Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 1d

Yeah but “2nd inning!”

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 2d

Are s and p 500 fundamentals pretty bad right now too? All assets are elevated.

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 7d

All bets off due to tariff uncertainty, but it seems like dramatic tariff announcements ultimately become less severe tariffs in reality....so the narrative STILL just seems to be that the economic cruise liner is slowing but not sinking.

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 7d

Am I crazy or do sharp declines in the soft data lead declines or plateaus in the hard data. Similarly, it looks like sharp increases in soft data lead moderate increases in the hard data...

1

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 11d

What nonsense. He bought himself a year tops.

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 13d

Not to be confused with numerator blindness, which is the case with autism, where we were just far more blind (unlikely to diagnose it) 20-30-40 years ago.

1 1

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 15d

A bit of a house of cards with 2 scenarios that could play out:
1) productivity does NOT rise dramatically, the market eventually crashes
2) productivity rises dramatically, companies shed employees and the big caps benefit…. But unemployment rises? big caps get bigger / have nots have even less.

George Pearkes @peark.es · 15d

This chart rules

anthony restaino @anthonycr.bsky.social · 16d

ah shit, I had swapped lambda and coreweave around to make the diagram more sane and forgot to move the super micro funding arrow from coreweave to lambda. fixed

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 15d

🐍 eating 🐍

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 19d

We knew from the get go it was gonna be kiss the ringanomics

2

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 19d

Isn’t the point that “the internet’s” effect on productivity was similarly hard to gauge?

1

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 21d

Where can one listen/view/read them? Google not pulling much up beside “25 bp cut the right move”

1

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 21d

Yes, “too late Jerome” is basically a mea culpa isn’t it?

1

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 21d

Previously known as the “it’s the economy, stupid” think tank.

1

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 23d

Got it. Kinda the point of the article. My bad.

1

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 23d

Doesn’t owning US assets expose one to the dollar anyhow?

1

N Issa @nnnn.bsky.social · 27d

Looking like he turned a perfectly good economy into a stagflationary one.... i rarely blame/credit presidents for the state of the economy, but in this case, it's pretty clear it's policy blunders.