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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 1h

In short: Steamer and OOPSY were the best at projecting pitching and rookie performance. ZiPS did the best for hitters and also performed well with vets.

A composite (average) of all 4 major projection systems is more accurate across the board than any one.

FanGraphs Baseball @fangraphs.com · 1h

Reviewing OOPSY’s Debut Season blogs.fangraphs.com/reviewing-oo...

Reviewing OOPSY’s Debut Season

This article reviews how the OOPSY projections performed in their debut season. Did the rookie system hold its own compared to its more established peers?

blogs.fangraphs.com

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 13h

Well that was easily the most annoying thing that could have happened.

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 13h

Both of these games are getting annoying quickly

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 13h

Both of these games are getting annoying quickly

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

don't

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

Maybe 2/50 or 3/60 with an opt out?

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

If the velocity was down or he was struggling more with control I'd be a little more hesitant. But at the right price I think it's a good bet on upside.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

I'm still in on him on a short deal with opt outs. I see a guy who looks strong with better velocity than he's had in years and a change that still works, but the shape of his breaking balls is inconsistent and that also leads to the occasional hanger. That's a pretty common post-TJS trajectory.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

lol I love Jazz but I also love that this is probably driving Yankees fans insane.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

He has a 16M player option but he'll opt out. Prevailing thought is he'll take another 2 year deal with a better AAV and an opt out after one, then hit the market again off a full platform year. Possible he gets a long-term offer and takes it but it'd be a gamble.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

Boone playing 4-D chess again

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

Back tightness was the last complication he had before ending his rehab and that's exactly what it looks like to me.

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Reposted by D’Janiel Sanchez

Jarrett Seidler @seidler.bsky.social · 14h

Does Aaron Boone know this is an elimination game

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Reposted by D’Janiel Sanchez

Grant Brisbee @grantbrisbee.bsky.social · 14h

Aaron Judge has been leaving his pitches up this entire postseason.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

Nice oppo single from Tony there, but he still looks very stiff to me. Between the shoulder, the labrum and the back, something has to still be bothering him.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

What a glorious slide/flop by Vladdy.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

LOL

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 14h

Shane Bieber's fastball is sitting 93.2 and looks basically all the way back, and his changeup is good, too. But he's really relying on those two pitches and seems a little hesitant to go to his breaking balls, which are OK but inconsistent in shape right now. Should come back with reps next year.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 17h

Tested with an even smaller sample size!!

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

They could probably sign Cease, Eflin, Iglesias and Seranthony for around $60M guaranteed and still be comfortably behind last year's payroll. And potentially get all of those guys on 1-2 year commitments.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

There's some risk he falls off but the team needs proven relievers with late-inning experience and the guy's got 250+ saves. He hasn't had a season worth less than 1 fWAR since 2018.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

It might end up being Kimbrel 2.0 but I'd be in on Raisel Iglesias for like 1/12 and an option.

Velocity was down some last year and he's no longer a 30%+ strikeout rate guy, but he actually bounced back a bit from a career low K% the year before.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

Lewin Diaz hit HOW MANY home runs in Korea??

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

I actually don't think it's a foregone conclusion they'd buy out the option if he's healthy and his heart's still in it. If you could get St. Louis to pay down $15M you could end up with Gray for 2/40. Even at age 36-37 that's not a bad deal. Better than age 37-38 of Merrill Kelly IMO.

D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

To be clear Gray is owed $35M salary next year with a $25M club option for 2027 and a $5M buyout.

So $40M is the minimum guarantee and assumes the buyout. Otherwise it's 2/60.

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D’Janiel Sanchez @oriolesreview.bsky.social · 20h

Sonny Gray + $15M for Juaron Watts-Brown and Twine Palmer 🙂

Cardinals
1:59 What team do you think would actually take the contract of Sonny Gray? Mets, Giants, Phillies, Braves or Orioles have the money, maybe the Angels or Tigers as outside?
Steve Adams
1:59 I don't think anyone would take the whole contract
2:00 $40MM for one year is too steep for Gray -- particularly for a team like the Mets or Phillies, who are third-time luxury payors in the top tier of penalty. It's a 110% tax for them, meaning Gray costs them $84MM for one year.
Cardinals need to eat $10-12MM or so just to move him for no return. Probably $15MM+ to get any kind of semi-decent prospect.

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