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Nick Huntington-Klein

@nickchk.com

8.3K followers 280 following 1K posts

Econ prof at Seattle University. Book The Effect http://theeffectbook.net out now! Substack https://nickchk.substack.com/ Twitter @nickchk

theeffectbook.net

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Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 3d

It's fairly common for places to only have espresso though right?

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 4d

i have actually gone into a coffee shop and the barista didn't know what drip coffee was. tbf it took about ten seconds to figure out to ask for "brewed coffee" instead and also the barista was maybe 16

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 4d

i have seen several vague posts and have no idea what it's about and am not about to look it up

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 4d

I am looking at some API documentation which has the exact call you want written in Python, JS, etc... and also an "AI prompt" tab which is just an AI prompt that says "write me requests code in Python...", the correct response for which would be the exact code that's already in the other tabs

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 4d

That's the kicker. They legally owe me a single dollar and they can't even just make it a single one dollar discount

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 4d

Hell yeah the class action payment came through. I'm gonna be rolling in it

You are eligible for up to a $1.00 credit to be applied to ParkMobile’s service fees. The code provides a $0.25 discount on ParkMobile’s service fees and may be used up to four times for a total discount of $1.00. The code will expire on October 8, 2026. For residents of California, the code will not expire. The code will only work for accounts associated with email addresses that are in the class.

How to Redeem:

Add P@rkMobile-$1 to your ParkMobile account.

The discount code provides a $0.25 discount on ParkMobile’s service fees, and it may be used up to four times for a total discount of $1.00.

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 4d

I was out last night and the ~20-year-olds next to me were talking about buying CDs

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 12d

forgetting the day of week thing, for example, if she is saying "one of my children is a boy" as just, like, a true statement, then all the calculations apply

if by saying "one of my children is a boy" she means "exactly one of my children is a boy", yknow, like a normal person would do, it changes

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 12d

so now, knowing that they celebrate a birthday makes two unrelated variables related.

A's bday -> today is someone's bday <- B's bday

same thing allows the answer in this problem to not be 50% since

A's gender and day-of-week -> someone is a Tuesday Boy <- B's gender and day-of-week

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 12d

another angle to seeing why the answer is not 50% is to consider it a form of collider bias

among married couples, assume A's birthday is unrelated to B's birthday. knowing A's bday tells you nothing about B's.

if you observe them celebrating a bday, then if it's NOT A's bday, it IS B's

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 12d

(or rather 2/3 is the correct answer)

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 12d

66% is the correct answer if you don't specify the day of the week and just say that one child is a boy

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 12d

i don't think that matters as long as the why-she's-telling-you and equal-probability gender & days-of-week assumptions hold

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 12d

for the record, 51.8% is indeed correct, conditional on some unstated assumptions about why she is telling you this, and both genders & days-of-week being equally likely. if you do not understand why this is the case yet or have not been convinced yet that's fine, but it is correct.

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 12d

A variant of the two-girl problem is making the rounds these days and I am unable to not click on the comments sections every time. I'll say that I definitely prefer this (an actual interesting question) vs. pointless PEMDAS "math" internet arguments. But man people love being confidently wrong.

Mary has two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability the other child is a girl? The answer is 51.8%.

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 15d

Lateral used one of my submission questions! Also lol I am apparently two months behind on my podcasts youtu.be/CiSJ2enIkg4?...

Why Benny's songs are so similar

YouTube video by Lateral with Tom Scott

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 17d

my most seinfeld-like behavior is that when i schedule-send an email i will schedule it for like 10:34am instead of 10am so it doesn't look like i scheduled it

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 19d

i'm doing one of those HR video training courses. this one's on hazing. the woman who is doing the voiceover has a natural speaking cadence that makes it sound like she secretly thinks the hazing activities she's describing are actually pretty funny

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · Sep 5

New The Effect materials today: introductions to basic coding and data manipulation in R, Stata, and Python. Get the wheels turning on using these languages with data with these intro pages and exercises:
nickchk.com/Coding%20and...
nickchk.com/Coding%20and...
nickchk.com/Coding%20and...

Introduction to Working with Data: R Version

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · Sep 4

using Excel to work with data, when you have to, becomes WAY more bearable if you start working with Tables and learn to use XLOOKUP

graphs are unforgiveable though. it's not even like the hard stuff is saved for super weird custom designs. Drawing a two-group line graph is crazy!

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · Sep 4

i dare you to read this webpage, which is 20 pages long if you paste it into word, showing how to replicate the ggplot behavior

+geom_vline(x=0)

www.storytellingwithdata.com/blog/2018/8/...

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · Sep 4

it's wild how difficult it is to make a graph in excel. like this is supposed to be easy mode right?

Reposted by Nick Huntington-Klein

Adam S. Hersh, Ph.D. @ahecon.bsky.social · Sep 2

Nearly 600 economists, Nobel Laureates sign open letter supporting due process for Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve independence for the good of our economy and democracy. Great work from @tderyugina.bsky.social organizing such a quick response. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Over 450 Economists Back Cook, Fed Independence in Open Letter

Prominent economists are rallying behind Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook after President Donald Trump moved to fire her based on allegations that she committed mortgage fraud.

www.bloomberg.com

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · Aug 28

at my house🎶everybody's got covid inside, except for me and my baby🎶https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyV3zCq1OHM

Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · Aug 22

finding quantities of jupiter retrograde to dilute has to be a real chore