Michael Hicks
@profhicks.bsky.social
Father of three marvels, lucky husband, parent lottery winner. Retired infantry soldier, George & Frances Ball Professor of Economics at Ball State’s Center for Business and Economic Research. https://www.bsu.edu/cber
I know this graphic doesn't contain the robust casual evidence that say, RFK, jr's HHS demands, but it is almost like something tangible happened last April that has sent the US economy into a moribund state.
I wonder what it could've possibly been?
I wonder what it could've possibly been?
December 16, 2025 at 6:07 PM
I know this graphic doesn't contain the robust casual evidence that say, RFK, jr's HHS demands, but it is almost like something tangible happened last April that has sent the US economy into a moribund state.
I wonder what it could've possibly been?
I wonder what it could've possibly been?
Looks like the GOP's effort to create a multi-ethnic working class has run into a few minefields . . . which they laid themselves.
Also looks like a 4 year degree continues to provide good insulation against economic shocks.
Also looks like a 4 year degree continues to provide good insulation against economic shocks.
December 9, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Looks like the GOP's effort to create a multi-ethnic working class has run into a few minefields . . . which they laid themselves.
Also looks like a 4 year degree continues to provide good insulation against economic shocks.
Also looks like a 4 year degree continues to provide good insulation against economic shocks.
My newest post on the local labor market effects of Data Centers . . .
#DataCenters @profweinstein.bsky.social
michaeljhicks.substack.com/p/data-cente...
#DataCenters @profweinstein.bsky.social
michaeljhicks.substack.com/p/data-cente...
November 10, 2025 at 7:27 PM
My newest post on the local labor market effects of Data Centers . . .
#DataCenters @profweinstein.bsky.social
michaeljhicks.substack.com/p/data-cente...
#DataCenters @profweinstein.bsky.social
michaeljhicks.substack.com/p/data-cente...
What possibly could've happened in April to cause prices to rise this precipitously ever since?
A real mystery wrapped in an enigma.
A real mystery wrapped in an enigma.
September 11, 2025 at 7:22 PM
What possibly could've happened in April to cause prices to rise this precipitously ever since?
A real mystery wrapped in an enigma.
A real mystery wrapped in an enigma.
This graphic should be food for thought as we hear increasing calls for farm bail-outs due to the (plainly predictable) negative effects of Tariffs.
American farmers sure are rugged individualists un-tethered to government like all those city folk.
American farmers sure are rugged individualists un-tethered to government like all those city folk.
September 8, 2025 at 3:29 PM
This graphic should be food for thought as we hear increasing calls for farm bail-outs due to the (plainly predictable) negative effects of Tariffs.
American farmers sure are rugged individualists un-tethered to government like all those city folk.
American farmers sure are rugged individualists un-tethered to government like all those city folk.
2/ The disaggregated data on actual labor market outcomes (age/degree/wages) is not yet available, so we have build some inference. This data on help wanted ads for workers wit, "no experience necessary/none listed" for both HS and BA/BS grads tells a different story.
August 8, 2025 at 3:35 PM
2/ The disaggregated data on actual labor market outcomes (age/degree/wages) is not yet available, so we have build some inference. This data on help wanted ads for workers wit, "no experience necessary/none listed" for both HS and BA/BS grads tells a different story.
Who could have anticipated that stochastic (hormal?) deployment of known job killing policies would kill jobs? A real mystery #MAGA.
Note: Anticipate more downward revisions.
Note: Anticipate more downward revisions.
August 1, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Who could have anticipated that stochastic (hormal?) deployment of known job killing policies would kill jobs? A real mystery #MAGA.
Note: Anticipate more downward revisions.
Note: Anticipate more downward revisions.
Looks like there might have been a bumpy start to that multi-ethnic working class majority party I've heard so much about.
July 25, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Looks like there might have been a bumpy start to that multi-ethnic working class majority party I've heard so much about.
Just about how economic theory suggests . . .
June 27, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Just about how economic theory suggests . . .
Just checking in to see how that Trade War is going.
June 27, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Just checking in to see how that Trade War is going.
On this day, 250 years ago the Continental Congress authorized the creation of six rifle companies — the birthday of the United States Army!
Proud to have served in 3 of those 190 campaigns.
Proud to have served in 3 of those 190 campaigns.
June 14, 2025 at 1:34 PM
On this day, 250 years ago the Continental Congress authorized the creation of six rifle companies — the birthday of the United States Army!
Proud to have served in 3 of those 190 campaigns.
Proud to have served in 3 of those 190 campaigns.
Help Wanted advertisements since 'Liberation Day.'
Consistent with received theory and evidence of the effect of tariffs.
It would seem that "multicultural working class majority" party the GOP is trying to shape-shift into, might need a bit of policy adjustment.
Consistent with received theory and evidence of the effect of tariffs.
It would seem that "multicultural working class majority" party the GOP is trying to shape-shift into, might need a bit of policy adjustment.
June 11, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Help Wanted advertisements since 'Liberation Day.'
Consistent with received theory and evidence of the effect of tariffs.
It would seem that "multicultural working class majority" party the GOP is trying to shape-shift into, might need a bit of policy adjustment.
Consistent with received theory and evidence of the effect of tariffs.
It would seem that "multicultural working class majority" party the GOP is trying to shape-shift into, might need a bit of policy adjustment.
1/ Some good news. The deep negative shock to Help Wanted Advertisements (forward looking, uncertainty sensitive indicators) seem to have stabilized at about a 25% reduction since Liberation Day.
May 27, 2025 at 6:58 PM
1/ Some good news. The deep negative shock to Help Wanted Advertisements (forward looking, uncertainty sensitive indicators) seem to have stabilized at about a 25% reduction since Liberation Day.
The USA went from an academic backwater at the turn of the last century, to the largest agglomeration of science in history. Immigrants were instrumental in that.
Kill immigration, we will transfer our basis of scientific mastery to someone willing to pay the pittance needed to do so.
Kill immigration, we will transfer our basis of scientific mastery to someone willing to pay the pittance needed to do so.
May 23, 2025 at 10:12 PM
The USA went from an academic backwater at the turn of the last century, to the largest agglomeration of science in history. Immigrants were instrumental in that.
Kill immigration, we will transfer our basis of scientific mastery to someone willing to pay the pittance needed to do so.
Kill immigration, we will transfer our basis of scientific mastery to someone willing to pay the pittance needed to do so.
2/ The distributional effects of the #tariffs and uncertainty have a supply side effect as well. It isn't just higher prices that affect families differently, but also the incidence of employment risk. @scottlincicome.bsky.social
May 19, 2025 at 4:27 PM
2/ The distributional effects of the #tariffs and uncertainty have a supply side effect as well. It isn't just higher prices that affect families differently, but also the incidence of employment risk. @scottlincicome.bsky.social
1/ The daunting economic uncertainty plus the largest tax increase in US history is having just about the effect one might anticipate.
Broad, sharp downturn. Source RTI Help Wanted Ads, via Chmura Economics.
#Tariffs @scottlincicome
Broad, sharp downturn. Source RTI Help Wanted Ads, via Chmura Economics.
#Tariffs @scottlincicome
May 19, 2025 at 4:25 PM
1/ The daunting economic uncertainty plus the largest tax increase in US history is having just about the effect one might anticipate.
Broad, sharp downturn. Source RTI Help Wanted Ads, via Chmura Economics.
#Tariffs @scottlincicome
Broad, sharp downturn. Source RTI Help Wanted Ads, via Chmura Economics.
#Tariffs @scottlincicome
2/ 2/ Indiana imports $100 Bill manufactured goods, almost all of which are intermediate goods. As a share of last year's manufacturing GDP, this is a stunningly large tax. In comparison, the one year state general fund budget is $20.1 Billion.
May 13, 2025 at 5:14 PM
2/ 2/ Indiana imports $100 Bill manufactured goods, almost all of which are intermediate goods. As a share of last year's manufacturing GDP, this is a stunningly large tax. In comparison, the one year state general fund budget is $20.1 Billion.
1/ I've received a number of messages criticizing my revised state forecast. Clearly, with tariff changes in capitulation day, the forecast is better. But, a) I was already optimistic in 1st QTR (Indiana's will be much worse) and the new tariff rates are still recessionary.
May 13, 2025 at 5:11 PM
1/ I've received a number of messages criticizing my revised state forecast. Clearly, with tariff changes in capitulation day, the forecast is better. But, a) I was already optimistic in 1st QTR (Indiana's will be much worse) and the new tariff rates are still recessionary.
2/ This is the 5th or 6th tax change on China in 90 days, and is a 90 day extension. The order/manufacture/delivery cycle from China is typically longer than 90 days.
This raises, rather than reduces record economic uncertainty.
This raises, rather than reduces record economic uncertainty.
May 12, 2025 at 2:30 PM
2/ This is the 5th or 6th tax change on China in 90 days, and is a 90 day extension. The order/manufacture/delivery cycle from China is typically longer than 90 days.
This raises, rather than reduces record economic uncertainty.
This raises, rather than reduces record economic uncertainty.
I don't know if I'd want to the head of a union that supported this sort of carnage for his members.
@teamsters.bsky.social
@teamsters.bsky.social
May 9, 2025 at 4:21 PM
I don't know if I'd want to the head of a union that supported this sort of carnage for his members.
@teamsters.bsky.social
@teamsters.bsky.social
Synchronicity -- the collapse of active help wanted ads since Liberation Day.
Remember folks, this is what they said they'd do in Project 2025. This is what they said they'd do in the campaign. Nearly half of us voted for this.
#tradewar
Remember folks, this is what they said they'd do in Project 2025. This is what they said they'd do in the campaign. Nearly half of us voted for this.
#tradewar
May 9, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Synchronicity -- the collapse of active help wanted ads since Liberation Day.
Remember folks, this is what they said they'd do in Project 2025. This is what they said they'd do in the campaign. Nearly half of us voted for this.
#tradewar
Remember folks, this is what they said they'd do in Project 2025. This is what they said they'd do in the campaign. Nearly half of us voted for this.
#tradewar
4/ But, the rush to move things is winding down.
Help Wanted ads are now down 35% in the state for logistics firms (transport and material moving occupations)
Just an economic disaster unfolding before our eyes.
Help Wanted ads are now down 35% in the state for logistics firms (transport and material moving occupations)
Just an economic disaster unfolding before our eyes.
May 5, 2025 at 6:16 PM
4/ But, the rush to move things is winding down.
Help Wanted ads are now down 35% in the state for logistics firms (transport and material moving occupations)
Just an economic disaster unfolding before our eyes.
Help Wanted ads are now down 35% in the state for logistics firms (transport and material moving occupations)
Just an economic disaster unfolding before our eyes.
3/ Ironically, logistics has been buffered by a big surge in imports in January and Feb (here's the nation's most manufacturing reliant state (Indiana) almost doubling imports in preparation for tariffs.
May 5, 2025 at 6:06 PM
3/ Ironically, logistics has been buffered by a big surge in imports in January and Feb (here's the nation's most manufacturing reliant state (Indiana) almost doubling imports in preparation for tariffs.
2/ This is the worst of the COVID drops . . . and it is indistinguishable from logistics right now (note this is weekly data, same source (RTI Job Listings through Chmura Economics).
Economic effects are imminent, single digit weeks away from broad damage.
Economic effects are imminent, single digit weeks away from broad damage.
May 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
2/ This is the worst of the COVID drops . . . and it is indistinguishable from logistics right now (note this is weekly data, same source (RTI Job Listings through Chmura Economics).
Economic effects are imminent, single digit weeks away from broad damage.
Economic effects are imminent, single digit weeks away from broad damage.
1/ Active help wanted ads for logistics firms are down a stunning 40% since Jan 20, with a just astonishing 25% decline since "Liberation Day."
As context, help wanted ads for "Hospitality, Events and Tourism" dropped by 42% from Feb 2020 through May 2020.
#tariffs
As context, help wanted ads for "Hospitality, Events and Tourism" dropped by 42% from Feb 2020 through May 2020.
#tariffs
May 5, 2025 at 5:59 PM
1/ Active help wanted ads for logistics firms are down a stunning 40% since Jan 20, with a just astonishing 25% decline since "Liberation Day."
As context, help wanted ads for "Hospitality, Events and Tourism" dropped by 42% from Feb 2020 through May 2020.
#tariffs
As context, help wanted ads for "Hospitality, Events and Tourism" dropped by 42% from Feb 2020 through May 2020.
#tariffs