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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · 8d

The conference is based on a series of papers we published in the Journal of Strategic Studies. Many are open access (no paywall!).

airtable.com/appGGluMUVck...

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · 8d

Here's the link for rego: airtable.com/appGGluMUVck...

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Airtable is a low-code platform for building collaborative apps. Customize your workflow, collaborate, and achieve ambitious outcomes. Get started for free.

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · 8d

The End of MAD?

Join me, Steve Fetter, @jaysankarans.bsky.social, TD MacDonald, Ton Stefanik, @lauraegrego.bsky.social, @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social, and Charlie Glaser to discuss whether technological developments are undermining mutually assured destruction.

Link for virtual rego in next post.

a man in a shirt and tie is screaming with his hands in the air .

ALT: a man in a shirt and tie is screaming with his hands in the air .

media.tenor.com

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Reposted by James Acton

Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · Aug 13

What exactly is the government hiding in Tucson? Not much, says @nuclear-jim.bsky.social. He got an interesting souvenir there, regardless.

See the first installment of Carnegie Office Hours for more treasures from James (if not nuclear secrets) here: buff.ly/dlUzF6n

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Aug 1

Yes, absolutely.

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Aug 1

We now go live to the Kremlin for Putin's reaction:

a man in a suit and tie is smiling while sitting at a table with his hands folded .

ALT: a man in a suit and tie is smiling while sitting at a table with his hands folded .

media.tenor.com

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Aug 1

I feel pretty strongly the @nytimes.com has the wrong framing here. This isn't serious; it's pathetic.

I'd suggest something like:

"Trump throws social media hissy fit invoking nukes after public spat with ex-president of Russia."

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Aug 1

Ooops. Wrong handle: @scientistsorg.bsky.social

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Aug 1

From Nuclear Notebook in
@BulletinAtomic

tandfonline.com/doi/figure/1...

Figures & data: United States nuclear weapons, 2025

Figures and data for United States nuclear weapons, 2025

tandfonline.com

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Aug 1

As much as I deplore nuclear signaling by tweet--can't believe I just wrote that--I would NOT necessarily assume there's a been change to the US nuclear posture. The U.S. always keeps ~4/5 SSBNs at sea ready to fire.

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Aug 1

From @newyorker.com

www.newyorker.com/magazine/201...

Success Academy’s Radical Educational Experiment

Inside Eva Moskowitz’s quest to combine rigid discipline with a progressive curriculum.

www.newyorker.com

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Aug 1

Ahem

(Deleted earlier version, which was missing caption!)

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 31

Ah, yes, that crucial ninth significant figure...

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 29

Good gracious, Ignatius!

Why I disagree with the normally excellent David Ignatius; recent oped on Iran.

James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

Ignatius's oped is written as if it's a news story. The "news" in this case is that--SURPRISE!--an Israeli source backed up claims by the Israeli government! (3/n)

x.com/james_acton3...

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 29

The case for attacking Iran relied on emphasizing its technical prowess.

The case that strikes were successful requires claiming that Iran is technically incompetent.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/25/i...

There’s More Than One Way to Build a Bomb

Iran doesn’t need to rebuild its damaged facilities to sprint for a nuclear weapon.

foreignpolicy.com

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

And, finally, given that hope is not a strategy, what's your plan to keep Iran in the NPT and to accept inspections--including of the 60% HEU that Israeli officials acknowledged survived the strikes. (12/12)

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

Given the U.S. developed the uranium metal production process in the 1940s in a university lab with equipment from the 1920s, why do you suppose Iran will struggle to replicate the process outside of Isfahan? (11/n)

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

The U.S. did not even try to collapse the very deep tunnels at Isfahan where most of Iran's HEU was stored. Are you concerned that, in reality, the United States has clearly signaled the limits of ability to destroy underground facilities with nonnuclear weapons? (10/n)

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

What's Israel's plan for dealing with the HEU that Israeli officials acknowledge survived the attack?

Does Israel know the location of Iran's stockpile of centrifuge components, which have not been under monitoring since 2021 following the Iran Deal's collapse? (9/n)

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

To close, some questions for Ignatius' source.

What happens if "activities" are being conducted too far underground for Israel to destroy? Do you expect the U.S. to attack again? If yes, what happens if the activities are too deep for the U.S. to reach? (8/n)

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

Finally re timeframe, as Eric has observed, the claim that Iran is 1-2 years from the bomb is actually similar to pre-war estimates, including from NETANYAHU himself. (7/n)

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

Ignatius is also inconsistent. Back in 2015, while generally supportive of the Iran Deal, he argued its 10-year timeframe (again, misleading) meant Obama was making a "big bet."

Now, an attack with much shorter-term effects is a success. (6/n)

washingtonpost.com/opinions/aft...

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

Moreover, both Netanyahu and Ignatius are being inconsistent in defining success.

Netanyahu attacked the Iran Deal on the misleading grounds that its limits only lasted 10 years. Now Israel is claiming a 1-2 year delay is a success. (5/n)

bsky.app/profile/nucl...

James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jun 24

Military action is graded on a curve. Example #65,485.

Netanyahu (2025): We set Iran's nuclear program back by 2-3 years!

Netanyahu (2015): "Virtually all the restrictions on Iran's nuclear program will automatically expire in about a decade...it's the blink of an eye ."

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

In fact, the source is actually walking back earlier Israeli claims!

Previously, Netanyahu said Iran's program had been set back 2-3 years. Now Israel is saying 1-2 years. (4/n)

washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

U.S. scrambles to determine impact of strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

Trump says Iran’s nuclear program was obliterated, but questions remain about Iran’s capability and the location of hundreds of pounds of highly enriched uranium.

washingtonpost.com

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James Acton @nuclear-jim.bsky.social · Jul 28

Ignatius's oped is written as if it's a news story. The "news" in this case is that--SURPRISE!--an Israeli source backed up claims by the Israeli government! (3/n)

x.com/james_acton3...

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