William Bowe
@pollbludger.bsky.social
Publisher of the Australian elections and polling website pollbludger.net
After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
Hinchinbrook by-election live - The Poll Bludger
Live results and commentary from the Queensland state by-election for Hinchinbrook.
www.pollbludger.net
November 29, 2025 at 10:52 AM
After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
November 29, 2025 at 9:43 AM
The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
November 29, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...
The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.
November 29, 2025 at 9:00 AM
The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.
Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor. ALP 36% (steady), L-NP 24% (steady), GRN 13% (up two) and ON 15% (steady). www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/23/n...
Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor (open thread) - The Poll Bludger
Labor's two-party lead back out to its equal widest since the election, though Sussan Ley remains favoured to lead the Liberal Party.
www.pollbludger.net
November 23, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor. ALP 36% (steady), L-NP 24% (steady), GRN 13% (up two) and ON 15% (steady). www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/23/n...
I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
September 13, 2025 at 9:41 AM
I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
September 13, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...
Reposted by William Bowe
Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.
Tasmanian Labor just bought itself an extra year in opposition
www.crikey.com.au
July 21, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.
Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes
First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...
July 19, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes
First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...
July 19, 2025 at 8:47 AM
First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...
You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...
July 17, 2025 at 9:05 AM
You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...
Reposted by William Bowe
For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes
Podcast #153: Tasmania’s election landscape
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the latest Tasmanian state polls and go through Tasmania’s five electorates one by one, discussing the race and possible winners…
www.tallyroom.com.au
July 15, 2025 at 4:15 AM
For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes
YouGov: Labor 34, Liberal 31, Greens 13, independents 18 in Tasmania. Plus the new Poll Bludger election guide. www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/t...
Tasmanian election: YouGov poll and election guide - The Poll Bludger
A new poll finds Labor well placed to emerge from the Tasmanian state election as largest party, but well short of a majority.
www.pollbludger.net
June 30, 2025 at 10:36 AM
YouGov: Labor 34, Liberal 31, Greens 13, independents 18 in Tasmania. Plus the new Poll Bludger election guide. www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/t...
A YouGov South Australian state poll in @thetiser.bsky.social has Labor leading 67-33 www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/21/y...
YouGov: 67-33 to Labor in South Australia - The Poll Bludger
A rare South Australian state poll finds Labor on course for one of the biggest landslides in Australian electoral history.
www.pollbludger.net
June 20, 2025 at 6:10 PM
A YouGov South Australian state poll in @thetiser.bsky.social has Labor leading 67-33 www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/21/y...
The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.
Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025
Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election
www.pollbludger.net
May 20, 2025 at 6:58 AM
The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.
Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025
Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election
www.pollbludger.net
May 20, 2025 at 6:49 AM
Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
Update on the Calwell preference distribution: www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/19/l...
Late counting: week three - The Poll Bludger
Resolutions imminent for the remaining outstanding lower house seats, which likely just means Bradfield and Calwell.
www.pollbludger.net
May 20, 2025 at 4:35 AM
Update on the Calwell preference distribution: www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/19/l...
Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield by 19. A maximum 280 declaration pre-polls to come. pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025
Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election
pollbludger.net
May 19, 2025 at 4:37 AM
Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield by 19. A maximum 280 declaration pre-polls to come. pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
They're drowning in it
Cold water for the Australian- more please!
May 19, 2025 at 3:58 AM
They're drowning in it
It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going
I feel bad about asking because you provide such a great service, which I only occassionally donate to, but is there a reason results have stopped updating on your page since Friday? It's so much easier to find certain information than on the AEC site.
May 19, 2025 at 3:49 AM
It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going
2500 words on Chinese Australians losing faith with the Liberals, and the only mention of the party whose leader said Australia was in danger of being swamped by them, to whom the Libs directed preferences, is an utterly irrelevant shot at the teals theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can...
theaustralian.com.au
May 19, 2025 at 12:04 AM
2500 words on Chinese Australians losing faith with the Liberals, and the only mention of the party whose leader said Australia was in danger of being swamped by them, to whom the Libs directed preferences, is an utterly irrelevant shot at the teals theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can...
Modelling the Senate outcome. A close race in WA gives One Nation a chance of a third seat, and some cold water for The Australian's enthusiasm about Jacqui Lambie losing her seat www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/s...
Senate counting: week three - The Poll Bludger
A second attempt to model the Senate outcome, with some finer points concerning the composition of the cross-bench chiefly at issue.
www.pollbludger.net
May 18, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Modelling the Senate outcome. A close race in WA gives One Nation a chance of a third seat, and some cold water for The Australian's enthusiasm about Jacqui Lambie losing her seat www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/s...
Reposted by William Bowe
Australians take a lot of pride in their preferential voting system. But does it actually suck?
Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
May 16, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Australians take a lot of pride in their preferential voting system. But does it actually suck?
Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
Bradfield back in play after a batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaks 298-179 to Nicolette Boele, cutting her deficit from 178 to 59. Based on how late counting has been counting, my probability estimate is probably an under-estimate. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...
The Poll Bludger: Federal Election 2025
Live election results and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election
www.pollbludger.net
May 13, 2025 at 5:37 AM
Bradfield back in play after a batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaks 298-179 to Nicolette Boele, cutting her deficit from 178 to 59. Based on how late counting has been counting, my probability estimate is probably an under-estimate. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...