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Reposted

Ben Johnson @ersatzben.com · Jul 21

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

The Alan Turing Institute has visibly struggled, and is now at a critical juncture. The Secretary of State has intervened. What happens next?

A new report for @britishprogress.bsky.social by me and @jujulemons.bsky.social sets out a plan: 🧵

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

Full analysis by me and @davidlawrenceuk.bsky.social here:
britishprogress.org/reports/isa-...

ISA & pension reform: Why forced investment is not real investment

Compelling British households to invest in British assets risks undermining their pensions without improving the economy. Creating real investment opportunities requires addressing the barriers curren...

britishprogress.org

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

Britain has world-class universities, strong labour markets, leading industrial clusters, and a sophisticated financial market. We need to focus on structural constraints that stop these advantages turning into attractive investments.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

The most important is to fix the sources of the UK’s cost disadvantages relative to other countries (planning, energy, infrastructure), but we must also improve financial markets by removing frictions - not forcing artificial allocations.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

Trying to revive financial flows without addressing fundamental barriers to economic activity is like treating the symptoms and ignoring the disease. To achieve both, we propose two necessary conditions:

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

Overall, these effects are second-order. The fundamental issues of high input costs and availability: energy, industrial locations, and limited housing availability in key clusters create systematic disadvantages that no amount of capital can overcome.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

Plus, once implemented, beneficiary interest groups will fight future reversal, locking in costly mistakes. If directing UK savings to underperforming assets ends up hurting returns, we'll be paying for it long after the policy fails.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

But financial markets are not perfect. MiFID II reduced incentives for research coverage of smaller companies. Britain's 0.5% stamp duty is higher than most major markets. Pension fragmentation limits sophisticated investment.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

The difference? Fintech operates where Britain has advantages: a strong sectoral cluster, low physical footprint, deep talent pools. Manufacturing firms or data centres face high energy costs and planning complexity.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

We can see this in the divide between different types of companies: UK fintech (Revolut, Monzo) readily access capital.

Manufacturing firms or those dependent on access to infrastructure struggle. Same financial system, very different outcomes.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

If companies are struggling to find attractive opportunities, and persuading investors to part with their funds, simply channeling more capital towards them won't solve anything. That misdiagnoses the problem.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

Forcing savers to invest in British companies addresses a symptom, but misses the underlying cause.

It also ignores what companies are telling us. UK manufacturers cite 'uncertainty of demand' and 'inadequate returns' as their main investment barriers, not the 'cost of finance'.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Jun 19

Will throwing more money at British companies actually help our economy?

Politicians keep threatening to direct British savings & pensions to UK equities. But this won’t fix the underlying reasons for Britain’s low investment & productivity – and could deliver worse returns. 🧵

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Reposted

Ben Johnson @ersatzben.com · May 1

How does R&D contribute to economic growth? A response to David Edgerton from me & @pedroserodio.com

johnsonb.substack.com/p/r-and-d-do...

R&D does drive growth – just not in the way you think

A response to David Edgerton.

johnsonb.substack.com

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Reposted

Centre for British Progress @britishprogress.org · Apr 14

The Progress Post: our new substack

We'll look beyond policy to the cultural currents behind British progress, and the ideas, values, & visions that we're building towards.

Today: our April newsletter, upcoming events, & bookshelf with pieces from @droojb.bsky.social & Jack Wiseman

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Reposted

James O'Malley @jamesomalley.co.uk · Apr 7

New episode of THE ABUNDANCE AGENDA!

Why we love Luton Airport, and a terrible plan for changing the London Mayoralty.

Plus we speak to @davidlawrenceuk.bsky.social and @jujulemons.bsky.social about the launch of @britishprogress.bsky.social !

Listen:

www.abundancepod.com/p/why-we-lov...

Why we love Luton Airport, and a terrible plan for changing the London Mayoralty

Plus the exciting launch of the Centre for British Progress

www.abundancepod.com

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Apr 3

Hoping that the more skilled half of the team can raise me up to their level.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Apr 3

A big thank you to @jujulemons.bsky.social and
@davidlawrenceuk.bsky.social for the invitation - I am thrilled to be working with the very talented team of
@freddieposer.com, @ersatzben.bsky.social, @maxxturing.bsky.social , @droojb.bsky.social, and Tom Blake, as well as @lyan82.bsky.social.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Apr 3

Now that all the top people have made their announcements, we shouldn't overlook the bottom half of the productivity distribution: I am extremely pleased to be joining
@britishprogress.bsky.social as Chief Economist!

bsky.app/profile/brit...

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Reposted

Centre for British Progress @britishprogress.org · Apr 3

💫 We’re launching the Centre for British Progress

Our founding essay: Rediscovering British Progress is a case for growth that drives shared progress, rooted in Britain's values and industrial heritage.

It all starts with a postcard from 1870 👇

britishprogress.org/articles/red...

Cover of the essay Rediscovering British Progress available at https://britishprogress.org/articles/rediscovering-british-progress

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Mar 27

The OBR’s role in ensuring fiscal accountability is too important to risk in disputes over its political nature - 2022 proved that.

But it needs tools to help it respond to the needs of governments who want to focus on long-term growth.

Full piece here:
ukdayone.org/briefings/ho...

How Can We Strengthen the OBR’s Forecasting? - UK Day One

ukdayone.org

pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Mar 27

When HMG policy is shaped by OBR forecasts, and Govt is pushing on reforms that the OBR toolkit wasn’t built for (like reg. reform), it creates a pressure to reshape the OBR's role and question whether it has become a political institution.

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Mar 27

The result is a difficult feedback loop that my new piece with macroeconomist Rohan Shah for
@ukdayone.bsky.social examines:

ukdayone.org/briefings/ho...

How Can We Strengthen the OBR’s Forecasting? - UK Day One

ukdayone.org

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Mar 27

This elevates the role of OBR "judgement" for key forecast inputs (eg, productivity trends).

Some judgement is unavoidable, but relying on judgement calls for binding forecasts invites intense scrutiny and questions about the basis for those constraints.

bsky.app/profile/gemm...

Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow.bsky.social · Mar 26

OBR forecast revisions knocked a hole in Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans. She responded by announcing measures to restore *exactly* the same margin against her rules as she had in October - still very small given average size of forecast revisions

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pedroserodio.com @pedroserodio.com · Mar 27

The approach underlying all OBR forecasting is now very far from the state of the art in macroeconomics.

Empirical evidence produced at the research frontier becomes less useful for forecasts - forcing the OBR to rely more on other sources, like Government produced figures.

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