Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 56m

But the numbers are also a good reminder that polling early in the parliament is not destiny. May (2016) and Johnson (2021) looked invincible at this point, Cameron (2011) and Thatcher (1980) looked doomed

1 1 8

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 1h

Labour's polling deficit is the largest for any government at this stage of the parliament since John Major was PM

1993 Major -14
2025 Starmer -10
1971 Heath -10
1980 Thatcher -7
2011 Cameron -6
~
1988 Thatcher +7
1966 Wilson +8
2016 May +9
2002 Blair +11
1998 Blair +22

3 1 9

Reposted by Owen Winter

Omar Khan @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social · 1d

I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them

34 580 1.7K

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 1d

Yes, ofc, but in terms of votes Britain is now just as fragmented as France so FPTP will begin to throw out bizarre results like the French 2RS. In 2017 the French system gave LREM a chunky majority, just like we currently have a big Labour majority

2 3

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 1d

Not sure in what way the French system is "PR-like". It historically allowed more fragmentation because of the first round, but Britain is just as fragmented as France now anyway. And in terms of overall seat shares it is just as majoritarian (if not more so) than FPTP

1 1

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 2d

"if polling stays the same" ah

1

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 6d

This May's British Election Study shows Labour in second place in Merseyside's voting intention for the first time since the panel study began in 2014

2 4 22

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 7d

0-7 is the scale used in the question and it has four tick marks because I wanted to split the scale at 3.5, so it is clear that all the points are in the top right quadrant

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 8d

Among people of Indian ethnicity, born in Britain and living in England, 54% rate their Englishness and Britishness the same (compared with 63% of those with a White British ethnicity)

5

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 8d

Unlike Suella Braverman, most British-born people of Indian ethnicity say they identify as English as well as British.

In England, people of all ethnicities treat Englishness and Britishness almost synonymously

5 12 41

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 8d

Ciattarelli surge

3 1 8

Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 8d

Despite the far-right being larger now than 2023, they have fewer allies they might govern with. Makes some combination of centre-left, centrist and centre-right parties quite likely, unless polls move substantially over the next month

1 18

Reposted by Owen Winter

Alexander Clarkson @aphclarkson.bsky.social · 8d

All the jokes and memes aside, Hegseth is now openly acknowledging that the Trump administration wants to ideologically reshape the US military in line with its Far Right authoritarian agenda for America and its neighbours in the Western Hemisphere

12 68 200