 RB1’s since 2006

Brian Westbrook: 20.3 PPG (2008)
Devonta Freeman: 21.5 PPG (2015)
Saquon Barkley: 22.2 PPG (2024)

Regarding overall RB rank, the average PPG rank the year after an overall RB1 finish is RB8.8

Barkley is also well below this avg, currently ranked as the overall ~RB15

(Same table re-posted)
You can see in the table that the average PPG drop-off the next year following an RB1 finish is 6.9, meaning RB1s, on average, score 6.9 fewer PPG that next season

Through 12 games, Barkley is below avg at -8.1 PPG

2006-2024 comprises 19 seasons

Of the 19 overall RB1’s, six played fewer than 8 games the following season, which is my PPG minimum threshold

So that leaves 13 instances from 2006-2024 where an RB1 has a “next year” of a PPG and PPG overall rank to compare

That is our data set
👇

Each of these tables & the rookie WR tables I posted earlier are available for free at my Patreon:

www.patreon.com/posts/144572...

2nd Table: Market Share

PPR PPG
Games played
Snap share
Rush yards share
RB opportunity share
Target share

Second chart: Market Share Stats

PPR PPG
Games played

Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR: Incorporates target share and air yards share)

Snap share
Route participation
Target share
Targets per route run (TPRR)

Thanks to @clrx.bsky.social for pointing out the error

These and playoff SOS heat maps available at my Patreon:
www.patreon.com/posts/144411...

TE Next 4

WR Next 4

QB Next 4

DST Next 4

You’re right. Not sure what happened there, I’ll fix it