Pip Moss
@quincel.bsky.social
Betting on politics since 2010, trying to separate what I want to happen from what I think will happen.
I wasn't entirely without logic. It is true that the Dem voter coalition has become more high turnout and less persuasion-based in special elections over time, so bigger swings might be in their reach now. And the Emerson poll plus recent wins is a hella good environment for them.
December 3, 2025 at 9:16 PM
I wasn't entirely without logic. It is true that the Dem voter coalition has become more high turnout and less persuasion-based in special elections over time, so bigger swings might be in their reach now. And the Emerson poll plus recent wins is a hella good environment for them.
In hindsight I think this was a bad bet, not just a losing bet. The level of difficulty TN-07 was to win, and the fact the candidate wasn't the kind of strong crossover appeal/moderate who have made the biggest wins in the past, should have been more significant to me.
December 3, 2025 at 9:14 PM
In hindsight I think this was a bad bet, not just a losing bet. The level of difficulty TN-07 was to win, and the fact the candidate wasn't the kind of strong crossover appeal/moderate who have made the biggest wins in the past, should have been more significant to me.
Depends on how many pawns are left. Presumably she knows how to deploy Keir Starmer as her Knight.
Thank you very much, I'm here all week.
Thank you very much, I'm here all week.
December 2, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Depends on how many pawns are left. Presumably she knows how to deploy Keir Starmer as her Knight.
Thank you very much, I'm here all week.
Thank you very much, I'm here all week.
Maybe as soon as she beat him he began plotting to boost her political profile so he could eventually have his revenge on a bigger stage. Looking 14 moves ahead...
December 2, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Maybe as soon as she beat him he began plotting to boost her political profile so he could eventually have his revenge on a bigger stage. Looking 14 moves ahead...
I kinda think he should just go for Holborn and if he loses but 20 Green MPs are elected that's pretty good going. And if he loses and 2 Green MPs are elected then it didn't matter where he ran.
December 2, 2025 at 6:00 PM
I kinda think he should just go for Holborn and if he loses but 20 Green MPs are elected that's pretty good going. And if he loses and 2 Green MPs are elected then it didn't matter where he ran.
How can you have more overcrowding but not more people?
December 2, 2025 at 9:23 AM
How can you have more overcrowding but not more people?
On the other hand. There have been some cases of swings big enough to flip the TN-07 happening but not being enough in even redder districts, however.
December 1, 2025 at 9:10 PM
On the other hand. There have been some cases of swings big enough to flip the TN-07 happening but not being enough in even redder districts, however.
No I'm using Polymarket (with thin volume) as a proxy for the markets here.
November 30, 2025 at 9:51 AM
No I'm using Polymarket (with thin volume) as a proxy for the markets here.
Not next weekend. That's when they are hosting their pissup in a brewery.
November 29, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Not next weekend. That's when they are hosting their pissup in a brewery.
Jesus Christ is asking you to open your heart to him.
I am not asking.
I am not asking.
November 29, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Jesus Christ is asking you to open your heart to him.
I am not asking.
I am not asking.
I do remember these being awful 20 years ago. Though my guess is if this tax creates a much larger customer base there might be some better competition and terms offered.
November 27, 2025 at 10:28 AM
I do remember these being awful 20 years ago. Though my guess is if this tax creates a much larger customer base there might be some better competition and terms offered.
Or equity release/extend mortgage. That's exactly what they were designed for.
November 27, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Or equity release/extend mortgage. That's exactly what they were designed for.
That would be a big motive for people to form a massive backlash to it, rather than switch cars.
November 26, 2025 at 11:28 PM
That would be a big motive for people to form a massive backlash to it, rather than switch cars.
Partnership income not taxed more is another pretty big one (especially in some industries) which never materialised.
November 26, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Partnership income not taxed more is another pretty big one (especially in some industries) which never materialised.
You might say the replacements are all weak and can't be chosen, but parties don't tend to think that way.
November 26, 2025 at 1:46 PM
You might say the replacements are all weak and can't be chosen, but parties don't tend to think that way.
Must admit I've never understood this argument. Has a PM ever held on for months or more in an impossible position *because there is no replacement*? Seems to me that if the party is sufficiently done with someone there are always a handful of people with backers ready to offer themselves.
November 26, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Must admit I've never understood this argument. Has a PM ever held on for months or more in an impossible position *because there is no replacement*? Seems to me that if the party is sufficiently done with someone there are always a handful of people with backers ready to offer themselves.
For all we know it's the only thing stopping his Great Great Great Great Great Great Grandson from seizing power and invading.
November 26, 2025 at 1:43 PM
For all we know it's the only thing stopping his Great Great Great Great Great Great Grandson from seizing power and invading.
Given the cost of child poverty, in direct terms and indirect loss of economic opportunity/growth, it might even pay for itself over time (though I don't know how we'd ever know for sure given how multi-faceted growth and opportunity are).
November 26, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Given the cost of child poverty, in direct terms and indirect loss of economic opportunity/growth, it might even pay for itself over time (though I don't know how we'd ever know for sure given how multi-faceted growth and opportunity are).
Yes, even as someone who benefits quite a lot from salary sacrifice it's never really made sense to me why I get income tax off for putting money into pension but income tax AND NICs if my employer lets me do it by a certain administrative system and not a different one.
November 26, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Yes, even as someone who benefits quite a lot from salary sacrifice it's never really made sense to me why I get income tax off for putting money into pension but income tax AND NICs if my employer lets me do it by a certain administrative system and not a different one.
OBR doc says it will only apply to NICs, not income tax relief, so possible higher amounts of sacrifice will remain (esp at £100k cliffedge) and impact is modest. Need to see small print, and if it changes between now and 2029.
November 26, 2025 at 1:23 PM
OBR doc says it will only apply to NICs, not income tax relief, so possible higher amounts of sacrifice will remain (esp at £100k cliffedge) and impact is modest. Need to see small print, and if it changes between now and 2029.