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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 16h

"Countries such as Tunisia are base hits, not a home run like China, Ewoldt said. Creating new markets helps over time, but if U.S. growers can’t sell their beans soon, Ewoldt worries about getting enough cash to finance his farm." From @wsj.com last night.
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 17h

US timber exporters are quietly adding language to procurement contracts to bring their supply chains in line with the EU's proposed deforestation rules, spurring tensions with southern landowners.

My latest: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...

EU deforestation rules shaping U.S. timber contracts, hitting ag land conversions

Major timber exporters are quietly changing their contracts with timber suppliers to ensure their supply chains are complaint with forthcoming EU rules, despite lingering uncertainty over when and how...

www.agri-pulse.com

Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 1d

SCOOP in this morning's Daybreak newsletter: USDA quietly moves $13B as officials ready farm aid; senators offer new details

Read more: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...

Daybreak Oct. 7: Scoop: USDA quietly moves $13B as officials ready farm aid; senators offer new details

The Trump administration has quietly moved some $13 billion from a fund used to deliver tariff assistance to farmers in President Trump’s first term to the Agriculture Secretary’s office.

www.agri-pulse.com

Reposted by Oliver Ward

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 3d

US prices behaving pretty much as you'd expect after tariffs, not least given time lags and the various mark-ups on top of import costs www.ft.com/content/f4bd...

Impact of Trump tariffs is beginning to show in US consumer prices

Trade levies are starting to drive up costs for goods from cans of soup to car parts

www.ft.com

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 5d

Sen. Hoeven: Shutdown could delay tariff assistance announcement

www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...

Hoeven: Shutdown could delay tariff assistance announcement

Top Senate Ag Committee appropriator Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., told reporters Friday that the ongoing government shutdown could force the administration to delay unveiling tariff support to farmers.

www.agri-pulse.com

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Reposted by Oliver Ward

Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 5d

As always, @steventdennis.bsky.social’s rule of deals in DC is correct. Deals happen like:
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
Maybe
NO
NO
*Framework reached*
NO
HELL NO
NO
YES

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 7d

Sen. Hoeven says lawmakers are working on changes to Section 32 to allow tariff revenues to fund assistance to farmers. The goal is “to make sure that we're ready to go when the president and secretary decide it's time to move forward,” he told me.

More here: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...

Lawmakers may expand USDA spending authority to enable farm aid package

President Donald Trump wants to use tariff revenue to bail out farmers harmed by his trade policy, but experts say he’ll need help from Congress to do that, and GOP lawmakers are working on lifting k...

www.agri-pulse.com

Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 8d

Senate Democrats write to Trump to insist he abandon plans to give financial support to Argentina. The move had rankled US soybean farmers, who face competition from Argentina in the Chinese market.

More context here: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...

Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 9d

The vast majority of the $7 bn in grain exports that Argentina secured during its two-day export tax holiday were soybeans, soymeal and soybean oil -- with around 75 million bushels headed to China. Only ~17% of the value came from corn, wheat, and barley. From BCR via Susan Stroud of No Bull.

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 13d

But Fischer isn't writing anything off. "Don't underestimate USDA attorneys and their ability to find authority for a president to be able to do what he wants, when he wants," Fischer said. "But honestly, Congress has a lot to say too."

Read more: www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...

4/4

Trump says some tariff revenue will go to farmers, but there are legal questions

President Donald Trump on Thursday told reporters that the administration will direct some tariff revenue to farmers.

www.agri-pulse.com

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 13d

A program known as Section 32, which is funded by tariff revenues, could be a vehicle. But there are strict limits on how much can go to supporting farmers' purchasing power, Texas A&M's Bart Fischer said during Agri-Pulse's Ag Outlook Forum today. Congress would have to remove those handcuffs 3/4

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 13d

In Trump 1.0, he used the Commodity Credit Corporation to bail out farmers. But this isn't directly funded by tariffs. Its $30 billion borrowing authority has also been depleted & hasn't yet been topped up by Congress. There are also other farm support payments that have to come out of this 2/4

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 13d

Trump's comments today on directing some tariff revenues to farmers begs the question: "how?" 1/4

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 13d

Ag groups press officials to use critical minerals list to cut fertilizer prices
www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...

Ag groups press officials to use critical minerals list to cut fertilizer prices

Commodity groups, ag trade associations and private companies appealed to administration officials on Thursday to designate key fertilizer and herbicide inputs as “critical minerals” to shore up suppl...

www.agri-pulse.com

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 14d

US soybean producers are frustrated by Bessent's offer of financial assistance to Argentina. The move also comes on the heels of Arg. suspending its grain export tax, which spurred a flurry of orders from China for Argentine soybeans this week and contributed to a further slide in US price

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Reposted by Oliver Ward

Rob Francis @robfranciseu.bsky.social · 14d

For WTO wonks - The European Commission has now given up trying to justify the deal with the US as being compatible with article 24. “It isn’t credible that we can turn this into an FTA” Sabine Weyand said today.

This is a change from what they were saying before

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Reposted by Oliver Ward

David J. Lynch @davidjlynch.bsky.social · 14d

wapo.st/46zBP2R

Wall Street bets against Trump on tariff refunds, while importers suffer

Wall Street investors are buying up claims to potential tariff refunds, betting that the Supreme Court will strike down President Donald Trump’s signature economic policy.

wapo.st

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 14d

Ocean carriers are rotating Chinese-made ships out of US routes ahead of new US port fees set to begin next month. Some are reassuring customers that they won't impose new surcharges to pass along the fees. But US ag remains wary & sees incoming challenges.
www.agri-pulse.com/articles/235...

Carriers promise not to raise prices over new port fees; U.S. ag wary

Ocean carriers are reassuring customers that they won’t be hit with surcharges when the U.S. slaps new port fees on Chinese-made or operated ships next month; shipping experts and ag industry represen...

www.agri-pulse.com

Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 16d

Tariffs now account for almost a fifth of annual household taxes, up from less than 5% before Trump took office -- from Apollo Academy.

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 17d

Rollins touts Taiwan’s ag purchases, but questions remain
www.agri-pulse.com/articles/234...

Rollins touts Taiwan’s ag purchases, but questions remain

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on Friday said Taiwan has pledged to purchase some $10 billion of U.S. ag products over the next four years. But exports were already on course to top that figure,...

www.agri-pulse.com

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 19d

In the Canadian press today (CBC), tariffs have driven Canadian supermarkets away from US food products. Even with tariffs lifted, there's no guarantee those trade relationships will be rebuilt.

www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 21d

After yesterday's drama, the House will vote later today on a rule that would, among other things, shorten the block on future tariff votes from March to January.

rules.house.gov/sites/evo-su...

Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 21d

China could snub U.S. ag products for months

Chinese buyers are still avoiding U.S. soybeans and other commodities, a move many analysts see as Beijing's effort to maximize leverage in ongoing trade discussions. Absent a political settlement, m...

www.agri-pulse.com

Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 21d

More likely, former USDA economist Fred Gale says, is that profit margins for Chinese crushers turn negative toward the end of the year. Under such a scenario, US soybeans, which have already seen falling prices, could become more attractive. 3/4

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Oliver Ward @oliward.bsky.social · 21d

Theoretically, Chinese crushers could likely limp through until the next Brazilian soybean harvest -- around March time -- if the political will exists, Shawn Arita at NDSU tells me. But this would mean sacrificing some quality and potentially overpaying for beans, as Brazilian prices rise. 2/4

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