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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Jul 6

Why not the Kehoe-Prescott?

Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Jul 1

Have you written a great macro paper?
Submit to the CJE.
New macro crowd in the editorial board with Joe Steinberg at the helm.
#macro #econbluesky

Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Jun 1

Thanks for the nice words, John!

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · May 31

Thank you @chrisneill.bsky.social!!! We are very happy with the recognition!

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · May 11

If, as the say, "Wars are God's way of teaching Americans geography," it must be the case that "Tariffs are God's way of teaching Americans Economics."

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Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Apr 27

"I thought I was voting for pro-business policies and small, targeted, and incremental tariffs, that would encourage..." How could anyone watch Trump, listen to what he says, and think anything constructive would ensue on the economic policy front?

Sharon @sharonk.bsky.social · Apr 27

small and medium enterprise gotterdammerung

I enthusiastically supported Trump's victory in the November election.

I thought I was voting for pro-business policies and small, targeted, and incremental tariffs that would encourage the production of strategic industries to return to the Americas.

I.e., what we got in the first Administration.

I did not vote for a neutron bomb to wipe out supply chains and small businesses 100 days in.

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Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Apr 25

We're in the midst of an election, so lots of not-entirely-fleshed-out promises being made. I think we have to wait to see the first budget from the incoming government.

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Apr 24

The Toronto Life folks (Ali Amad, in this case) did a great job summarizing how things have been.
torontolife.com/city/it-felt...

"It felt like vertigo": The White House used this economist's research to justify tariffs. They couldn't have got it more wrong - Toronto Life

McMaster professor Pau Pujolas shares the story behind a Trump administration reading-comprehension fail

torontolife.com

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Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas

Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Apr 16

Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...

IntuitionDeficitWar.pdf

drive.google.com

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Apr 16

Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...

IntuitionDeficitWar.pdf

drive.google.com

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Apr 11

Yes, the stock market behaves efficiently. Erratic, volatile are not antonyms of efficient.
Williamson is spot on, as usual.

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Apr 10

1/So, I take "efficient market hypothesis" to be the proposition that there is some model of rational behavior consistent with asset market behavior. What's puzzling? You load the world up with a highly unusual amount of uncertainty, and then force it to respond to a quickly-evolving series...

Binyamin Appelbaum @bcappelbaum.bsky.social · Apr 10

I would really enjoy hearing a proponent of the efficient market hypothesis explain the last two days of stock market activity.

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Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas

Stephen Williamson @1954swilliamson.bsky.social · Apr 10

1/So, I take "efficient market hypothesis" to be the proposition that there is some model of rational behavior consistent with asset market behavior. What's puzzling? You load the world up with a highly unusual amount of uncertainty, and then force it to respond to a quickly-evolving series...

Binyamin Appelbaum @bcappelbaum.bsky.social · Apr 10

I would really enjoy hearing a proponent of the efficient market hypothesis explain the last two days of stock market activity.

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Apr 9

I am happy the Globe and Mail published this piece.

The Globe and Mail @theglobeandmail.com · Apr 9

The Canadian researcher cited by the White House is not thrilled

Trump’s trade chief cited a McMaster University study. Its author says the policy misuse is ‘saddening’

www.theglobeandmail.com

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Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas

Tammy Schirle 🇨🇦 @tammyschirle.bsky.social · Apr 9

Don't blame @paupujolas.bsky.social

The Globe and Mail @theglobeandmail.com · Apr 9

The Canadian researcher cited by the White House is not thrilled

Trump’s trade chief cited a McMaster University study. Its author says the policy misuse is ‘saddening’

www.theglobeandmail.com

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Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas

Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦 @tkehoe.bsky.social · Apr 8

Trump Administration has cited this paper by Pujolas & Rossbach as justifying recent Trump tariffs. It does not. Nor does it justify 2018 Trump tariffs on China:

"We find that both the United States and China experienced welfare losses from their recent trade war."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Trade Wars with Trade Deficits

<div> Trade imbalances significantly alter the welfare implications of tariffs. Using an illustrative <span>model, we show that trade deficits enhance a c

papers.ssrn.com

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Apr 7

Worried about Smoot-Hawley repeating?
You should be *even more* worried now.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

THE COST OF TRADE DISRUPTIONS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT

We study trade disruptions at different stages of development in a two-country, three-sector model of Spain and United Kingdom from 1850 to 2000. The impact of trade disruptions depends on trade open....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas

Antonia Díaz @antoniadiazrod.bsky.social · Apr 7

Advertencia importante de @paupujolas.bsky.social : los países pequeños siempre pierden en guerras comerciales. Razón de más para mantener filas prietas en la UE.

Nada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · Apr 7

El juego del arancel: una historieta con cinco alarmas nadaesgratis.es/admin/el-jue... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía

El juego del arancel: una historieta con cinco alarmas

El pasado fin de semana, el Financial Times publicó un artículo sobre los trabajos académicos citados en el informe que la administración Trump utilizó para justificar su agresiva política arancelaria...

nadaesgratis.es

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Apr 3

De hecho, nuestros resultados indican que, de mantenerse los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales existentes, la política comercial óptima para Estados Unidos consiste en empezar un montón de guerras comerciales con varios países. 3/3

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Apr 3

Los Estados Unidos podría iniciar una guerra comercial con China y, si se establecieran los aranceles correctos, ganarla. 2/3

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Apr 3

Ya lo dijimos en este artículo
nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra...

De cara al futuro, los responsables de la formulación de políticas comerciales, deben comprender que los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales cambian la manera de pensar en guerras comerciales... 1/3

Guerras y Déficits en Comercio Internacional

Por Pau S. Pujolas y Jack Rossbach El 2 de marzo de 2018, el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald J. Trump, tuiteó: "Cuando un país (EE. UU.) está perdiendo muchos miles de millones de dólares en c...

nadaesgratis.es

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Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas

Mark Carney @mark-carney.bsky.social · Mar 22

Elbows up, Canada.

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Mar 17

A great idea from my friend David Feeny and his wife Darrell Tomkins.
Help a first-generation student by donating!
dailynews.mcmaster.ca/articles/why...

Why McMaster Donors Give: Darrell Tomkins and David Feeny

When David Feeny and Darrell Tomkins met at McMaster in 1976, they never imagined that their shared love for academia would lead to not only . . .

dailynews.mcmaster.ca

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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · Mar 15

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Because "retaliating" is a misleasing word.

Some countries aren't retaliating against Trump's tariffs. Should Canada 'turn the other cheek'? | CBC News

Faced with tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, some countries have decided, so far, to respond by turning the other cheek, and not retaliate with their own duties.

www.cbc.ca

Reposted by Pau S. Pujolas

Mark Cuban @mcuban.bsky.social · Mar 10

One of my companies informed me they cancelled a $2m conference in Florida. Why ?

They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.

That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.

The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff

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