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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jul 11

Highly recommend his latest if you haven't read already

www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/...

www.bankofengland.co.uk

Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jul 11

Taylor has official become my favourite BOE speech writer. Lovely mix of theory, history and practical policymaking. Made for the job.

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Apr 28

You can also see similar sized drops in arrivals to Canada

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Apr 28

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, yoy travel is useless because of the shift in Easter timing. See how the major effect is in Easter celebrating regions??

While I believe there will be SOME effect on travel, not this much this quickly

Adam Tooze @adamtooze.bsky.social · Apr 26

This morning’s Chartbook Top Link featured how brand-damage threatens US tourism. Visit the link in the comment to read.

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Apr 18

“He's trying to create a narrative and set of common reference points that transform issues associated with complex systems into digestible ones with easy solutions. To give him his credit, that's his greatest talent.”

Useful framing for the world.

Yakov Feygin @buddyyakov.bsky.social · Apr 17

building-a-ruin.ghost.io/tariffs-ideo...

I was thinking about your book while writing this rant about how stupid the entire thing is. It's an attempt to use personal charisma and prowess to change a very non-human system, with its own rules and logic.

Tariffs, Ideology, Complex Systems (a bit of a rant)

Long time no post. I think between the last time I used this blog instead of my day job(s) to write the actual book Building a Ruin came out. You should buy it. I have returned because I have meant to...

building-a-ruin.ghost.io

Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Apr 15

open.substack.com/pub/ocecon/p...

spe.org.uk/reading-room...

Book Review: The Paradox of Debt by Richard Vague

Vague's book explores how debt fuels growth, inequality and crisis—insightful, if imperfect.

open.substack.com

Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Apr 15

I recently reviewed The Paradox of Debt by Richard Vague for the Society of Professional Economists.

Check it out at the links below ⤵️

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Apr 13

Yep I saw and agree there is an underlying issue. Just not as much as suggested by the yoy charts in the latest data

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Apr 12

right. But this is looking at the change in behaviour since last year.

Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Apr 12

The trend for Canada look pretty similar suggesting a good chunk is due to Easter.

You could argue spillover of Trump on to Canada but, equally, you'd expect some tourists cancelling US trips to rebook in Canada.

We'll have to wait for April data to get the full picture.

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Apr 12

While the trend is clear, I find it hard to look past the shift in Easter for those yoy charts.

Shouldn’t we compare to other similar destinations? What’s the yoy change of Europeans to Canada?

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Reposted by Ollie Clark

Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · Mar 28

If the past is a guide to the future (it's not), what's the chance that UK fiscal headroom will be eaten ahead of the Oct Budget *entirely* by rising gilt yields?

@ruthcurtice.bsky.social has the chart.

www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/unsu...

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Mar 14

guy on train eating twix like a chicken wing

Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Feb 14

www.forkingpaths.co/p/the-false-...

The False Gospel of Stuff and Status

We have become disciples of a flawed creed. To chase passion and value people is a much wiser way to live; or Ikigai, Detectorists, and the real meaning of life.

www.forkingpaths.co

Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Feb 14

Glad to have palate cleansers like this pass through the incessant information flow

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Feb 9

Doesn’t sound too different from the recent cohorts tbh - mostly house shares with mates in zones 2 and 3. It’s the new apprentices that are getting the rawest deal! Pretty much no option but to live at home.

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Reposted by Ollie Clark

FT Alphaville @alphaville.ft.com · Jan 30

Morning. on.ft.com/3PWkGZ6

FTAV’s further reading

[FREE TO READ] The Fartcoin stage; Marge Simpsonomics; Tulsi; old glowing anuses in Florida

on.ft.com

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jan 24

Why’s Trump started reading like he can’t see full stops? Feel like they need to sort out the autocue formatting. Bro’s gonna pass out.

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jan 17

come again?

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jan 16

Despite a Q4 fall in default rates on unsecured lending, which includes credit cards, banks expect a jump in Q1. They're recent forecast performance has been great though

Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jan 16

UK banks have reported increase demand for mortgages and willingness to supply them in Q4 2024. But demand is expected to decrease in Q1, and that's before the recent increases in mortgage rates

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jan 15

Taylor's key moments: 🤺
- "it’s time to get interest rates back toward normal to sustain a soft landing"
- "in my view the [growth] risks are now more skewed to the downside"
- "it makes sense to cut rates pre-emptively to take out a little insurance against this change in the balance of risks"

Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jan 15

Alan Taylor’s first speech seems to paint him as a strong dove. Given he replaces the hawk-leaning Haskel, it could mark a sizeable shift in the MPC’s direction.

But hard to say if it has been hammed up to help bring yields back down. If so, beware.

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Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jan 12

Check it out here: ocecon.substack.com/p/marge-simp...

#economics #macro #econ

Inbox | Substack

open.substack.com

Ollie Clark @oc-econ.bsky.social · Jan 12

In my new Substack I use Marge's purchase of a hot pink suit to explore:
👉 What does history tell us about buying GDP growth?
👉 Are purchases of some goods "better for the economy" than others?
👉 Can we develop a framework to help economists understand the growth impacts of spending patterns?

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