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Reposted by Noble Francis

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

As it is, year-to-date, deliveries in 2025 were still 25% lower than in 2022 & it will take a few years just to get back to those levels, never mind the levels of house building government keeps saying will be built in this 5 year parliament. (13/end)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

Deliveries year-to-date (January-August) in 2025 were still 9.8% higher than in 2024, but the year-to-date figure has been slowing considerably since March & deliveries & starts are likely to continue to slow as we approach the end of the year. (12/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

... as always, this would be heavily dependent on a significantly improvement in demand in the key Spring selling season for house builders. (11/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

If housing sentiment & demand remain subdued in Autumn, house builder starts & completions would continue to slow &, realistically, sustained house building recovery would only be likely from Spring 2026 &... (10/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

New residential development in London is also affected by the general requirement that 35% of these homes are affordable or social housing, which affects viability, and the higher average house prices, which affect demand. (9/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

As for high-rise, the Building Safety Regulator delays after planning approval remain 6-9 months at Gateway 2 stage & 3-4 months at Gateway 3 stage. These delays mainly affect new development in cities, especially London, where most new homes are flats. (8/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

Plus, homebuyer sentiment & demand won’t be helped by uncertainty over who bears the burden of the inevitable tax rises (for the second successive year) in the lead-up to the government’s Autumn Budget, whcih is on 26 November, later than usual. (7/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

Sentiment & demand will be affected if November's expected interest rate cut is pushed back into February, which appears increasingly likely. Plus,... (6/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

Demand in areas of better affordability remains solid but site viability is a problem due to all of government's additional costs on house building. Conversely, in areas where site viability has been sustained, demand and affordability are key problems. (5/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

The annual rise has been slowing since 2025 Q1, partly due to the comparison with a gradually rising base last year (as demand in 2024 Q1 was very low), but mainly due to the slowdown in home buyer sentiment, demand, & sales rates since March. (4/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

August is generally a relatively slow month for deliveries & starts, but the fact that deliveries are now significantly lower than the same month a year ago (which was a low level of deliveries & house building), is a significant concern. (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

Deliveries in August 2025 were 19.4% lower than in July, 8.8% lower than a year ago, & 30.7% lower than the 2018-19 average, which was pre-pandemic & before any of the other major recent disruptions. (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · 1d

UK brick deliveries are a useful proxy for house building starts in the absence of monthly house building starts data & the latest data from the Department for Business & Trade cover August 2025. (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

Thank you very much for the heads up Mary! It is much appreciated. I'll have a look into and see if that is occurring more widely. Best wishes, Noble

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

Very interesting, thanks. Is that in the South West or also in other areas such as London & the South East?

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

... funding new build directly themselves or buying Section 106 properties from house builders, which may need work on later, which may just add more costs onto housing associations & local authorities down the line. (12/end)
#ukhousing #housing

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

... a bigger issue for housing associations & local authorities is that their focus is mainly on dealing with urgent, high-profile issues on their existing stock (mould, leaks, fire safety etc.), their focus isn't on... (11/n)
#ukhousing #housing

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

... government's announcement of short-term injections of funding in Autumn Budget 2024 & Spring Statement 2025 as these are insufficient to cover increases in construction costs since the initial funding. However,..(10/n)
#ukhousing #housing

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

Looking at public house building, activity in June 2025 was 2.5% higher than in May but 11.4% lower than a year earlier & 40.7% lower than in January 2020. Housing associations & local authorities remain highly financially-constrained despite... (9/n)
#ukhousing #housing

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

... funding new build directly themselves or buying Section 106 properties from house builders, which may need work on later, which may just add more costs onto housing associations & local authorities down the line. (12/end)
#ukhousing #housing

Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

... a bigger issue for housing associations & local authorities is that their focus is mainly on dealing with urgent, high-profile issues on their existing stock (mould, leaks, fire safety etc.), their focus isn't on... (11/n)
#ukhousing #housing

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

... also where demand/affordability are the greatest constraints so house building in London has been especially affected on both the demand & supply sides over the last 12-18 months. (8/n)
#ukhousing #housing

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

... this growth is partially offset by sharp falls in high-rise project starts due to 6-9 month delays, after planning, at the Building Safety Regulator & this disproportionately affects new housing in cities, & especially, London, which is... (7/n)
#ukhousing #housing

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Noble Francis @noblefrancis.bsky.social · Aug 14

... also reported that demand had softened in Q2 (& in July) & that housing associations & local authorities are not buying S106 properties on private developments, which hits site viability. But, the greater issue in private house building is... (6/n)
#ukhousing #housing

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