18/ Conclusions 4: Policy measures are needed to drive this transition, with solar PV, wind, batteries, and electrolysers as key technologies for the #Caribbean’s carbon neutrality by 2050 or earlier. Additional graphical results can be found in the Supplementary Material

17/ Conclusions 3: The #Caribbean can reduce reliance on fossil fuels by adopting low-cost solar energy, creating a Solar-to-X Economy ideal for tropical islands globally.

16/ Conclusions 2: Batteries support PV-battery hybrids & grid interconnection enhances flexibility, reduces costs & supports wind with limited PV. Sector coupling & PtX improve efficiency. Electric road transport with V2G adds flexibility & grid-connected renew paths are 1-10% cheaper.

15/ Conclusions 1: PV-battery hybrid solutions emerge as the most economical option for the #Caribbean, and the possibility of this hybrid configuration dominating the future energy system is also echoed in recent literature.

14/ The #PtXeconomy will emerge an important framework across the #Caribbean energy sectors, via direct and indirect electrification approaches. twitter.com/ChristianOnR...

13/ #Cuba generates 25% of the #Caribbean’s 863 TWh electricity, followed by #Haiti and the Dominican Republic at 17% each. The regional average price is 30 €/MWh, with four nodes below this. By 2050, e-hydrogen and e-FTL fuels will comprise 46% and 30% of the fuel supply, respectively.

12/ Early defossilisation, illustrated in the BPSs, leads to early phase-out of fossil fuels, prioritises RE technologies and achieves 5-10% lower cumulative energy system CO2 emissions.

11/ Renewables-dominated paths have 7-24% lower cumulative costs as alternatives, with grid integration cutting costs by 1-10%. Accelerated transition paths cost 3-12% more as full defossilisation by 2050. Importing e-fuels lowers system costs by 7-16% & supports local resource use.

10/ e-Fuels will be essential for defossilising the hard-to-abate demands. By 2050, sustainable fuels will contribute to replacing all fossil fuels.

9/ Three electricity trade patterns are observed: With 1% onshore PV, CU and DO lead exports (90 TWh, 45 TWh), and HT is the top importer (80 TWh). Higher wind shares shift exports to CU (85 TWh), TCBB (70 TWh), PRV (35 TWh), and HT imports 110 TWh. The third pattern is with 6% onshore PV.

8/ Grid utilisation correlates with dominant technology profiles, such as solar PV or wind power. Scenarios with 30% wind show higher grid utilisation, indicating a wind-grid correlation, while those with 12% wind power have lower utilisation, showing a PV-storage correlation.

7/ The energy system includes electricity, heat, and gas storage. Batteries for prosumer and utility-scale use, along with V2G, are essential for daily solar PV storage.

5/ Background: Electricity is the main energy carrier in the #Caribbean, with sector electrification growing 3-8x faster in generation and 4-20x more installed capacity by 2050 compared to 2020.

4/ Background: This study makes a pivotal contribution as the first to analyse the #Caribbean with this level of granularity, employing a 9-node aggregation approach to represent grid interconnections.

2/ Novelties of the research: This study offers novel insights into the energy transition of archipelagic nations, enriching the global discourse on grid interconnection, early decarbonisation, and the strategic importance of e-fuel imports for land-constrained regions.