Quantlake
@quantlake.bsky.social
Beat fear. Beat FOMO. Stay disciplined with ETF insights and quant strategies. Not financial advice.
Sectors show broad strength, but leadership is shifting.
XLV led with 12.1% 3-month momentum; XLK held 6.2% despite volatility.
XLK had the sharpest weekly loss, down -5.5 pts, and XLC flipped negative after a -2.8 pts slide.
Breakouts in XLF/XLI contrast with breakdowns in XLU/XLC.
XLV led with 12.1% 3-month momentum; XLK held 6.2% despite volatility.
XLK had the sharpest weekly loss, down -5.5 pts, and XLC flipped negative after a -2.8 pts slide.
Breakouts in XLF/XLI contrast with breakdowns in XLU/XLC.
December 13, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Sectors show broad strength, but leadership is shifting.
XLV led with 12.1% 3-month momentum; XLK held 6.2% despite volatility.
XLK had the sharpest weekly loss, down -5.5 pts, and XLC flipped negative after a -2.8 pts slide.
Breakouts in XLF/XLI contrast with breakdowns in XLU/XLC.
XLV led with 12.1% 3-month momentum; XLK held 6.2% despite volatility.
XLK had the sharpest weekly loss, down -5.5 pts, and XLC flipped negative after a -2.8 pts slide.
Breakouts in XLF/XLI contrast with breakdowns in XLU/XLC.
Alternatives show mixed signals as leadership narrows, volatility stays high.
GDX led with 22.8% 3-month momentum, IBB at 20.2%.
MTUM turned negative, now -1.4% after a -5.1 weekly slide; SMH lost -7.9.
Breakouts: PAVE, GDX, IBB. Breakdowns: MTUM, IBIT.
GDX led with 22.8% 3-month momentum, IBB at 20.2%.
MTUM turned negative, now -1.4% after a -5.1 weekly slide; SMH lost -7.9.
Breakouts: PAVE, GDX, IBB. Breakdowns: MTUM, IBIT.
December 13, 2025 at 10:12 PM
Alternatives show mixed signals as leadership narrows, volatility stays high.
GDX led with 22.8% 3-month momentum, IBB at 20.2%.
MTUM turned negative, now -1.4% after a -5.1 weekly slide; SMH lost -7.9.
Breakouts: PAVE, GDX, IBB. Breakdowns: MTUM, IBIT.
GDX led with 22.8% 3-month momentum, IBB at 20.2%.
MTUM turned negative, now -1.4% after a -5.1 weekly slide; SMH lost -7.9.
Breakouts: PAVE, GDX, IBB. Breakdowns: MTUM, IBIT.
Across fixed income, momentum leadership started to fracture as weekly deceleration hit nearly every corner of the bond universe.
EMB held up best at 2.3% 3-month momentum, JNK next at 1.0%.
LQD and TLT both flipped negative, TLT down -2.5 pts, LQD -1.4 pts, sharpest reversals.
EMB held up best at 2.3% 3-month momentum, JNK next at 1.0%.
LQD and TLT both flipped negative, TLT down -2.5 pts, LQD -1.4 pts, sharpest reversals.
December 13, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Across fixed income, momentum leadership started to fracture as weekly deceleration hit nearly every corner of the bond universe.
EMB held up best at 2.3% 3-month momentum, JNK next at 1.0%.
LQD and TLT both flipped negative, TLT down -2.5 pts, LQD -1.4 pts, sharpest reversals.
EMB held up best at 2.3% 3-month momentum, JNK next at 1.0%.
LQD and TLT both flipped negative, TLT down -2.5 pts, LQD -1.4 pts, sharpest reversals.
In equities, broad-based strength stayed intact but leadership rotated sharply under the surface.
IWM led with 6.8% 3-month momentum, SLYV surged to 6.4% and joined the leaders.
SPYG dropped -4.5 points week-over-week, VWO fell -3.8; SDY flipped positive after being flat.
IWM led with 6.8% 3-month momentum, SLYV surged to 6.4% and joined the leaders.
SPYG dropped -4.5 points week-over-week, VWO fell -3.8; SDY flipped positive after being flat.
December 13, 2025 at 10:04 PM
In equities, broad-based strength stayed intact but leadership rotated sharply under the surface.
IWM led with 6.8% 3-month momentum, SLYV surged to 6.4% and joined the leaders.
SPYG dropped -4.5 points week-over-week, VWO fell -3.8; SDY flipped positive after being flat.
IWM led with 6.8% 3-month momentum, SLYV surged to 6.4% and joined the leaders.
SPYG dropped -4.5 points week-over-week, VWO fell -3.8; SDY flipped positive after being flat.
When Optimism Peaks, Returns Often Cool
Investor expectations tend to rise after strong returns—but that optimism doesn’t always match reality. Research suggests expected returns are often highest right before performance slows.
Investor expectations tend to rise after strong returns—but that optimism doesn’t always match reality. Research suggests expected returns are often highest right before performance slows.
December 13, 2025 at 5:36 PM
When Optimism Peaks, Returns Often Cool
Investor expectations tend to rise after strong returns—but that optimism doesn’t always match reality. Research suggests expected returns are often highest right before performance slows.
Investor expectations tend to rise after strong returns—but that optimism doesn’t always match reality. Research suggests expected returns are often highest right before performance slows.
Ever felt the urge to sell after a market drop? You’re not alone. Behavioral finance research shows that loss aversion often leads investors to act on fear—selling low and missing recoveries.
→ Check if your portfolio strategy includes rules that help you stay rational during volatility.
→ Check if your portfolio strategy includes rules that help you stay rational during volatility.
December 12, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Ever felt the urge to sell after a market drop? You’re not alone. Behavioral finance research shows that loss aversion often leads investors to act on fear—selling low and missing recoveries.
→ Check if your portfolio strategy includes rules that help you stay rational during volatility.
→ Check if your portfolio strategy includes rules that help you stay rational during volatility.
SPY Medium White Candle: Bullish Edge Improves in QHI 20–40
Dec 11
All conds: mean 1.12% | Predicted gains 69.0%
In QHI 20–40: mean 1.43% | Predicted gains 71.8%
Bullish edge higher in QHI 20–40, but downside tail risk remains.
Dec 11
All conds: mean 1.12% | Predicted gains 69.0%
In QHI 20–40: mean 1.43% | Predicted gains 71.8%
Bullish edge higher in QHI 20–40, but downside tail risk remains.
December 12, 2025 at 12:28 PM
SPY Medium White Candle: Bullish Edge Improves in QHI 20–40
Dec 11
All conds: mean 1.12% | Predicted gains 69.0%
In QHI 20–40: mean 1.43% | Predicted gains 71.8%
Bullish edge higher in QHI 20–40, but downside tail risk remains.
Dec 11
All conds: mean 1.12% | Predicted gains 69.0%
In QHI 20–40: mean 1.43% | Predicted gains 71.8%
Bullish edge higher in QHI 20–40, but downside tail risk remains.
Pessimism sticks around — yet SPY 1M returns outperform the baseline in QHI Fear.
QHI now at 34.6, up 2.6, with a 3-day up streak.
Fear has held for 18 days, much longer than usual.
SPY 1M return in Fear: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI now at 34.6, up 2.6, with a 3-day up streak.
Fear has held for 18 days, much longer than usual.
SPY 1M return in Fear: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
December 12, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Pessimism sticks around — yet SPY 1M returns outperform the baseline in QHI Fear.
QHI now at 34.6, up 2.6, with a 3-day up streak.
Fear has held for 18 days, much longer than usual.
SPY 1M return in Fear: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI now at 34.6, up 2.6, with a 3-day up streak.
Fear has held for 18 days, much longer than usual.
SPY 1M return in Fear: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
EM Bonds little changed – Thursday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
EMB +0.07%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
VGIT +0.03%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
TLT -0.14%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
LQD -0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
EMB +0.07%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
VGIT +0.03%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
TLT -0.14%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
LQD -0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
December 12, 2025 at 11:21 AM
EM Bonds little changed – Thursday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
EMB +0.07%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
VGIT +0.03%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
TLT -0.14%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
LQD -0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
EMB +0.07%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
VGIT +0.03%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
TLT -0.14%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
LQD -0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Small-Cap Growth climbs – Thursday
What Happened:
Top 2:
SLYG +1.21%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
IWM +1.17%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VWO -0.22%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
QQQ -0.32%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
What Happened:
Top 2:
SLYG +1.21%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
IWM +1.17%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VWO -0.22%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
QQQ -0.32%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
December 12, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Small-Cap Growth climbs – Thursday
What Happened:
Top 2:
SLYG +1.21%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
IWM +1.17%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VWO -0.22%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
QQQ -0.32%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
What Happened:
Top 2:
SLYG +1.21%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
IWM +1.17%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VWO -0.22%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
QQQ -0.32%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Gold Miners rally – Thursday
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
GDX +3.53%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
ICLN +1.79%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
IBIT -0.74%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
SMH -0.86%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
GDX +3.53%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
ICLN +1.79%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
IBIT -0.74%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
SMH -0.86%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
December 12, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Gold Miners rally – Thursday
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
GDX +3.53%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
ICLN +1.79%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
IBIT -0.74%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
SMH -0.86%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
GDX +3.53%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
ICLN +1.79%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
IBIT -0.74%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
SMH -0.86%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SPY Separating Lines Bullish: Edge Amplifies in QHI 20–40
Dec 10
All conds: mean 1.29% | Predicted gains 69.0%
In QHI 20–40: mean 1.68% | Predicted gains 71.4% | Low confidence
Fact: Bullish edge held; QHI 20–40 amplified returns, but sample is low confidence.
Dec 10
All conds: mean 1.29% | Predicted gains 69.0%
In QHI 20–40: mean 1.68% | Predicted gains 71.4% | Low confidence
Fact: Bullish edge held; QHI 20–40 amplified returns, but sample is low confidence.
December 11, 2025 at 1:11 PM
SPY Separating Lines Bullish: Edge Amplifies in QHI 20–40
Dec 10
All conds: mean 1.29% | Predicted gains 69.0%
In QHI 20–40: mean 1.68% | Predicted gains 71.4% | Low confidence
Fact: Bullish edge held; QHI 20–40 amplified returns, but sample is low confidence.
Dec 10
All conds: mean 1.29% | Predicted gains 69.0%
In QHI 20–40: mean 1.68% | Predicted gains 71.4% | Low confidence
Fact: Bullish edge held; QHI 20–40 amplified returns, but sample is low confidence.
Fear zone persists — SPY 1M returns edge past baseline.
QHI now at 32.0, up 2.2, with 17 days in Fear.
SPY 1M returns in this zone: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI is 51% under its 3M average, and volatility is running 1.2x typical.
Longest Fear streak stands at 39 days.
QHI now at 32.0, up 2.2, with 17 days in Fear.
SPY 1M returns in this zone: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI is 51% under its 3M average, and volatility is running 1.2x typical.
Longest Fear streak stands at 39 days.
December 11, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Fear zone persists — SPY 1M returns edge past baseline.
QHI now at 32.0, up 2.2, with 17 days in Fear.
SPY 1M returns in this zone: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI is 51% under its 3M average, and volatility is running 1.2x typical.
Longest Fear streak stands at 39 days.
QHI now at 32.0, up 2.2, with 17 days in Fear.
SPY 1M returns in this zone: 1.52% vs. 1.26% baseline.
QHI is 51% under its 3M average, and volatility is running 1.2x typical.
Longest Fear streak stands at 39 days.
Investment Grade Credit rises – Wednesday
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
LQD +0.46%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
EMB +0.41%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VCSH +0.21%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
BNDX -0.02%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
LQD +0.46%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
EMB +0.41%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VCSH +0.21%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
BNDX -0.02%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
December 11, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Investment Grade Credit rises – Wednesday
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
LQD +0.46%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
EMB +0.41%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VCSH +0.21%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
BNDX -0.02%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
LQD +0.46%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
EMB +0.41%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VCSH +0.21%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
BNDX -0.02%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Small-Cap Value surges – Wednesday
Performance Breakdown:
Top 2:
SLYV +2.27%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
MDYV +2.19%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
QQQ +0.41%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IWF +0.16%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Performance Breakdown:
Top 2:
SLYV +2.27%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
MDYV +2.19%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
QQQ +0.41%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IWF +0.16%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
December 11, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Small-Cap Value surges – Wednesday
Performance Breakdown:
Top 2:
SLYV +2.27%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
MDYV +2.19%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
QQQ +0.41%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IWF +0.16%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Performance Breakdown:
Top 2:
SLYV +2.27%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
MDYV +2.19%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
QQQ +0.41%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IWF +0.16%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Infrastructure rallies – Wednesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
PAVE +2.00%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
GDX +1.68%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
QYLD +0.06%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT -0.68%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
PAVE +2.00%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
GDX +1.68%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
QYLD +0.06%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT -0.68%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
December 11, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Infrastructure rallies – Wednesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
PAVE +2.00%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
GDX +1.68%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
QYLD +0.06%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT -0.68%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
PAVE +2.00%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
GDX +1.68%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
QYLD +0.06%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT -0.68%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
When markets fall, do you freeze or rebalance? A systematic ETF approach helps remove hesitation—making room for measured, consistent adjustments rather than reactive decisions.
→ Set a calendar-based check-in, not an emotion-based one.
→ Set a calendar-based check-in, not an emotion-based one.
December 10, 2025 at 7:03 PM
When markets fall, do you freeze or rebalance? A systematic ETF approach helps remove hesitation—making room for measured, consistent adjustments rather than reactive decisions.
→ Set a calendar-based check-in, not an emotion-based one.
→ Set a calendar-based check-in, not an emotion-based one.
What drives markets more—data or stories? Narratives shape investor behavior, often more than fundamentals. These shared beliefs can drive prices and risk-taking, even in the absence of new information.
December 10, 2025 at 4:10 PM
What drives markets more—data or stories? Narratives shape investor behavior, often more than fundamentals. These shared beliefs can drive prices and risk-taking, even in the absence of new information.
Long Treasuries edge up – Tuesday
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
TLT +0.10%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
BNDX +0.08%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VGIT -0.13%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
JNK -0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
TLT +0.10%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
BNDX +0.08%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VGIT -0.13%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
JNK -0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
December 10, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Long Treasuries edge up – Tuesday
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
TLT +0.10%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
BNDX +0.08%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VGIT -0.13%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
JNK -0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
TLT +0.10%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
BNDX +0.08%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VGIT -0.13%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
JNK -0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Small-Cap Value rises – Tuesday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
SLYV +0.55%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SLYG +0.38%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
MDYG -0.18%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
SDY -0.23%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Market Moves:
Top 2:
SLYV +0.55%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SLYG +0.38%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
MDYG -0.18%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
SDY -0.23%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
December 10, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Small-Cap Value rises – Tuesday
Market Moves:
Top 2:
SLYV +0.55%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SLYG +0.38%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
MDYG -0.18%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
SDY -0.23%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Market Moves:
Top 2:
SLYV +0.55%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SLYG +0.38%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
MDYG -0.18%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
SDY -0.23%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
$SPY Short Black Candle
Dec 9
All conds (1-month fwd): mean 1.3%, median 1.92%, p25 -0.53%, p75 3.72% | Predicted declines 30.0% (n=633) | skew -2.2, kurt 14.2
In QHI 20–40 (1-month fwd): mean 1.77%, median 2.19%, p25 -0.19%, p75 3.54% | Predicted declines 26.5% (n=136) | skew -0.8, kurt 3.6
Dec 9
All conds (1-month fwd): mean 1.3%, median 1.92%, p25 -0.53%, p75 3.72% | Predicted declines 30.0% (n=633) | skew -2.2, kurt 14.2
In QHI 20–40 (1-month fwd): mean 1.77%, median 2.19%, p25 -0.19%, p75 3.54% | Predicted declines 26.5% (n=136) | skew -0.8, kurt 3.6
December 10, 2025 at 12:03 PM
$SPY Short Black Candle
Dec 9
All conds (1-month fwd): mean 1.3%, median 1.92%, p25 -0.53%, p75 3.72% | Predicted declines 30.0% (n=633) | skew -2.2, kurt 14.2
In QHI 20–40 (1-month fwd): mean 1.77%, median 2.19%, p25 -0.19%, p75 3.54% | Predicted declines 26.5% (n=136) | skew -0.8, kurt 3.6
Dec 9
All conds (1-month fwd): mean 1.3%, median 1.92%, p25 -0.53%, p75 3.72% | Predicted declines 30.0% (n=633) | skew -2.2, kurt 14.2
In QHI 20–40 (1-month fwd): mean 1.77%, median 2.19%, p25 -0.19%, p75 3.54% | Predicted declines 26.5% (n=136) | skew -0.8, kurt 3.6
Pessimism lingers — SPY 1M returns edge past baseline.
Quantlake Herd Index at 29.9, 16 days in Fear.
SPY’s 1M return from Fear: 1.52% vs 1.26% baseline.
QHI is 55% below its 3M average.
Volatility at 1.5x norm shows heightened emotion.
Transitions: 44% to Extreme Fear, 56% to Neutral.
Quantlake Herd Index at 29.9, 16 days in Fear.
SPY’s 1M return from Fear: 1.52% vs 1.26% baseline.
QHI is 55% below its 3M average.
Volatility at 1.5x norm shows heightened emotion.
Transitions: 44% to Extreme Fear, 56% to Neutral.
December 10, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Pessimism lingers — SPY 1M returns edge past baseline.
Quantlake Herd Index at 29.9, 16 days in Fear.
SPY’s 1M return from Fear: 1.52% vs 1.26% baseline.
QHI is 55% below its 3M average.
Volatility at 1.5x norm shows heightened emotion.
Transitions: 44% to Extreme Fear, 56% to Neutral.
Quantlake Herd Index at 29.9, 16 days in Fear.
SPY’s 1M return from Fear: 1.52% vs 1.26% baseline.
QHI is 55% below its 3M average.
Volatility at 1.5x norm shows heightened emotion.
Transitions: 44% to Extreme Fear, 56% to Neutral.
Do more choices mean better outcomes? Research shows that too many investment options can lead to confusion—and safer, less optimal decisions. Simplicity often leads to better allocation choices, especially in retirement plans.
December 10, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Do more choices mean better outcomes? Research shows that too many investment options can lead to confusion—and safer, less optimal decisions. Simplicity often leads to better allocation choices, especially in retirement plans.
Gold Miners rally – Tuesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
GDX +3.51%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT +2.58%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
Bottom 2:
PAVE -0.78%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBB -1.68%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
GDX +3.51%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT +2.58%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
Bottom 2:
PAVE -0.78%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBB -1.68%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
December 10, 2025 at 6:58 AM
Gold Miners rally – Tuesday
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
GDX +3.51%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT +2.58%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
Bottom 2:
PAVE -0.78%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBB -1.68%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
GDX +3.51%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT +2.58%: Bearish Momentum – Negative Sentiment
Bottom 2:
PAVE -0.78%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBB -1.68%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SPY Engulfing Bearish: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Persist in QHI 20–40
Dec 8
All conds: mean 1.44% | Predicted declines 31.8%
QHI 20–40: mean 1.36% | Predicted declines 26.5%
Bearish failed—QHI 20–40 amplified gains, but downside tail risk remains.
Dec 8
All conds: mean 1.44% | Predicted declines 31.8%
QHI 20–40: mean 1.36% | Predicted declines 26.5%
Bearish failed—QHI 20–40 amplified gains, but downside tail risk remains.
December 9, 2025 at 12:47 PM
SPY Engulfing Bearish: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Persist in QHI 20–40
Dec 8
All conds: mean 1.44% | Predicted declines 31.8%
QHI 20–40: mean 1.36% | Predicted declines 26.5%
Bearish failed—QHI 20–40 amplified gains, but downside tail risk remains.
Dec 8
All conds: mean 1.44% | Predicted declines 31.8%
QHI 20–40: mean 1.36% | Predicted declines 26.5%
Bearish failed—QHI 20–40 amplified gains, but downside tail risk remains.