@coreyhogan.ca Hey Corey, I made a network diagram that shows the support of different demographics with the BCNDP. Should I make one for the federal Liberals? I think it would help with messaging and strategy, or at least providing context, for the Confed campaign.

I can zoom in to see the demographics. Other than looking nice, this has helped me understand support levels better. For example, management, counterintuitively, were NDP supporters in another model. Here, I see they connect to many supportive demographics like having master's degrees.

This is a cloud of demographics and their relationships to eachother and the two main BC parties. Mostly for the purpose of beauty. Orange correlate with the NDP and blue correlate with Cons. Grey correlate with neither, and are essentially the battleground of policy and marketing. #BCNDP #CDNpoli

I got some pushback in Reddit about how unreadable the last chart was, so this is hopefully a simplified version. Orange demographics correlate with #BCNDP. Blue demographics correlate with #BCConservatives. Grey demographics correlate with no party. Size indicates median proportion. #BCpoli

This network diagram shows demographic groups that correlate with #BCNDP support and #BCconservative support. The grey ones don't have a high correlation to either, so they are for the picking for either party. Meanwhile they have to hold on to their bases. #CDNpoli #BCpoli

This made a lightbulb go off. "Womanness" has a very low positive correlation with #BCNDP support. The reason polls say women support them is important parts of their lives make them supportive. They're in jobs that support them. Men work jobs that overwhelmingly dislike the NDP. #CDNpoli #BCpoli

While atheism has no effect on #BCNDP support, Christianity's effect is quite negative. This is still not very determinant of political support. #CDNpoli #BCPoli

Predictably, higher income groups supported the #BCNDP less than lower income groups. The R^2 of this is very low, meaning that income is a lot less determinant of support than other things, especially what industry people work in. #NDP #Canpoli

Youth support for #BCNDP is quite high, while their highest support is middle-aged adults. the support drops off with seniors. with an R^2 of 0.3, age isn't that big of a predictor, especially compared to career industry. #BCpoli #NDP

These new models are less predictive but are more accurate at explaining support levels of census groups. Here we can see levels of education's effect on #BCNDP support. Highschool certificates and tradespeople generally don't support them as much as other levels. #canpoli #BCpoli

I remade my model to be more explanatory. The industry someone works in is the best predictor of their support for the #BCNDP. this chart shows their support of them by percentage in riding in 2024 (intercept of 0.6594). #BCpoli #canpoli