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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 28

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Failed recalls deepen Taiwan’s political gridlock. Plus: German mayor apologises after city suggests Taiwan's flag be removed. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/failed-rec...

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 24

The Taiwan scenarios 4: The catastrophe. The world must convince China that the road to Taipei is lined with peril, not prizes. If Beijing acts, it faces the wrecking of its global standing. Preventing conflict is not Taiwan’s burden alone. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 23

The Taiwan scenarios 3: Day zero. Taiwan would not just collapse, capitulate or hand itself over. While it has been outpaced by the scale of China’s military developments, it is more capable than many assume. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 22

The Taiwan scenarios 2: Warning signs. At first, it may not be easy to see what’s afoot. The difference between China’s routine coercion of Taiwan and early signs of serious escalation to take control of the island may not be clear. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 21

Greg is missing out the sentence Allan Behm, seasoned analyst, said before that:

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 21

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai to visit Paraguay via U.S. next month. Plus: Beijing vows punishment over Taiwan’s tightened residency rules for mainland spouses. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lai-to-vis...

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 21

The Taiwan Scenarios 1: Subversion, Quarantine, Blockade, Invasion. ASPI has wargamed President Xi Jinping’s options for subjugating Taiwan. We tried four scenarios, the details of which will be presented in this and three more daily articles this week. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

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Reposted by Nathan Attrill

Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · Jul 17

'International partners have begun to pay closer attention to Taiwan’s experience. Officials in Taipei have shared intelligence with counterparts abroad and positioned their counter-espionage campaign as part of a broader effort to resist authoritarian influence,' writes Nathan Attrill.

How Taipei is fighting back against Beijing’s spies | The Strategist

Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—m...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 17

Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—more than in the previous two years combined. www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-taipei-i...

How Taipei is fighting back against Beijing’s spies | The Strategist

Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—m...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 14

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Allies resist US push for Taiwan war commitments. Plus: China bans dual-use exports to eight Taiwan defense entities. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/allies-res...

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 9

Imagine the stuff that goes on in that Weixin group chat from hell.

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 9

Beijing’s coercion campaign against Taiwan is entering a more litigious phase. While military drills and cognitive warfare remain staples of its coercive playbook, China is now intensifying the systematic use of law to target Taiwan’s democracy. www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-taiwa...

China’s ‘Taiwanese separatist’ hotline shows expanding lawfare strategy | The Strategist

Beijing’s coercion campaign against Taiwan is entering a more litigious phase. While military drills and cognitive warfare remain staples of its coercive playbook, China is now intensifying the system...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

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Reposted by Nathan Attrill

Fergus Ryan @fergus.bsky.social · Jul 8

China wants to add AI to the FTA with Australia.

Here’s why that’s a dangerous idea, & what’s really at stake if we say yes.

AI isn’t just another export sector. It’s infrastructure, ideology, & surveillance all rolled into one.

My take (gift link): www.theaustralian.co...

Opening systems to Chinese AI is a risk we can’t ignore

There’s one thing China’s ambassador to Australia got right in a call to add artificial intelligence to the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement: “China has always viewed Australia and China-Australia relations from a strategic and long-term perspective.”

www.theaustralian.com.au

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 8

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: 'Han Kuang 41' exercises to simulate PLA invasion. Plus: Fear of China keeps world timid on Taiwan, UK ex-defense chief says. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/han-kuang-...

'Han Kuang 41' exercises to simulate PLA invasion

Plus: Fear of China keeps world timid on Taiwan, UK ex-defense chief says

stateofthestrait.substack.com

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 4

Isn't he head of publishing at MOFA now?

Reposted by Nathan Attrill

Fergus Ryan @fergus.bsky.social · Jul 2

I just donated to cover China Digital Times’ @chinadigitaltimes.net server costs for the year.

As a China researcher, I rely on their work heavily.

If you care about cutting through censorship and propaganda, consider supporting them too.

giving.chinadigitaltimes.net/page/FUNGRHB...

Keep CDT Online: Donate for Server Expenses

China Digital Times (CDT) is a non-profit organization that relies on institutional and individual donations to sustain our operations. In recent months, we have lost a significant portion of our inst...

giving.chinadigitaltimes.net

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jul 1

The idea that Taiwan might one day declare independence misses the core of the cross-strait issue. For many Taiwanese, especially those born after martial law, independence isn’t a destination; it’s the condition they already live under. www.aspistrategist.org.au/every-day-is...

Every day is Independence Day in Taiwan | The Strategist

In a speech kicking off his ‘10 Talks on the Country’ series on 22 June, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te declared that Taiwan ‘is of course a country’, citing its democratic system and separate histo...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jun 30

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan VP defiant after foiled Chinese plot in Prague. Plus: Taiwan puts anti-dumping duties on Chinese beer and steel. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwan-vp-...

Taiwan VP defiant after foiled Chinese plot in Prague

Plus: Taiwan puts anti-dumping duties on Chinese beer and steel

stateofthestrait.substack.com

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Reposted by Nathan Attrill

Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · Jun 25

'China’s use of trade bans and incentives has often been surgically targeted at politically sensitive constituencies, especially rural districts with high concentrations of fruit and fish farmers known to lean toward Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.

Beijing’s economic playbook for Taiwan: big carrots and small sticks | The Strategist

Beijing’s approach to economic coercion against Taiwan is less about brute force and more about baiting. While China has long threatened economic punishment to deter what it sees as separatist behavio...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jun 25

While China has long threatened economic punishment to deter what it sees as separatist behaviour, the past several years have shown a clear pattern: big carrots, but small sticks. www.aspistrategist.org.au/beijings-eco...

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jun 24

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan’s recall elections could reshape its China policy Plus: UK warship's passage through Taiwan Strait monitored by PLA. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwans-re...

Taiwan’s recall elections could reshape its China policy

Plus: UK warship's passage through Taiwan Strait monitored by PLA

stateofthestrait.substack.com

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jun 17

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Huawei and SMIC blacklisted as Taiwan seeks to guard critical tech. Plus: Taiwan defense minister says 2 carriers in Pacific show China's expansionist agenda. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/huawei-and...

Huawei and SMIC blacklisted as Taiwan seeks to guard critical tech

Plus: Taiwan defense minister says 2 carriers in Pacific show China's expansionist agenda

stateofthestrait.substack.com

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Reposted by Nathan Attrill

Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · Jun 12

'In the contest between Taiwan’s limited resources and China’s coercive toolkit, the ground is shifting. The next defection may not be a surprise; it may be confirmation that Beijing’s long game is working,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.

Taiwan has 12 diplomatic partners left. Who’ll drop it next? | The Strategist

Beneath Taiwan’s high-profile fight for global recognition lies a parallel contest in capitals scattered across the Caribbean and the Pacific. This is Beijing’s relentless campaign to isolate Taiwan d...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

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Nathan Attrill @nathanattrill.bsky.social · Jun 12

Since 2016, Taiwan has lost the recognition of 10 countries to China; just 12 remain. The question is not whether that number will fall again, but which will be next. www.aspistrategist.org.au/taiwan-has-1...

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