potatolicious
@potatolicious.bsky.social
I make ML stuff at . Opinions my own.
To overuse the Jobs-ism of the computer being a bicycle for the mind: what we've got is a very nice bicycle. What the VCs are funding is the self-driving car.
January 6, 2026 at 2:52 PM
To overuse the Jobs-ism of the computer being a bicycle for the mind: what we've got is a very nice bicycle. What the VCs are funding is the self-driving car.
This feels like a fundamental tension with all LLM products. The hype is around autonomy and lack of human involvement, but the reality ain't really there (nor is it obvious this *should* be the case).
January 6, 2026 at 2:52 PM
This feels like a fundamental tension with all LLM products. The hype is around autonomy and lack of human involvement, but the reality ain't really there (nor is it obvious this *should* be the case).
Yeah I'm sympathetic to this point: at some point the manufacturers will try to climb the value chain, probably successfully.
See: SK manufacturers now competing as distinct consumer brands. See also: the entire CN car industry and how it's about to eat Ford/GM for lunch.
See: SK manufacturers now competing as distinct consumer brands. See also: the entire CN car industry and how it's about to eat Ford/GM for lunch.
January 5, 2026 at 9:45 PM
Yeah I'm sympathetic to this point: at some point the manufacturers will try to climb the value chain, probably successfully.
See: SK manufacturers now competing as distinct consumer brands. See also: the entire CN car industry and how it's about to eat Ford/GM for lunch.
See: SK manufacturers now competing as distinct consumer brands. See also: the entire CN car industry and how it's about to eat Ford/GM for lunch.
My bit of self-doubt there is that the list of defense/geopolitically critical mfg industries seems long enough that it's probably not a tiny part of your overall economy?
January 5, 2026 at 9:34 PM
My bit of self-doubt there is that the list of defense/geopolitically critical mfg industries seems long enough that it's probably not a tiny part of your overall economy?
Yeah agree. I think my general stance is "developed economies need to subsidize some lower-value industries that are defense/geopolitically critical, but otherwise should pursue high-value industries that mostly aren't going to be manufacturing".
January 5, 2026 at 9:34 PM
Yeah agree. I think my general stance is "developed economies need to subsidize some lower-value industries that are defense/geopolitically critical, but otherwise should pursue high-value industries that mostly aren't going to be manufacturing".
I think the argument though is that the 25% margin design firms have a load-bearing dependency on the other, and that it's geopolitically unstable to not have a stake in the other.
Like, if TSMC gets blown up/captured that's kind of a big deal to the design firms.
Like, if TSMC gets blown up/captured that's kind of a big deal to the design firms.
January 5, 2026 at 9:23 PM
I think the argument though is that the 25% margin design firms have a load-bearing dependency on the other, and that it's geopolitically unstable to not have a stake in the other.
Like, if TSMC gets blown up/captured that's kind of a big deal to the design firms.
Like, if TSMC gets blown up/captured that's kind of a big deal to the design firms.
Ah true, I am on the $100 plan... which has felt quite worth it (did not expect to say that about paying SaaS at $100/mo).
January 5, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Ah true, I am on the $100 plan... which has felt quite worth it (did not expect to say that about paying SaaS at $100/mo).
Honestly I'm using Opus pretty much exclusively and still haven't hit them yet, but my dev model is still baby sitting a single instance at a time.
If you're letting multiple instances go at once on Opus I imagine that'd be quite different.
If you're letting multiple instances go at once on Opus I imagine that'd be quite different.
January 5, 2026 at 6:25 PM
Honestly I'm using Opus pretty much exclusively and still haven't hit them yet, but my dev model is still baby sitting a single instance at a time.
If you're letting multiple instances go at once on Opus I imagine that'd be quite different.
If you're letting multiple instances go at once on Opus I imagine that'd be quite different.
I check it sometimes. It’s a cross of LinkedIn (low effort Personal Brand posting) and FB (obvious engagement bait posts). Half of my feed is just movie clips “haha remember this?!” posts.
95% of it is completely value-less.
95% of it is completely value-less.
January 5, 2026 at 5:24 AM
I check it sometimes. It’s a cross of LinkedIn (low effort Personal Brand posting) and FB (obvious engagement bait posts). Half of my feed is just movie clips “haha remember this?!” posts.
95% of it is completely value-less.
95% of it is completely value-less.
Honestly *this* feels like the most compelling silver lining of LLMs. We unleashed the slop demon machine and have to suffer the consequences as a society, but on the other hand there’s a way here to wrest control of software back to the individual.
January 4, 2026 at 9:06 PM
Honestly *this* feels like the most compelling silver lining of LLMs. We unleashed the slop demon machine and have to suffer the consequences as a society, but on the other hand there’s a way here to wrest control of software back to the individual.
I know some folks in the industry. In short: very real. Absolute crisis level vs. a few years ago.
January 4, 2026 at 8:52 PM
I know some folks in the industry. In short: very real. Absolute crisis level vs. a few years ago.
I actually like that comparison more and will yoink it. Both in the sophistication of what can be created but also that it’s still a thing with a substantial learning curve.
January 4, 2026 at 8:44 PM
I actually like that comparison more and will yoink it. Both in the sophistication of what can be created but also that it’s still a thing with a substantial learning curve.
I like the comparison of this stuff with VisiCalc. You end up replacing a lot of not-super-complicated domain software with “our analyst whipped this up”.
January 4, 2026 at 8:37 PM
I like the comparison of this stuff with VisiCalc. You end up replacing a lot of not-super-complicated domain software with “our analyst whipped this up”.
+1. If anything it feels like SaaS will fare poorly. Clients can replicate the needed thing with far less work, *and* it’s far cheaper to field competitors.
January 4, 2026 at 8:37 PM
+1. If anything it feels like SaaS will fare poorly. Clients can replicate the needed thing with far less work, *and* it’s far cheaper to field competitors.
Timberborn! Victoria 3 has also sucked away a ton of my life.
January 4, 2026 at 4:11 PM
Timberborn! Victoria 3 has also sucked away a ton of my life.
Also as someone who may easily be a target of one of these pogroms, I am far less concerned about moral agency than I am about how to keep as many people out of the mob as possible.
Whether someone is a garden-variety bigot or an eliminationist matters for my health.
Whether someone is a garden-variety bigot or an eliminationist matters for my health.
January 2, 2026 at 8:30 PM
Also as someone who may easily be a target of one of these pogroms, I am far less concerned about moral agency than I am about how to keep as many people out of the mob as possible.
Whether someone is a garden-variety bigot or an eliminationist matters for my health.
Whether someone is a garden-variety bigot or an eliminationist matters for my health.
Yeah but there still feels like a consequential difference between "guy you avoid at house party" and "guy calling for pogroms".
I feel like pushing the former group into the latter is very, very bad.
I feel like pushing the former group into the latter is very, very bad.
January 2, 2026 at 7:27 PM
Yeah but there still feels like a consequential difference between "guy you avoid at house party" and "guy calling for pogroms".
I feel like pushing the former group into the latter is very, very bad.
I feel like pushing the former group into the latter is very, very bad.
I very much suspect that gpt-4o's sycophancy is a case of blindly following engagement numbers. A *lot* of people want a sycophantic chatbot.
January 2, 2026 at 7:22 PM
I very much suspect that gpt-4o's sycophancy is a case of blindly following engagement numbers. A *lot* of people want a sycophantic chatbot.
I hope you're right, but my fear/suspicion is that there isn't a schism because the membership doesn't reallllly find it disqualifying.
Belief in race science is objectionable, but tolerable. But that says something! And it's very very not good!
Belief in race science is objectionable, but tolerable. But that says something! And it's very very not good!
January 2, 2026 at 4:45 PM
I hope you're right, but my fear/suspicion is that there isn't a schism because the membership doesn't reallllly find it disqualifying.
Belief in race science is objectionable, but tolerable. But that says something! And it's very very not good!
Belief in race science is objectionable, but tolerable. But that says something! And it's very very not good!
Sure, I'm glad some are focused on funding healthcare in developing countries.
But I will remain forever skeptical of a movement that funds developing countries *while simultaneously believing that its residents are untermenschen*.
But I will remain forever skeptical of a movement that funds developing countries *while simultaneously believing that its residents are untermenschen*.
January 2, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Sure, I'm glad some are focused on funding healthcare in developing countries.
But I will remain forever skeptical of a movement that funds developing countries *while simultaneously believing that its residents are untermenschen*.
But I will remain forever skeptical of a movement that funds developing countries *while simultaneously believing that its residents are untermenschen*.
The inability for the movement at large to loudly repudiate this constantly playing-footsie with race science is disqualifying.
January 2, 2026 at 4:37 PM
The inability for the movement at large to loudly repudiate this constantly playing-footsie with race science is disqualifying.
I dunno man. As a racial minority in tech the thing that gut-shots EA for me is that many proponents are *really* enamored with race science and are generally massive racists.
And yes, Scott is a big part of that but he ain't the only one by a reaaaaaaally long shot.
And yes, Scott is a big part of that but he ain't the only one by a reaaaaaaally long shot.
January 2, 2026 at 4:37 PM
I dunno man. As a racial minority in tech the thing that gut-shots EA for me is that many proponents are *really* enamored with race science and are generally massive racists.
And yes, Scott is a big part of that but he ain't the only one by a reaaaaaaally long shot.
And yes, Scott is a big part of that but he ain't the only one by a reaaaaaaally long shot.
It's nuts... but no!
As exemplified by companies with flailing products thinking One Magical Hire will turn it all around!
As exemplified by companies with flailing products thinking One Magical Hire will turn it all around!
January 2, 2026 at 4:27 PM
It's nuts... but no!
As exemplified by companies with flailing products thinking One Magical Hire will turn it all around!
As exemplified by companies with flailing products thinking One Magical Hire will turn it all around!
The bottleneck is product. Which honestly has always been the weakest part of the industry.
January 1, 2026 at 7:45 PM
The bottleneck is product. Which honestly has always been the weakest part of the industry.