Interesting that the figure is so high in Denmark, which has always been seen as one of the more Eurosceptic members (and ironically perhaps the country with attitudes most similar to the UK on membership).

This looks like good politics. Lab as dominant voice among progressive parties, while exploiting/generating divisions on the right (and aside from that, it also had the benefit of being the right thing to do on its own terms).

This seems a major potential flaw the “2-bloc” analysis that has become so trendy recently: voters have to actually believe they are in those blocs so they can vote efficiently under FPTP. But if, for example, Green voters simply don’t see Lab as part of their tribe, you move from a bloc to a split.

I can also claim a Bill Nighy siting in Soho. He very graciously stepped into the road to allow me to push our pram down the narrow pavement.

I'm sure you are right. Additionally, a lot will also come down to other financial burdens, such as how over-leveraged places got during the low-interest 2010s.

Politically, Labour need to have a hard think about this. Pandering to a Reform immigration agenda on international student access will lead to unis going bust in precisely the seats where Reform might win (e.g. Southend, where Lab won with 35% of vote in 2024 & Reform got 17%).

While thinking about this, another problem is the information rich environment of contemporary politics. MRPs, for example, can easily be abused to make claims about individual constituencies, even when the margins of error are astronomic. They will I am sure be appearing on many election leaflets.

The other risk is that it confuses what is Labour’s best ultimate electoral goal, which is being seen as the leader of a multi-party coalition of left parties using tactical voting. Such an arrangement requires voters to have info about who to vote for, so party system instability is a real problem.

I agree that would be the major risk.

But the danger is now that Lab becomes an irrelevance in the by-election campaign, inflating the idea of insurgent parties on both the left & right are in the ascendency.

There doesn't seem to be any doubt that a Burham candidacy would have prevented that happening, as it would have likely then been Burham vs. Reform.

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