Open Interest Analyst
@openinterestanalyst.com
My general equity research for institutions is published on Bloomberg, FactSet, London Stock Exchange and AlphaSense. Custom research for equity portfolio managers is behind a paywall. https://www.openinterestanalyst.com
The October 2025 return for SPY was +2.34% which is below the 13 year avg of positive Octobers of 4.61% but above the 20 year October return of 1.34% (2005-2024). See Oct 4 post.
The table below is Nov SPY performance for 2005 - 2024. 20 year avg +2.36%, 16 positive years = 3.75%. #stockmarket
The table below is Nov SPY performance for 2005 - 2024. 20 year avg +2.36%, 16 positive years = 3.75%. #stockmarket
November 2, 2025 at 6:24 PM
The October 2025 return for SPY was +2.34% which is below the 13 year avg of positive Octobers of 4.61% but above the 20 year October return of 1.34% (2005-2024). See Oct 4 post.
The table below is Nov SPY performance for 2005 - 2024. 20 year avg +2.36%, 16 positive years = 3.75%. #stockmarket
The table below is Nov SPY performance for 2005 - 2024. 20 year avg +2.36%, 16 positive years = 3.75%. #stockmarket
Below is a chart of TMQ’s stock price and it is suspicious that it traded 31.7 million shares, the DAY BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT. TMQ’s 60 week volume average is about 500k. Who knew about the deal before the Oct 7 announcement date?
October 8, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Below is a chart of TMQ’s stock price and it is suspicious that it traded 31.7 million shares, the DAY BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT. TMQ’s 60 week volume average is about 500k. Who knew about the deal before the Oct 7 announcement date?
Below is a financial outline of key metrics of TMQ. To think that the US government is investing in an exploration company ($1.12 billion mkt cap) without sales is suspicious. I pulled the financial stats from ChatGPT. See next panel.
October 8, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Below is a financial outline of key metrics of TMQ. To think that the US government is investing in an exploration company ($1.12 billion mkt cap) without sales is suspicious. I pulled the financial stats from ChatGPT. See next panel.
The announcement by trump of a government investment in Trilogy Metals formed in 2012 with no sales is suspicious. With 72 companies in my metals and my minerals list, why TMQ? By coincidence Jon Paulson, a trumper owns over 14 million shares. Here is a copy of Paulson’s 13F See next panel.
October 8, 2025 at 5:44 PM
The announcement by trump of a government investment in Trilogy Metals formed in 2012 with no sales is suspicious. With 72 companies in my metals and my minerals list, why TMQ? By coincidence Jon Paulson, a trumper owns over 14 million shares. Here is a copy of Paulson’s 13F See next panel.
To see whether the 2015-2024 fourth quarter stats were outliers (previous post), the 20 year 4th quarter performance of SPY ( 2005 - 2024) showed an average gain +4.24%. Very good considering two dismal years: 2008 (-21.52%) +2018 (-13.52%). #stockmarket
October 5, 2025 at 11:53 PM
To see whether the 2015-2024 fourth quarter stats were outliers (previous post), the 20 year 4th quarter performance of SPY ( 2005 - 2024) showed an average gain +4.24%. Very good considering two dismal years: 2008 (-21.52%) +2018 (-13.52%). #stockmarket
In the graph below is the fourth quarter return for SPY from 2015 to 2024. During that time, there has been only one losing quarter (2018) and the average quarterly return during 10 years has been +5.61% #stockmarket
October 5, 2025 at 10:31 PM
In the graph below is the fourth quarter return for SPY from 2015 to 2024. During that time, there has been only one losing quarter (2018) and the average quarterly return during 10 years has been +5.61% #stockmarket
Below is a table of October performance for SPY from 2005 - 2024. There have been 13 positive years and the average return was 4.61%. The average return for 20 years was +1.34%. For October 1-3, 2025, SPY has added +0.50%. #stockmarket
October 4, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Below is a table of October performance for SPY from 2005 - 2024. There have been 13 positive years and the average return was 4.61%. The average return for 20 years was +1.34%. For October 1-3, 2025, SPY has added +0.50%. #stockmarket
SPY’s Q3 2025 performance of +7.82% is the second best quarter going back to 2015. Below is a table that shows third quarter performance from 2015 to 2024 and the average return for ten years was +1.84%. Only Q3 2020 beats 2025. #stockmarket #spy
October 1, 2025 at 6:18 PM
SPY’s Q3 2025 performance of +7.82% is the second best quarter going back to 2015. Below is a table that shows third quarter performance from 2015 to 2024 and the average return for ten years was +1.84%. Only Q3 2020 beats 2025. #stockmarket #spy
Below is my firm’s crypto watchlist. This group has been massacred during the past 16 and 32 trading days, which is approximately 3 and 6 calendar weeks respectively. Stay away from this space. I added the SPY ETF (S&P 500) for context.
September 7, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Below is my firm’s crypto watchlist. This group has been massacred during the past 16 and 32 trading days, which is approximately 3 and 6 calendar weeks respectively. Stay away from this space. I added the SPY ETF (S&P 500) for context.
EEM has taken off in 2025 even with severe tariffs. See the countries represented by EEM. Ignore predictions and market narratives. Markets move counterintuitively and instincts are likely wrong. The price performance of your portfolio against sector/index benchmarks is what counts, nothing else.
August 30, 2025 at 5:46 PM
EEM has taken off in 2025 even with severe tariffs. See the countries represented by EEM. Ignore predictions and market narratives. Markets move counterintuitively and instincts are likely wrong. The price performance of your portfolio against sector/index benchmarks is what counts, nothing else.
This table measures the performance of 21 major indices from 1-21-25 to 8-29-25. Crypto bros must be disappointed with president crypto’s impact on bitcoin. On 8-29 open interest increased substantially in bitcoin futures on the decline of 3.27%. Bearish! #bitcoin #markets
August 30, 2025 at 5:46 PM
This chart shows the 50-100-200 daily moving averages of PLTR and stocks routinely correct to key moving averages. For example, Berkshire Hathaway has been below its 200 daily moving average since early July.
August 20, 2025 at 12:58 AM
This chart shows the 50-100-200 daily moving averages of PLTR and stocks routinely correct to key moving averages. For example, Berkshire Hathaway has been below its 200 daily moving average since early July.
Volume on Palantir today was substantially below 6/27/25 and 5/6/25 though the stock lost 11.79% which is approximately the same on 5/6/25 (-12.05%) and more than 6/27/25 (-9.27%). PLTR remains over-bot. More carnage ahead for PLTR. #pltr
August 20, 2025 at 12:58 AM
Volume on Palantir today was substantially below 6/27/25 and 5/6/25 though the stock lost 11.79% which is approximately the same on 5/6/25 (-12.05%) and more than 6/27/25 (-9.27%). PLTR remains over-bot. More carnage ahead for PLTR. #pltr
The Buffett Indicator, also known as Market Cap to GDP, is a long-term valuation indicator for stocks first proposed by Warren Buffett. It is the ratio of total US stock market value divided by GDP. It is now 52% higher than the internet bubble of 2000. #stockmarket
July 27, 2025 at 7:52 PM
The Buffett Indicator, also known as Market Cap to GDP, is a long-term valuation indicator for stocks first proposed by Warren Buffett. It is the ratio of total US stock market value divided by GDP. It is now 52% higher than the internet bubble of 2000. #stockmarket
Below is my list of life insurance companies ranked in descending order 1-year-to-date.
July 3, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Below is my list of life insurance companies ranked in descending order 1-year-to-date.
ARKK is trading at June 2020 levels as the chart below reveals. The late Harvard economist John K. Galbraith said there are two kinds of forecasters. "Those that don't know. And those that don't know they don't know."
July 1, 2025 at 6:24 PM
ARKK is trading at June 2020 levels as the chart below reveals. The late Harvard economist John K. Galbraith said there are two kinds of forecasters. "Those that don't know. And those that don't know they don't know."
As you can see on this longer-term chart, Carvana is approaching its all-time high. This is a danger zone for anyone owning the stock. Major tops made at nearly the same price often signal the end of the move. It is a terrific time to exit.
June 11, 2025 at 4:46 PM
As you can see on this longer-term chart, Carvana is approaching its all-time high. This is a danger zone for anyone owning the stock. Major tops made at nearly the same price often signal the end of the move. It is a terrific time to exit.
Below is the chart of CoreWeave, a company with a 64 billion market cap.
June 7, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Below is the chart of CoreWeave, a company with a 64 billion market cap.
Today, June 5 Tesla experienced its highest single day volume of over 289 million shares while losing 14.26%. This was the highest volume day since January 27, 2023 when Tesla gained 11.0%. The decline was attributed to a threat from soft Taco to withdraw EV credits. #tesla #stockmarket
June 5, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Today, June 5 Tesla experienced its highest single day volume of over 289 million shares while losing 14.26%. This was the highest volume day since January 27, 2023 when Tesla gained 11.0%. The decline was attributed to a threat from soft Taco to withdraw EV credits. #tesla #stockmarket
With the Japanese economy in contraction, long term interest rates at multi-decade highs and reports of rice shortages, most investors would be negative on the Japanese equity market. The reality is markets are not always logical and can behave in ways that are counterintuitive.
May 27, 2025 at 10:44 PM
With the Japanese economy in contraction, long term interest rates at multi-decade highs and reports of rice shortages, most investors would be negative on the Japanese equity market. The reality is markets are not always logical and can behave in ways that are counterintuitive.
