Thanks! 🙏 Happy to hear it resonated.

You can first combine the xG of multiple shots in a possession as 1 − ∏(1 − xGᵢ).

“What if, when the opposition has 11 players behind the ball, a centre-back decided it was more worthwhile to ‘kick for touch’ rather than attempt to play through midfield?”

Oh boy do I have a research presentation for you

It should work for the 2025/26 season. You only need to disable the cache once to discover the new season (see also github.com/probberechts...).

📊 Our interactive visualization provides detailed odds for each team advancing past the group stage and eventually winning the tournament. We will update the probabilities after each round.

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/euro2...

According to our simulations, the top 5 favorites are:

🇪🇸 29% 🇩🇪 26% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 19% 🇸🇪 11% 🇫🇷 9%

We estimate each team’s strength based on historical performances using Elo ratings. Then, we run Monte-Carlo simulations to calculate the probability of every team reaching each stage of the tournament.