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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 8h

I agree. I think Russia is worried about adverse trends, and this is why it is pushing harder against Europe. The goal is to shift the balance of resolve in its favour in order to undermine the balance of resources tilting against it @keirgiles.bsky.social

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 8h

On ammo, weapons, tanks, missiles, fighters the answer has generally been no first and then yes. Slow escalation of effort. Challenging e.g. Russian fighters, even in our own airspace, is a next step. Hangs in the balance.

Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 23h

I have long been struck that "archival" and "archrival" are only one letter apart...

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 1d

Time may no longer be on Russia's side.

US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase

Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

www.iiss.org

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 1d

Thank you! We are all waiting to find out. The drone and fighter incursions make this ever more urgent.

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 2d

Fixing Democracy: have Arend Lijphart on the podcast en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arend_L...
He is the leading scholar of variations in democratic design, and their consequences for performance. See esp. his "Patterns of Democracy" (1999). Indispensable for any debates about the future of democracy.

Arend Lijphart - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 6d

Another great listen. Robert's remark that much of 2024 Labour intake is from NGOs and charities is interesting.

Ted Grant was a name in 1980s. I don't recall him as prominent as Hatton, Livingstone, Heffer etc. Amazing to learn he was a living link to 1930s - early Trotskyism, Cable Street etc.

Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 10d

Exactly as predicted. It was smart of Zelensky to propose a trilateral meeting, as Putin was certain to reject it --which he now has. Putin cannot meet Zelensky.

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 10d

Just excellent. I'd listen to these two all day. Kinnock as the "last great platform orator" is a compelling perspective. Please consider doing an episode on what happened to British political oratory, and why!

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 13d

Right in the middle! A distinguished position.

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 14d

I'm sure that's how Putin addresses Trump...

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 16d

Ah, were you there? Next time I hope!

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 16d

Bukharin's widow, Anna Larina, told me in the early 1990s that she had read "Darkness at Noon"...

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 16d

Delighted to speak at this truly excellent conference.
#HSF25

Helsinki Security Forum @helsinkisecurityforum.fi · 17d

Sunday #HSF2025 opened with a pressing topic: Russia and the future of European security order.

European security is about resources and resolve, said Senior Fellow @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social.

“We do have the material capabilities – it’s up to us to summon the political will to act.”

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 23d

Very good. Origins of PR in Belgium etc was esp interesting. And the fact the Lloyd George shifted so radically...

I don't think this ep. mentioned UK's extensive use of non-FPTP systems, esp at local/regional level, and even in Parliament: www.parliament.uk/about/how/el...

Voting systems

www.parliament.uk

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Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies

Brian Taylor @bdtaylor-su.bsky.social · Aug 22

"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime."

Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social

Russia–Ukraine: peace looks more remote than ever

Russia has not scaled back its ambitions and America will not pressure it to do so. Territorial issues and security guarantees are currently second-order issues. The war remains intractable.

www.iiss.org

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · Aug 22

Re the comparison with "Orwellian", and foretelling of totalitarianism, I hope you will do an episode on the Stalinist show trials, ideally Bukharin's (and its afterlife in Koestler's Darkness at Noon).

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Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies

Samuel Bendett @sambendett.bsky.social · Aug 17

euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/17/u...

Ukraine sanctions Russia’s international AI drone networks - Euromaidan Press

Companies across Russia, China, and Belarus participate in Moscow's autonomous AI warfare production chains.

euromaidanpress.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · Aug 17

Excellent, with a fine Wildean twist at the end.

And good that your Wilde episode didn't quite slip into "martyr" framing and at least mentioned the young men and boys he misused.

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · Aug 15

Rarely has a major summit been so significant, hastily prepared, and uncertain in outcome. My latest for IISS 👇

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Alaska: moment of truth?

The imminent summit in Alaska could well prove a decisive moment for Europe, Russia, Ukraine and the United States.

www.iiss.org

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · Aug 14

I'd listen to these two talk about anything.

The end of this conversation would naturally lead into discussion of Universal Basic Income, and its implications for attitudes to, and valorisation of, work.

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Reposted by Nigel Gould-Davies

Emma Burrows @eburrows.bsky.social · Aug 12

Trump & Putin’s Alaska summit is a “profoundly alarming moment for Europe.” Putin might persuade Trump to accept Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine or lift sanctions. That would cause a “really serious” transatlantic alliance split @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social apnews.com/article/euro...

Europe's sidelined leaders urge Trump to defend security interests at his summit with Putin

European Union leaders have urged U.S. President Donald Trump to defend their security interests at Friday's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine.

apnews.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · Jul 22

Absolutely fascinating in essence and in detail.

And I've heard Edmund Burke's views described in many ways, but never as "complete bollocks".

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · Jul 22

Putin has thrown away a strong diplomatic hand. He is far more focused on closer ties with China and DPRK than on a compromise in Ukraine. He still believe he can win the war. But time may no longer be on his side. / end

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Russia’s bad month of diplomacy

Trump’s relationship with Putin has never been worse. If NATO implements its new spending commitments, and Trump his sanctions, time may no longer be on Russia’s side.

www.iiss.org

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · Jul 22

A bad diplomatic month for Russia. See also US bombing of close ally Iran, NATO 5% commitment (and warm atmospherics), EU's big new sanctions package.

How different from Vance at Munich, transatlantic disarray, Zelensky's Oval Office meeting etc. Something has shifted. /3

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