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Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl.bsky.social

1.3K followers 150 following 46 posts

Data Journalist at Focaldata. Hoping this platform takes off. (he/him) 🏳️‍🌈 [email protected]

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Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Nov 7

Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.

The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.

On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Aug 20

A&E: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpYl...

ZP: www.youtube.com/shorts/0MDzM...

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Aug 20

Full write-up below, including our latest Westminster voting intention figures.

www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Aug 20

NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election.

After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Aug 20

We've got some polling coming on the Green Party leadership race this week, with voting still open for party members.

We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Jul 30

You can read more on this ‒ including a message-testing case study on how the aid sector could restore support ‒ on our blog 👇

www.focaldata.com/blog/foundat...

Foundations at Risk: A new white paper from Focaldata

We are delighted to announce the release of our latest white paper, Foundations at Risk: Why support for philanthropic ventures like overseas aid and climate action is crumbling across the West – and ...

www.focaldata.com

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Jul 30

In-donor refugee costs and misinformation around where aid is spent are both damaging support for the aid sector.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Jul 30

Overseas aid is by far the UK public's lowest spending priority ‒ almost off-the-charts bad.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Jul 30

Voters across the four countries we studied basically don't trust their government to deliver anything. Overseas aid is the area where governments are least trusted to spend money well.

Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Jul 30

Net Zero has quietly become a culture-war issue, and is now almost as politically-divisive as multiculturalism.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Jul 30

We've just released a new white paper here at @focaldata.bsky.social, explaining why support for overseas aid has fallen among both voters and governments in the West, and why Net Zero risks going the same way.

🧵 Quick thread of some of the findings:

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Jul 18

Small samples so would be careful over-interpreting, but seeing evidence of the young gender split in our poll (Reform at 25% with male 16-17 year olds, 10% with female)

Oliver White @oliverdwwhite.bsky.social · Jul 18

Do you have breakdowns of 16-17 olds by gender?

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Jul 18

Tables: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Write-up: focaldata.com/blog/westmin...

Votes at 16 tables, 14-18 July 2025

docs.google.com

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Jul 18

Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldata.bsky.social sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · May 17

As for the UK, another 0 public points may well be on the cards, but some mild jury love may be enough to keep us off the bottom of the scoreboard.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · May 17

Stats-based forecast for tonight's Eurovision final.

The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion.

Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · May 2

Labour about to fall into *sixth* including independents...

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Apr 28

You can read our whole report here: www.focaldata.com/blog/trump-e...

'Trump effect' may cost Conservatives victory in Canadian election

The Liberal Party of Canada appears on course for a narrow victory in Monday’s federal election, holding a 3-point lead over the Conservatives.

www.focaldata.com

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Apr 28

However, while some of the fundamentals favour the Liberals, we think we should be cautious. The 'wisdom of the crowd' method, which successfully predicted Trump's swing state victories in November, points towards a polling error and a Conservative victory today.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Apr 28

Trump's actions have dramatically affected Canada's views of the United States. Almost half of Canadians now see the US as either 'unfriendly', or an enemy of Canada, a higher percentage than those who say the same about China.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Apr 28

With Canadians whose vote was influenced by Trump's recent actions, the Liberals dominate with 53% of the vote, and Mark Carney leads by 44 points on who would be best to handle the US-Canada relationship (the second most important issue) among those who see it as important.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Apr 28

🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election.

Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Apr 25

Our poll for Monday's Canadian election finds the Liberals with a narrow 3-point lead, with 40.5% of the vote to the Conservatives' 37.5%.

Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Apr 15

We made a few methodological changes since the last election following an internal review. You can read more about that here:
www.focaldata.com/blog/review-...

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Apr 15

Latest UK voting intention from us finds Labour, Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck...

www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...

Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · Mar 12

The survey also includes our first (public) Westminster voting intention result since the election:

🔴 Labour: 24% (-11 since 2024)
🔵 Conservative: 22% (-2)
🟣 Reform: 21% (+7)
🟠 Lib Dems: 14% (+2)
🟢 Green: 8% (+1)