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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 5d

It's nice to be quoted by Thomas Deltombe in the
@newleftreview.bsky.social
on France's memory politics and, in the case of the Duclert Report and Rwanda, how they limit accountability and facilitate closer military ties with a profoundly authoritarian regime. newleftreview.org/sidecar/post...

Thomas Deltombe, The Secret War — Sidecar

France and Cameroon.

newleftreview.org

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 6d

If you're looking for (potential) good news in these dark times, look to Madagascar where corrupt autocrat Andry Rajoelina might get overthrown. www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...

Madagascar: la Solidarité syndicale se joint à la mobilisation et appelle au départ de Rajoelina

Les syndicats de travailleurs de Madagascar accentuent la pression sur le président Andry Rajoelina, une semaine après le début du mouvement de contestation inédit qui secoue actuellement la Grande Îl...

www.rfi.fr

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 7d

It's always interesting see when governments mismanage their own election rigging. Gabon's authorities have messed up the recent legislative polls so badly that the public electoral body has had to denounce them. www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/2...

Au Gabon, l’organe de contrôle ACER fustige la mauvaise organisation des élections

Au Gabon, les critiques sur la mauvaise organisation des élections législatives et locales du samedi 27 septembre se multiplient. Outre les candidats malheureux et plusieurs partis politiques, c’est…

www.rfi.fr

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Reposted by Nathaniel Powell

Julian Sanchez @normative.bsky.social · 8d

The endgame for all of this is constructing a military that will obey orders when ordered to fire on citizens. That's the throughline to half of what Trump is doing.

jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 8d

yeah, this is hegseth straightforwardly announcing that it is free play time for bigots in the ranks. and together with his comments on standards, he clearly wants to purge as many women, black and brown people as he can from the armed services. a white man's military.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 8d

Hegseth: "We are overhauling an inspector general process that has been weaponized, putting complainers and poor performers in the driver seat. We are doing the same with the equal opportunity policies. No more frivolous complaints, no more anonymous complains ... no more walking on eggshells."

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 9d

Savimbi was also an amazingly charismatic operator-- he charmed his way through many a Western capital. Not that anyone minded the blood on his hands.

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 9d

A hell of a guy!

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 9d

I always say that African politics carries many lessons for the United States.

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Reposted by Nathaniel Powell

Marielle Debos @debos.bsky.social · 9d

We could just write the same about the US right now.

Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 9d

An apt US intelligence analysis of Zaire, March 1979.

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 9d

An apt US intelligence analysis of Zaire, March 1979.

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Reposted by Nathaniel Powell

Jonathan Cohn @jonathancohn.bsky.social · 20d

theonion.com/netanyahu-th...

Netanyahu: ‘These So-Called Genocide Experts Have Probably Never Committed A Genocide In Their Lives’

JERUSALEM—In response to an independent United Nations inquiry concluding that Israel is committing an ongoing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a defiant...

theonion.com

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 21d

This isn't to say French media reports are necessarily wrong in substance -- the recent purge suggests real fears, either within the junta itself and/or in the wider military -- but analysts should understand that ultimately this is little better than rumor and Kremlinology. 5/end

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 21d

It's also worth noting that in governments like Mali's, in which information is highly compartmentalized and hoarded, even very senior military officials may have limited or distorted insights into the political and power dynamics at the very top of the state. 4/

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 21d

The approach of the French media has been to often uncritically report the assertions of anonymous sources, some of whom are likely French government, which reflect partial and possibly self-interested views. 3/

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 21d

Understanding the internal dynamics of regional juntas is obviously important, but it's likely a nearly impossible exercise in this low-information environment. While tensions within juntas are historically the norm, we're reduced to semi or mis-informed speculation. 2/

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · 21d

Really good piece by @tangibihan.bsky.social
challenging reporting in some French media (notably Jeune Afrique) over Mali's internal junta dynamics and alleged tensions. It also illustrates a broader point that analysts should probably take to heart. 1/
www.worldpoliticsreview.com/mali-junta-m...

A Mysterious Military Purge in Mali Belies the Junta’s Unity

Despite the rumors about recent arrests of military officers, Mali’s junta has been characterized more by unity than by divisions.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · Sep 5

Possibly the only honest thing the man has ever done. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/u...

Trump Is Renaming the Defense Department the Department of War

www.nytimes.com

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · Aug 29

That's not a welcome message for outsiders (like me) who disapprove of military rule and especially its accelerated repressive turn. But it might behoove us to reflect on the role of outsiders, and especially Westerners, in helping to delegitimize the civilian political class.

Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · Aug 29

Of course, it is difficult to know how far these views differ from those in rural areas---I'd imagine quite substantially in some ares, but it seems that the ruling military authorities maintain substantial political legitimacy within their urban strongholds.

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · Aug 29

It also reflects the seemingly high popularity enjoyed by the junta, and especially Assimi Goïta, at least in urban areas. Junta narratives of military success, Kidal's recapture, the unpopularity of civilian politicians, and relative urban security may help explain this.

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · Aug 29

Those results will obviously make a lot of people scratch their heads, but it's worth noting that the polling was only apparently done in regional capitals, not rural areas where over half of Malians live and where deteriorating security is most likely to be felt.

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · Aug 29

And is consistent with the years following the 2021 coup, although we do see a slight decline:

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · Aug 29

This is true across all regions, including the far north and the areas most affected by jihadist violence:

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · Aug 29

I'm finally digging into some of the results of the
@fesonline.bsky.social's2025 "Mali Mètre" survey published in May. The results are striking. Eg a large majority see the overall situation of the country as improving:

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Nathaniel Powell @natkpowell.bsky.social · Aug 21

Yes, but there is also a tremendous amount that has been declassified.

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