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Reposted by Patrice Pottier

EcoEvoRxiv @ecoevorxiv.bsky.social · Jul 30

"A systems-modelling approach to predict biological responses to extreme heat" doi.org/10.32942/X2B...

Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · May 14

Very important study!! Check out the physiological and life-history to experimental evolution for thermal tolerance 👇

Some surprising results that help us better understand trade-offs and physiological mechanisms conferring thermal sensitivity

🐟🌡️

Fredrik Jutfelt 🐠 @jutfelt.bsky.social · May 14

How do fish evolve to tolerate higher temperatures, and are there trade-offs? We explore these questions in our new paper
@natclimate.nature.com led by Anna Andreassen
@annahandreassen.bsky.social

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
🧪🐟🦑

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Reposted by Patrice Pottier

Szymek Drobniak @szymekdr.bsky.social · Apr 10

One of my studies, written with wonderful @itchyshin.bsky.social Sammy Burke @patricepottier.bsky.social Trace Ainsworth & Losia Łagisz earned a #TopCitedArticle badge. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... We showed that coral diseases may get upended by climate change, wiping out most of corals

The impact of rising temperatures on the prevalence of coral diseases and its predictability: A global meta‐analysis

We conducted a global meta-analysis using 30 years of coral reef surveys and sea surface temperature records to identify the interaction between coral disease prevalence and rising ocean temperatures...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Reposted by Patrice Pottier

Alex Gunderson @agunderson.bsky.social · Mar 27

We made the cover

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Cover of the journal "Nature" showing a long-nosed horned frog on leaf litter and the words "Heat Stress: How vulnerable are the worlds amphibians to rising temperatures?"

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 28

Thank you for sharing!

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Reposted by Patrice Pottier

Szymek Drobniak @szymekdr.bsky.social · Mar 26

The latest issue of @nature.com sports a charismatic cover image ooooof... A frog! :) our recent paper on amphibians and the ways global climate change is bound to affect them (www.nature.com/articles/s41...) found its way to the cover of Nature. 💜💚🐸

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 7

Sorry, one of the images was not uploaded properly.

Here's the figure for the validation approach
🧵(6/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

And this media release from @unsw.bsky.social

www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/new...

#UNSWNewsroom

The pot is already boiling for 2% of the world’s amphibians: new study

Amphibians are increasingly vulnerable to global warming, according to new research.

www.unsw.edu.au

Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

You can also check out this @aunz.theconversation.com
article for an easy summary

theconversation.com/hot-frogs-an...

#TheConversation

Hot frogs and sizzling salamanders: climate change is pushing amphibians to their limits

New research shows frogs and other amphibians are already on the brink of overheating in a warming world. Here’s how many will suffer as global temperatures rise.

theconversation.com

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

Please also check out @nicholaswu.bsky.social's fantastic post about this study:

bsky.app/profile/nich...

He's an incredible graphic designer and scientist, and many of the illustrations in this thread/paper are from him.

Nicholas Wu @nicholaswu.bsky.social · Mar 6

New paper in @nature.com led by @patricepottier.bsky.social! We demonstrated global vulnerability of amphibians to warming, threatening 10% of >5,000 species examined. How did we do it? See thread🧵

Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

Huge thank you to @unsw.bsky.social and the E&ERC
for supporting me throughout this research.

I am also incredibly thankful to have been able to do this work on the traditional land of the Bedegal people. I feel gifted to learn from thousands of years of cultural and natural heritage.

🧵(27/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

A massive thank you to all my co-authors @ecophys.bsky.social , @nicholaswu.bsky.social , @agunderson.bsky.social n, Julie Rej, Nayelli Rivera-Villanueva, @pietropollo.bsky.social ,
Samantha Burke, @szymekdr.bsky.social & @itchyshin.bsky.social
I couldn't have done this without you!

🧵(26/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

There is also a dedicated web page hosted in
@github if you would like to go through the analyses and see some additional results and visualisations! 🌟

p-pottier.github.io/Vulnerabilit...

🧵(25/27)

Vulnerability of amphibians to global warming

p-pottier.github.io

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

We explore things in more detail in the paper, so please check it out and let me know if you have any questions!

doi.org/10.1038/s415...

This was by far the most challenging, but also rewarding project of my PhD (4 years from conceptualisation to publication). So glad to see this out!!

🧵(24/27)

Vulnerability of amphibians to global warming

doi.org

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

6. Microenvironmental complexity is vital for thermoregulation.

The availability of shade, vegetation, and water bodies is critical in buffering amphibians during heat waves. Immediate action is needed to manage these microhabitat features (esp. water sources!) ⚠️

🧵(23/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

5. Amphibians are vulnerable globally.

Both temperate and tropical amphibians are predicted to experience overheating events!

It is not safe to assume that tropical ectotherms are most vulnerable to warming, it is region- and species-specific ⚠️

🧵(22/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

4. We need to incorporate realistic temperature fluctuations in climate vulnerability assessments.

Using averaged temperatures does not reliably inform vulnerability risk because extreme heat events 🌡️ are the very phenomena triggering overheating events ⚠️

🧵(21/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

3. Plasticity is not able to buffer amphibians from extreme temperature events.

Although plasticity allows amphibians to adjust their thermal limits, it is not sufficient to compensate for projected temperature increases under global warming 😰

🧵(20/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

2. The impacts of global warming on amphibians will escalate abruptly.

Differences projected under 2 or 4°C of warming are enormous. We need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions before it is too late🥵

🧵(19/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

Ok, but what does this all mean? 🤔

1. Amphibians are particularly vulnerable to extreme temperature events.

Our estimates are in fact conservative (assume constant access to shade and wet skin). The impacts of warming will be much stronger than what we predict 😱

🧵(18/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

This is very different from our results with TSM 🤔

In fact, calculating TSM based on averaged temperature profiles hides critical tipping points for thermal stress (c,d)! ⚠️

Therefore, capturing daily temperature variation is key in assessing vulnerability risk!

🧵(17/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

We did not find uniform latitudinal patterns in the predicted number of overheating events ⚠️

In the S. Hemisphere, tropical species encounter disproportionally more overheating events, while in the N. Hemisphere, non-tropical species are more susceptible (a,b)

🧵(16/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

Interestingly, our models show that most amphibians will not overheat in aquatic microenvironments 💧. Only 11 species would be vulnerable under extreme climate warming scenarios.

This clearly demonstrates the importance of water bodies for amphibian thermoregulation⚠️

🧵(15/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

We predicted that 104 species (2%) are already exposed to overheating events, and 4°C of global warming would push 7.5% of species beyond their thermal limits in terrestrial conditions (a)

In arboreal conditions (b), numbers are slightly lower, but we find similar patterns

🧵(14/27)

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Patrice Pottier @patricepottier.bsky.social · Mar 6

However, it does not mean that amphibians do not experience overheating events (when body temperatures exceed CTmax)!⚠️

In fact, extreme temperatures occasionally push many amphibians beyond their thermal limits, particularly under extreme warming scenarios😱

🧵(13/27)

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