Echoes of the ballot: how Myanmar’s election shapes lives in Thailand
Echoes of the ballot: how Myanmar’s election shapes lives in Thailand
On 28 December, Myanmar will be holding its first general election since the February 2021 military coup. The election has been called a sham and a tool for the junta to maintain control, and many Myanmar migrants in Thailand are refusing to participate in it. Nevertheless, some have expressed concerns over their own safety if they do not vote.
A market in Samut Sakhon, in an area with a large Myanmar migrant community. (Photo by Nathaphob Sungkate)
“Thailand has never severed its ties with the Myanmar military — no matter how severe the crimes the military commit against civilians,” said Sue.
A Burmese Muslim of Indian descent, Sue came from Mandalay and is studying at a university in Thailand. For her, Thailand’s hosting of junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing at a regional summit in April 2025, when he had not been invited to any ASEAN country since the February 2021 military coup, revealed the long-standing ties between the Thai government and Myanmar’s junta – a relationship shaped by what has been described as Thailand’s “quiet diplomacy” toward its neighbour.
The upcoming election will be the first since the Myanmar military seized power in the February 2021 coup. It will be conducted in three phases and will take place in 274 out of 330 townships, with the remaining areas deemed too unstable for voting due to ongoing armed conflict. The first phase will take place on 28 December 2025, with the second phase set for 11 January 2026.
For Sue, the election is a sham, with a predetermined outcome, and she will not be participating in it.
“No way,” Sue told Prachatai. “I see no reason to participate in this election at all.”
Many other Myanmar migrants in Thailand share Sue’s sentiment. Yet regardless of whether they participate as overseas voters, the coming vote will inevitably affect the lives of at least 2.3 million Myanmar nationals living in Thailand.
The 2008 Constitution: The military’s shield, preserved through elections
An exhibition at the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) museum in Mae Sot, Tak, includes the names and photos of those killed by the Myanmar military after the 2021 coup. (Photo by Nathapob Sungkate)
Dr Sirada Khemanitthathai, lecturer at the School of International Affairs, Faculty of Political Science, Chiang Mai University, noted that the timing of the election is dictated by Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution, which mandates a national vote every five years.
“Min Aung Hlaing’s regime is a military regime which aims to maintain total control, using elections as a tool and the 2008 Constitution as a shield to protect itself,” she explains.
The 2008 Constitution is a legacy passed down from former military leader Thein Sein — a tightly engineered document that grants the military an entrenched, legalised grip on politics. What has changed, Sirada argues, is Min Aung Hlaing’s extreme conviction that civilian politics itself is the cause of national fragmentation.
This belief, she says, explains the unprecedented levels of violence used to repress Myanmar’s people since the 2021 coup.
“The 2021 coup was the wresting of power away from the ethnic Bamar majority, triggering the most violent resistance against military rule in Myanmar’s history — even more than in 1988.”
Sirada said that the majority of members in the People’s Defence Force (PDF), an anti-junta armed resistance formed by the National Unity Government (NUG) after the 2021 coup, are Bamar. The group has since engaged in intense fighting across Sagaing and Magway regions in the country’s northwest.
From this perspective, Sirada said, the upcoming election is not an attempt by the junta to resolve Myanmar’s crisis. Rather, it reflects an ambition to further pressure and suppress opposition groups under rules written entirely by the military — an approach that may escalate the already severe violence across the country.
“The military does not want anyone to touch the 2008 Constitution because it was deliberately engineered to preserve its power,” said Nay Phone Latt, spokesperson for the NUG Prime Minister’s Office.
Nay Phone Latt told Prachatai that the National League for Democracy (NLD) had attempted to amend the 2008 Constitution, but had never succeeded.
Under Article 109 of the charter, the military is guaranteed 25 percent of seats in both houses of parliament The quota effectively allows it to block any constitutional amendment since Article 436 requires the approval of more than 75 percent of members for changes to be made.
“Myanmar people do not reject elections. On the contrary, we have long fought for free and fair elections. What we reject is any election held under this constitution,” Nay Phone Latt said.
The NUG has outlined six strategic objectives, one of which calls for the complete abolition of the 2008 Constitution, the drafting and promulgation of a new democratic federal constitution, and the formation of a new federal democratic union aligned with that charter.
Sirada also highlights this point, noting that the idea of a “federal union” has become a central narrative within the anti-junta movement. But this concept poses a direct threat to the military, as it challenges the very foundation of the 2008 Constitution — the military’s most prized instrument of power. Consequently, the junta is using the upcoming election to claim legitimacy and preserve its authority through the existing constitutional framework.
Voices from abroad: how Myanmar migrants in Thailand view the election
A market in Samut Sakhon, in an area with a large Myanmar migrant community. (Photo by Nathaphob Sungkate)
“I know very well that this election is nothing but a grand deception. But I’m deeply worried about my family who remain in Myanmar. The military can easily throw them in jail if they refuse to cooperate with the vote, said Jerry, a Mon Burmese person from Lashio township in northern Shan state.
The 34-year-old works at a finance company in Thailand. He described the growing fear shared by many amidst reports that the Myanmar military has arrested more than 90 people on charges of obstructing the election process—some detained simply for reacting to posts supporting the revolution, and some celebrities arrested for refusing to help promote the election.
“Myanmar people have lived under military control for so long,” said Jerry. “From 2010 to 2020, we finally tasted democracy. We saw what freedom felt like—freedom without control.”
For Jerry, those years are the reason for Myanmar people who believe in democracy to remain hopeful. Even though he believes the upcoming election serves only the interests of military generals and big business, he worries that refusing to participate could harm Myanmar migrants in Thailand. Many rely on the Myanmar Embassy to renew their documents, and any perceived non-cooperation could endanger both them and their families back home.
“I’m fully aware they can punish us—especially through our documents,” he said.
Ko Zaw, a 45-year-old Burmese from Dawei, told Prachatai that the Myanmar migrants in Thailand received very little information about the upcoming election. The only thing he knew was that the Myanmar Embassy in Thailand had called for Myanmar citizens in Thailand to come out and vote.
A report by the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) notes that advance voter registration for overseas Myanmar nationals opened on 21 August and was initially set to close on 8 September, before being extended to 12 October — a move likely prompted by the low registration rate.
The same report also highlights that ballots cast outside Myanmar will be counted and announced before election day in what observers fear is an attempt by the military authorities to pre-shape results in their favour.
Ko Zaw criticised the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the military’s political proxy, saying the party will do whatever it takes to secure victory in this election.
“The military’s party lost the last election, and when they couldn’t win, they used guns,” he said. “If I had to give this election even one point for transparency, I wouldn’t.”
Ko Zaw urged the international community not to support the vote, warning that another wave of migration may follow the election as public trust in Myanmar’s political system continues to collapse.
Wichai Jantawaro, project manager the Spirit in Education Movement (SEM). (Photo by Nathaphob Sungkate).
Meanwhile, Wichai Jantawaro, project manager of the Spirit in Education Movement (SEM), which works to support democracy in Myanmar, told Prachatai that what Myanmar people want most right now is peace and an end to the war.
“For the Myanmar people, they will accept anything—if only it could stop the killing,” Wichai said, recounting conversations he has had with Myanmar people. “At this moment, there are no other alternatives. And choosing not to vote could endanger the lives of many.”
Wichai does not believe the upcoming election will lead to peace. But looking at the current reality, he sees a population exhausted by years of armed conflict, struggling to see any path toward ending the violence.
“I’m not saying this election is a solution,” he said. “But from another perspective, Myanmar people now have no options. If they don’t vote, they still can’t see any other way that would end the fighting.”
Still, Wichai noted a troubling rise in airstrikes compared to the same period last year. In October alone, there were 192 air attacks, killing at least 150 civilians. He said this escalation is part of the military’s broader push to retake as much territory as possible from resistance forces ahead of the election—an effort to ensure that voting can take place in as many areas as they are able to bring back under their control.
The electoral mechanisms themselves have also been engineered to ensure military control. The junta has repeatedly claimed that the 2020 election — in which the NLD won by a landslide — was marred by fraud. After seizing power, it appointed a new election commission stacked with former generals, forced all political parties to re-register, and subsequently dissolved 40 parties, including the NLD.
The military has also applied pressure on migrant workers to participate in the election. As Jerry observed, the system is designed to compel participation in a process they fundamentally reject.
“I will never take part in one of the most fraudulent elections in the world,” he said.
How Myanmar’s election affects Thailand
An event commemorating the third anniversary of the 2021 military coup, 1 February 2024. (Photo by Nathaphob Sungkate)
“If Myanmar has no democracy, that affects Thailand—through rising numbers of refugees, the problem of scam networks, and drugs,” said Pongsak Chanon, Director of WeWatch, an election monitoring organisation in Thailand.
Pongsak, also a former international election observer, told Prachatai that he has observed elections in over 30 countries but has never seen a process as deeply flawed as the one unfolding in Myanmar.
It violates all five fundamental principles of a fair election used by election observers: independence of the election management body, fair election laws, freedoms of expression and observation, fairness in the treatment of political rivals, and meaningful public participation.
These failures have already spilled over into Thailand. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), nearly 3.6 million people are now internally displaced across Myanmar, with some forced to flee into Thailand. Meanwhile, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reports that the ongoing instability has created unprecedented opportunities for drug production networks to expand, turning Thailand into both a transit route and a destination for illicit substances.
“If the Myanmar military can seize power, it will be legitimized in the eyes of neighbouring countries and weaken democracy across the region,” Pongsak warned.
He stressed that if the international community ignores what the Myanmar junta is doing, the political landscape of Southeast Asia will only worsen, as elections are being used as a tool to formalise military rule.
Wichai, meanwhile, believes that once the vote is concluded, global sanctions on Myanmar’s military government are likely to soften, prompting a return of foreign investment.
“It may sound good, but the return of investment in Myanmar is economic activity with very little benefit to the people there. The beneficiaries are investors and the tax collection. Meanwhile, the impact on Myanmar citizens increases,” Wichai said.
It is expected that investment in mining, natural gas, and other natural resources will begin flowing back into Myanmar after the election. Thailand is directly involved in these sectors. the Energy Statistics of Thailand 2025 report shows that the country still imports 11% of its natural gas from Myanmar.
“Some Thai businesspeople see the election as a way out,” Sirada said, noting that Thai goods and services remain in high demand in Myanmar. “Thai capitalists and Myanmar capitalists have long-standing commercial ties to each other, and these increased after 2010. So some in the business sector view this election as an opportunity even though the fact is that this election is nothing like the 2010 election, and is not a path toward peace.”
Sirada expects that after the election, activities such as mining, drug production, and cybercrime will continue to be controlled by armed groups with uncertain political allegiances. Even though the junta cannot fully control these groups, mutual business interests will likely keep the networks running, while serious attempts to address issues affecting Thailand remain absent.
“Thailand can talk to almost every political group in Myanmar, but it is not utilizing these channels advantageously,” she said.
Because of Thailand’s weak political institutions, Sirada said that every Thai government’s stance toward Myanmar’s elections and Myanmar politics is largely reactive and lacks a coherent foreign policy. This is compounded by what she describes as Thailand’s “inward-looking” mindset—a tendency to focus only on domestic affairs, despite the fact that Thailand is both a stakeholder and a country directly affected by Myanmar’s unfolding crisis.
“The groups who try not to interfere in Myanmar’s politics are the same ones who ask why too many migrant workers and refugees from Myanmar come to live in Thailand, even though these issues are directly connected,” she said.
The Thai Foreign Minister has reiterated Thailand’s support for ASEAN’s five-point consensus, alongside the bloc’s decision not to send an official election observer mission. He added that the Myanmar election planned by the military junta is “neither free nor credible,” reaffirming the government’s position that Thailand is not in a place to recognize the results under the current circumstances. He also called for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi on humanitarian grounds.
However, Thailand is often perceived as pursuing its own approach toward Myanmar, leading observers to assess that Thailand is more likely than other ASEAN member states to accept the election’s outcome.
Meanwhile, Nay Phone Latt stressed that international pressure is crucial and can drive real change, as one of the junta’s main goals is to secure international recognition through this election.
Nay Phone Latt added that the Myanmar military has been actively sending lobbyists to various countries, seeking to persuade the global community to accept the election results.
“That alone shows how much the junta cares about international recognition. So I urge all countries not to recognise the results and to closely monitor what is happening inside Myanmar,” he said.
Decision to leave Myanmar
A protester writing a message during the protest in front of the Myanmar Embassy in Bangkok on 1 February 2025 (Photo by Nathaphob Sungkate)
“I always say that the time of Myanmar’s youth stopped in 2019. We never got to grow beyond that year, since it was COVID-19 in 2020 and coup d'état later on. I was 14, and it felt like my life froze at that point,” Sue said. She is now searching for a path forward after completing her university studies in Thailand.
“At that time, we had so many dreams. I wanted to work to improve the education system, create opportunities for ethnic minorities, and become a social worker.”
But when asked what hopes she still holds regarding Myanmar’s current situation, Sue said the reality now is that many Myanmar people cannot return home and have no idea what their future will look like.
“My dream has shifted from wanting to develop my country to wanting to escape and start a new life somewhere else. We just want a normal life — to live with our families in safety. Our dreams have become smaller, reduced to simply protecting our own lives, rather than pursuing the big dreams we once had.”
As a young person, Sue believes the country does not need an election designed to reinforce military power. What it needs is an election that brings intellectual leadership. For her generation, the military’s claim that its role is to “protect national security” is no longer an answer to the country’s development needs. What Myanmar needs today is education, a functioning healthcare system, and proper infrastructure — things the military is incapable of providing.
“The military is not trained to build roads or run an economy. They are trained to fight. But today, they are fighting their own people — using a fraudulent election as a tool to legitimise themselves.”This article is produced under the ANFREL Media Fellowship on Election Reporting.
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Tue, 2025-12-16 - 11:36
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