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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 11h

And his two recent Stirring Tropics papers with Victor Mayta, which give a new picture of the tropical circulation
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...
doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...

doi.org

Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 11h

Adames & Kim (2016) -- one of his first moisture mode/MJO papers
doi.org/10.1175/JAS-...

Adames & Wallace (2017) -- really careful analysis of the tropical atmospheric signature of El Nino
doi.org/10.1175/JAS-...

journals.ametsoc.org

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 11h

Amazing news, Angel is such a deserving MacArthur Fellow!

Angel has transformed how we think about tropical dynamics and wave-convection interactions, and his work does such a great job blending pen-and-paper theory with observations.

Here are a few of my favorite papers of his:

UW–Madison Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences @uwmad-aos.bsky.social · 13h

We are thrilled and proud to share that AOS prof Ángel F. Adames Corraliza has been named a 2025 MacArthur Fellow!

Congrats, Ángel! The department is ecstatic for you. In addition to the MacArthur announcement linked below, check out the UW–Madison news release here: go.wisc.edu/r0ff84

Ángel F. Adames Corraliza

Advancing understanding of the forces that drive tropical weather patterns.

www.macfound.org

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 2d

... and suppresses ordinary convection, but when storms do break, they’re stronger. This is similar to a dynamic we expect to see in a lot of places in a warmer world: fewer moderate rains, more violent extremes.

Link: www.science.org/doi/epdf/10....

More extreme Indian monsoon rainfall in El Niño summers

Extreme rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon can be destructive and deadly to the world’s third-largest economy and most populous country. Although El Niño events in the equatorial Pacific are kn...

www.science.org

Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 2d

Interesting new @science.org paper by Spencer Hill et al shows that El Nino events weaken India's average monsoon rainfall, but *intensify* extreme precip.

They also give a neat mechanism: subsidence during El Niño dries the mid-troposphere over India...

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 6d

Scientists reanalyzing Cassini data found evidence that Enceladus’ subsurface ocean contains complex prebiotic molecules. Work like this shows the importance of sustained investment in planetary science missions and of good data management and continuity

www.theguardian.com/science/2025...

Prospect of life on Saturn’s moons rises after discovery of organic substances

Scientists studying water vapour plume from Enceladus find presence of complex molecules that could harbour life

www.theguardian.com

Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 13d

Link for more: sio-climatephysics.com/notes-1/1hf8...
3/3

The Possible Futures of Climate Modeling — Scripps Climate Physics

Like most areas of science, progress in climate science is mainly driven by new capabilities. More powerful computers give us access to new classes of simulations, and new observing systems (satellite...

sio-climatephysics.com

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 13d

Each approach comes with uncertainties about whether it will succeed, and interesting questions about equity and reproducibility. And this debate is happening just as we're starting to have long enough records to identify robust model-obs discrepancies
2/3

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · 13d

I wrote a short piece on the debate about the future of climate modeling: Should we pool resources to do km-scale "masterpiece" runs or focus on using ML to build data-driven models that can still do large ensembles? 1/3

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · Feb 8

This would leave no indirect costs going to the UC general fund (salaries, tuition support, equipment) or to the Opportunity Fund (faculty recruitment, GSR support, equipment)

Numbers from the 23/24 UC budget request
www.ucop.edu/uc-health/_f...

www.ucop.edu

Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · Feb 8

~2/3 of federal research awards come from the NIH. If the mean OH rate is 50-60%,then capping at 15% would cut total UC overhead cost recovery by about 50%, to ~$500 mill

If other agencies implemented the same OH cap, indirect costs would more or less cover grant administration

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · Feb 8

Some context on the reduction in NIH overhead rates:

In 2021-22 UC's operating budget was ~$47 billion of which $987 mill came from indirect cost recovery (~2%). 20% of this went to grant and contract administration, ~45% to UC General Fund and ~35% to the UC "Opportunity Fund"

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · Feb 6

Info based on this report:
amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/02/...

Life-saving weather warnings are on the line as Trump and DOGE target America’s forecasting agency | CNN

The National Weather Service, which is suffering its lowest staffing in decades, is staring down further cuts and the nomination of an agency leader they are wary of.

amp.cnn.com

Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · Feb 6

True “efficiency” would come from maximizing what we get out of these obs and developing (and executing) a plan for integrating ML into everything NOAA/NWS does

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · Feb 6

Hopefully the damage is just 5-10% staff cuts and “searching high and low for DEI”

It’s disappointing this is all a group of tech-minded people can think to do. Now should be an exciting time for thinking about modernizing NOAA: a golden age of earth obs +rapid ML advances in WF

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Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · Jan 18

The CO2 data come from
@Scripps_Ocean
Mauna Loa observatory

scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-rec...

Data from the ML observatory were also used to first show that CO2 increases faster during El Niño years

t.co/QKae46bQCH

New Record for Annual Increase in Keeling Curve Readings

In 2024, the yearly average level of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) rose faster over the prior year than ever before in the 67-year-old Keeling Curve record.

scripps.ucsd.edu

Nick Lutsko @nick-lutsko.bsky.social · Jan 18

2024 was the warmest year on record and it also had the largest recorded increase in atmospheric CO2 (+3.58ppm).

These are related: a strong El Niño drove much of the warming and reduced carbon uptake by drying out Northern Hemisphere land

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