www.nbcnewyork.com/news/sports/...

UPDATE) Down goes Trudeau.

Down goes Olaf Scholz.

Down goes Yoon Suk Yeol.

With apologies to James Carville, "it's the incumbency, stupid."

Hopefully that's enough to get you through dinner with the family this week 🙃

If not, here are some more from last year: youtu.be/Z90aen0LHAs

Happy New Year everyone!

5) Should technology companies be required to publish information about the algorithms used to recommend content?

Dem - 74% yes
GOP - 68% yes

4) Should companies be required to provide paid family leave for full-time employees?

Dem – 91% yes
GOP - 57% yes

3) Should we require financial literacy education in public high schools?

Dem - 90% yes
GOP - 85% yes

2) Should we have laws restricting corporate spending in elections?

Dem - 83% yes
GOP - 75% yes

10) Our election results weren't really a reflection of Trump or Harris.

They were merely part of a global trend of "throwing out the bums" in hope for something better - regardless of party.

According to 538, more than 80% of incumbent parties around the world lost seats or vote share in 2024.

(while Mark Zuckerberg also owns every msg you've ever typed on FB, IG, or WhatsApp - incl. the private ones - their terms of service at least seem to indicate they have agreed not to share your private data)

9) So while lots of bright Democrats have ideas how best to strategize & campaign ahead of 2026 and 2028...

Don't be surprised if:
- dissatisfaction with the status quo again dominates all conversations, buoying Dems in 2026
- we see a repeat in 2028, leading to another presidential party switch.

8) Finally - it's not just America; the whole world is frustrated & dissatisfied.

Voters have been pushing out incumbents all over the globe -- liberal, conservative, moderate.

(Notably, one of the only POPULAR world leaders, Narendra Modi, presides over a country that restricts social media)

7) Social media is:

- how most voters now get their information (see below)

- not incentivized to educate you on all of candidates' policies

- incentivized to share only the most enraging policies and cultural flashpoints

6) Dems take heat for bad messaging since their policies poll VERY well -- even among the GOP -- yet, few voters know about them. (if you need citations, just DM me)

But social media likely played a much bigger role in shaping opinions of the candidates...

5) Trump ran a competent campaign, but benefited bigly from general voter dissatisfaction.

EXHIBIT 1 - huge swings among Muslim voters, even though Trump's overtly more pro-Israel & anti-Palestinian than Harris

EXHIBIT 2 - big gains in Northeast communities where he raised their taxes in 2017

4) The result: voters reliably take out their frustration every two years on the party in charge of the White House:

2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024.

Again, without correlation to:
- party
- prices
- unemployment
- stock market
- immigration numbers
- campaign messaging

3) This biz model is why you don't get chronological posts from your friends...but instead get inflammatory content from ppl you're not close to.

It's locked us into a pattern of constant frustration, regardless of:
- which party is in charge;
- unemployment figures;
- the cost of groceries.

2) Have you ever been frustrated or enraged while scrolling social media?

Guessing from your Bluesky presence....yes?

Well, that's the social media business model.

Enragement = engagement = profits.