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Paul Graf

@paulginva.bsky.social

4K followers 1.8K following 9.7K posts

Retired lawyer. Moderate. Dog lover, cat tolerator. Grandfather. Vietnam vet. History, international relations, national security, high-profile litigation, economics, and a little politics.

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · Jul 31

𝘏𝘶𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘸𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘢 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦. 𝘈 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘶𝘦𝘭 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩. –𝘍𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘬𝘭𝘪𝘯 𝘋. 𝘙𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘵

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 3h

Damn! Kash Patel caught them red-handed. I'm sure we can expect indictments any day now. 😐

Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes. 3h

White House releases names funding Antifa, protests and violence in America

We paid for our own protests with over $100 million laundered by Democrats

"We found a network of NGOs"

George Soros, the Open Society Network

Arabella Funding Network

The Tides FIShing Network

Neville Roy Singham and his network

- Johann Georg "Hansjörg" Wyss a billionaire donor in Switzerland

- Additional Foreign Cash

"It's also big left-wing funders, some of them who are not citizens of this country, Mr. Hans JorgJorg WyssSwitzerland, they're pouring money into this entire ecosystem."

"We have identified dozens of radical organizations, not just the decentralized Antifa organizations, but dozens of radical organizations that have received more than $100 million from the Riot Inc investors."

"I think the most shocking thing is that we have found that more than $100 million in US taxpayer funding has flowed into these funding networks"

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 3h

> I was broken into again for the TENTH TIME

Tenacity's appreciated, but, geez, leave after the second - or when your insurance rates tell you to. 😐

Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47.9h

"Yesterday morning, I was broken into again for the TENTH TIME," says a business owner in downtown Portland.

"We need help... If [the National Guard] is what we need to do to get our leaders paying attention to what's happening in Portland, then I think it's a good thing."

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 3h

Most of Transnistria is Russian speaking. It's going to be interesting to see what happens next.

+ Constantine+ @Teoyaomiquu. 17h

Transnistria, a fake proxy state created by russia between Moldova and Ukraine is about to run out of Natural Gas and collapse economically.

Payments intended to cover natural gas costs for Transnistria are being rejected by European banks. The funds were reportedly routed through alleged money-laundering companies in the UAE, representing a financial lifeline for the Russian-backed regime in the region

Cuciurgan power plant operates on billions of cubic meters of free Russian natural gas annually, creating a debt for Moldova that now exceeds $10 billion. By converting this free gas into electricity and selling it back to Moldova, the plant generates hundreds of millions of dollars each year, which serves as the primary source of hard currency for the Transnistrian regime.

Finally EU, Ukraine and Moldova are taking an action to get rid of this ugly abomination and set it's people free.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 3h

BIG development in Chicago. A federal judge finds that ICE was violating a 2022 settlement by conducting warrantless immigration arrests without individualized assessments as to whether targets were "likely to flee." He extends the settlement through February 2026 as a result.

ICE Violated Consent Decree With Warrantless Arrests, Federal Judge In Chicago Says

Attorneys argued that the recent arrest of an Albany Park family at Millennium Park violated a consent decree that limits the conditions under which federal agents can make warrantless arrests.

blockclubchicago.org

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 3h

Jesse Watters:

“You can’t be a dictator with dementia. Trump has the longest memory. Trump does not have dementia.”

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 4h

California consumers get surprise sticker shock ordering imports online

Since Trump ended a decades-old tariff policy known as de minimis, American consumers are getting hit with surprise import taxes on foreign goods.

www.latimes.com

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 4h

"Unexpected fees come with the end of de minimis, surprising consumers"

“Until this tariff thing started, I’ve never, ever had a bill on top of my purchase.” 🤣

Trump's elimination of a decades-old tariff exemption is hitting online shoppers with surprise bills that are sometimes thousands of dollars.

The policy change affects over 1.3 billion packages that previously entered the U.S. duty-free, resulting in unexpected import charges for consumers.

Buyers are facing surprise sticker shock fees on purchases of soccer jerseys, car parts and more.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 4h

Grocery prices are rising at the fastest pace since 2022 as Trump’s tariffs pile up. They won’t be coming down anytime soon, either.

The image is a screenshot of a news headline.
The headline states that grocery inflation is the highest it has been since 2022.
It attributes this increase to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.
The byline credits the article to Kelly Tyko and Ben Berkowitz.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 4h

I honestly didn't think he'd be able to carry this all the way across the first phase finish line. He must 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 want that Peace Prize.

Donald J. Trump @realDonald Trump

I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!

DONALD J. TRUMP

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

235 ReTruths 692 Likes 10/8/25, 6:51 PM

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 4h

Yet again I find myself liking what Rand Paul is saying. This is getting to be a habit.

Rand Paul @RandPaul. 4h

The U.S. should not be blowing up boats without even knowing who's on them.

There's no due process in that - no names, no evidence, no oversight.

I'll be co-sponsoring a War Powers resolution to make sure military action abroad has congressional approval. We can't drift into another regime-change war. @BloombergTV

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 4h

LOL! No you didn't.

Joni Ernst @SenJoniErnst

I've identified $2 trillion worth of non-essential government expenditures for @russvought to cut during the Schumer Shutdown.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 4h

Genuinely amazing that they’re trying to be racist but they’ve actually just written a passable Groucho Marx gag.

Sign saying "If i could find a country that didn't take immigrants in I'd move there"

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 4h

Mostly they're being used to guard buildings, clean up parks, & the like, just like they were in DC.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 4h

Troops can be used in support of law enforcement. They cannot make arrests; that has to be done by a sworn officer. Look at the Southern border. If they find someone, they turn them over to Border Patrol. They can conduct surveillance, drive busses, & protect officers.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 5h

The Wall Street Journal homepage.

Usually, the president has only a slow, marginal effect on the economy. Of course, this doesn't apply if the president pushes the "make things more expensive and start a trade and immigration war with the entire world" button.

Based on the image provided, the text is a headline from an article titled "The Unofficial Jobs Numbers Are In and It's Rough Out There" by Konrad Putzier. The article, dated October 8, 2025, discusses how Wall Street numbers and surveys are being used to fill the void during a "federal data blackout". The accompanying image shows a group of people at a job fair with a large screen that says "HIRE LOCAL!".

The image is a screenshot of an article from October 7, 2025, titled "America's Soybean Farmers Are Panicking Over the Loss of Chinese Buyers." The article reports on the financial distress faced by U.S. soybean farmers due to China's halt of purchases. China, historically the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, has not placed any new orders for months, leading to a potential "bloodbath" in prices and widespread financial strain for farmers.
China has stopped buying U.S. soybeans amid trade tensions, causing panic among American farmers.
China has shifted its sourcing to other countries like Brazil and Argentina.
The loss of the Chinese market, which historically bought a significant portion of the U.S. soybean crop, is causing prices to drop.
The U.S. administration is considering a bailout package for farmers to mitigate the financial fallout.

The image is a screenshot of a Wall Street Journal article titled "Hyundai Gets Cold Shoulder From Trump Despite Charm Offensive." The article discusses Hyundai's efforts to appease the Trump administration and its focus on the U.S. market.
The U.S. now accounts for more than half of Hyundai's operating profits.
Hyundai held a 2024 event in the Hollywood Hills to showcase a new three-row electric SUV, the IONIQ 9.
The article highlights Hyundai's efforts to deepen its U.S. presence, including a new production complex in Georgia.
The company's attempts to win favor with the Trump administration have been met with a "cold shoulder".

The text is a news article titled "Trump's Wind Energy Assault Stings Red States." The article discusses how the nation's top four wind-power states, which all lean Republican, are affected by the president's negative stance on wind energy.
The article is from the "Politics" and "Policy" sections.
The authors are John McCormick and Jennifer Hiller.
The publication date is October 8, 2025, at 5:00 am ET.
The article focuses on the impact of the president's criticism of wind energy on Republican-leaning states that are major wind-power producers.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 6h

Pluralistic: The real (economic) AI apocalypse is nigh (27 Sep 2025) – Pluralistic: Daily links from Cory Doctorow

pluralistic.net

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 6h

Cory Doctorow has an article that's a little ... concerning? Yes, that's a good word. I don't know whether this 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 happen, but it's concerning that it 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 happen. His basic facts are right. AI hype is the only thing holding the market up right now. When that goes away, who knows? It'll be brutal

A week ago, I turned that book into a speech, which I delivered as the annual Nordlander Memorial Lecture at Cornell, where I'm an AD White Professor-at-Large. This was my first-ever speech about AI and I wasn't sure how it would go over, but thankfully, it went great and sparked a lively Q&A. One of those questions came from a young man who said something like "So, you're saying a third of the stock market is tied up in seven AI companies that have no way to become profitable and that this is a bubble that's going to burst and take the whole economy with it?"

I said, "Yes, that's right."

He said, "OK, but what can we do about that?"

So I re-iterated the book's thesis: that the AI bubble is driven by monopolists who've conquered their markets and have no more growth potential, who are desperate to convince investors that they can continue to grow by moving into some other sector, e.g. "pivot to video," crypto, blockchain, NFTS, AI, and now "super-intelligence." Further: the topline growth that AI companies are selling comes from replacing most workers with AI, and re-tasking the surviving workers as AI babysitters ("humans in the loop"), which won't work. Finally: AI cannot do your job, but an AI salesman can 100% convince your boss to fire you and replace you with an AI that can't do your job, and when the bubble bursts, the money-hemorrhaging "foundation models" will be shut off and we'll lose the AI that can't do your job, and you will be long gone, retrained or retired or "discouraged" and out of the labor market, and no one will do your job. AI is the asbestos we are shoveling into the walls of our society and our descendants will be digging it out for generations.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 6h

This brings back a memory of when I interviewed for a summer clerkship with my law firm in 1976. They had a custom of not making an offer until you had interviewed with every single partner—all 29 of them. It was grueling. They changed it two years later so applicants only had to talk to six people.

Man says Goldman Sachs put him through a gauntlet of 39 one-on-one interviews—and the decisive conversation was less than a minute | Fortune

Goldman Sachs’ acceptance rate for internships is less than 1%.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 6h

I'm not sure that this was a very good ad. I mean, what knuckle-dragging, mouth-breathing, intellectually challenged, misogynistic, racist asshat would look at this and say to himself "Wow if I joined ICE, I could look like Kristi Noem"?

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 6h

I read somewhere today that ICE is having trouble meeting its recruiting targets. Apparently, there is only a finite number of thugs who don’t already have jobs. Who knew?

This is an advertisement from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for a recruitment campaign. The ad features a woman in a police-style uniform with the text "DEFEND THE HOMELAND" and "JOIN ICE TODAY."
The ad is a recruitment campaign for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The campaign's slogan is "Defend the Homeland."
The ad encourages people to join ICE.
The ad is posted on a social media platform and links to the official ICE website.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 8h

Overall, this poll gives me hope. Even 51% of Republicans say he shouldn't be sending National Guard troops to states besides their own.

This image is a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on October 3-7, 2025, regarding the U.S. military's role on the homefront. The poll surveyed 1,154 U.S. adults on three specific questions.
Deployment of troops: A majority of adults (58%) believe the president should only deploy troops to areas with external threats. This view is more popular with Democrats (72%) than Republicans (51%).
Deploying troops in a state: The poll shows a significant partisan divide on whether the president should be able to send troops into a state if the governor objects. 70% of Republicans agree with this, while 79% of Democrats disagree.
Political neutrality: A large majority of all adults (83%) believe the U.S. military should remain politically neutral. This is a widely held view across all political affiliations, with 93% of Democrats and 78% of Republicans agreeing.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 8h

that would make their grocery bills even more expensive. Since consumer spending drives 70% of our economy, I think this credit squeeze could force the Fed's hand toward more aggressive cuts regardless of inflation risks, creating exactly the kind of policy whipsaw that hurts regular families most.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 8h

entirely by interest rates that make even basic purchases unaffordable on credit.

I'm particularly concerned about the timing as the Fed considers more rate cuts. This data suggests families desperately need relief from borrowing costs, but cutting rates too aggressively risks reigniting inflation

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 8h

I see this credit pullback as households hitting a wall where borrowing becomes financially impossible rather than just unattractive. The divergence between necessary debt still growing and discretionary credit collapsing tells me people aren't choosing to be conservative, they're being priced out

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

US consumer borrowing is slowing:

US consumer credit rose by just +$363 million in August, the slowest pace in 6 months and far below expectations of a +$14.0 billion increase.

The modest gain follows a sharp +$18.1 billion rise in July.

The slowdown was driven by a -$6.0 billion drop in revolving credit, which includes credit cards, the second-largest decline in 4.5 years.

Non-revolving credit, which includes auto and student loans, rose +$6.3 billion.

Meanwhile, the average interest rate on credit cards rose to 22.8%, the highest this year and near the highest on record.

Americans are pulling back on spending.

Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 8h

That's at the very low end of what will undoubtedly be needed. I've seen estimates as high as $50 billion.