Yeah, that’s fair on the FTC. Was more cartooning, but the auto cycle starting to turn does make for an interesting setup against the backdrop of…everything else in the world
May 6, 2025 at 1:28 AM
Yeah, that’s fair on the FTC. Was more cartooning, but the auto cycle starting to turn does make for an interesting setup against the backdrop of…everything else in the world
I have been very full on the fun-nançe side, not the other stuff quite yet
May 6, 2025 at 1:19 AM
I have been very full on the fun-nançe side, not the other stuff quite yet
Come on, @transverseslice.bsky.social you had to have intentionally tried not to read any of my ‘love for one small bank in particular’ tweets…
January 16, 2025 at 1:01 AM
Come on, @transverseslice.bsky.social you had to have intentionally tried not to read any of my ‘love for one small bank in particular’ tweets…
I’m getting follows from the same bots. It’s brutal.
January 7, 2025 at 3:09 AM
I’m getting follows from the same bots. It’s brutal.
But don’t sleep on how much public equity value is coming from strategics buying PE portcos. NFP ($13B), McGriff ($8B), and Assured ($14B) sold to strategics (~$35B of EV going to public markets combined). Just Q4. That’s the other big channel.
January 7, 2025 at 2:50 AM
But don’t sleep on how much public equity value is coming from strategics buying PE portcos. NFP ($13B), McGriff ($8B), and Assured ($14B) sold to strategics (~$35B of EV going to public markets combined). Just Q4. That’s the other big channel.
Yes to bigger cos after longer holds. Just look at insurance broking in Q4: Alliant sold a sizable stake at a $25B EV. Ardonagh at $14B. Howden rumored not far behind. Hub, Acrisure, etc. have previously. All will be public, but get there at $20B+ TEV. That’s a ton of new publicly traded value.
January 7, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Yes to bigger cos after longer holds. Just look at insurance broking in Q4: Alliant sold a sizable stake at a $25B EV. Ardonagh at $14B. Howden rumored not far behind. Hub, Acrisure, etc. have previously. All will be public, but get there at $20B+ TEV. That’s a ton of new publicly traded value.
I feel better about the second response than the first here, but again, no real way to prove this that comes to mind
January 7, 2025 at 2:26 AM
I feel better about the second response than the first here, but again, no real way to prove this that comes to mind
That scale M&A thing may sound trite, but reality is that a sector “discovered” by PE sees tons of consolidation and may produce fewer public cos. So it may be more: PE contributes more market cap to the public markets than it takes out, but in fewer companies and often as M&A targets
January 7, 2025 at 2:25 AM
That scale M&A thing may sound trite, but reality is that a sector “discovered” by PE sees tons of consolidation and may produce fewer public cos. So it may be more: PE contributes more market cap to the public markets than it takes out, but in fewer companies and often as M&A targets
I have absolutely no satisfactory way to prove this, but yes, at some point. The big swing as to when will be scale M&A. Take insurance brokerage where Aon, Marsh, and Gallagher have recently taken out $7-15B PE portcos that could have gone public (well NFP definitely and McGriff maybe/AP no chance)
January 7, 2025 at 2:23 AM
I have absolutely no satisfactory way to prove this, but yes, at some point. The big swing as to when will be scale M&A. Take insurance brokerage where Aon, Marsh, and Gallagher have recently taken out $7-15B PE portcos that could have gone public (well NFP definitely and McGriff maybe/AP no chance)
Short answer is a few, although you are mostly right that most are sour grapes and mad about marks (credit to Cliff Asness for giving the fair and good faith anti-PE view). One caveat is the annuity carrier movie could end badly, but that should be more whimper than bang, especially industry-wide.
December 31, 2024 at 4:17 AM
Short answer is a few, although you are mostly right that most are sour grapes and mad about marks (credit to Cliff Asness for giving the fair and good faith anti-PE view). One caveat is the annuity carrier movie could end badly, but that should be more whimper than bang, especially industry-wide.
@transverseslice.bsky.social whenever FinTwit moves over to Bluesky (gotta build those network effects)
a cartoon drawing of three purple elephants on top of a brick tower
ALT: a cartoon drawing of three purple elephants on top of a brick tower
media.tenor.com
December 31, 2024 at 3:29 AM
@transverseslice.bsky.social whenever FinTwit moves over to Bluesky (gotta build those network effects)