When will we denominate Crypto in Gold?
December 1, 2025 at 12:48 AM
When will we denominate Crypto in Gold?
I see no cap, so I'll guess:
November 30, 2025 at 12:37 AM
I see no cap, so I'll guess:
Emmitt Smith's 1991 SL300
November 30, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Emmitt Smith's 1991 SL300
Weak. You're only gonna get ~4 more possessions. And you haven't scored a TD yet.
November 29, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Weak. You're only gonna get ~4 more possessions. And you haven't scored a TD yet.
Wasting a precious possession.
November 29, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Wasting a precious possession.
Despite the rise of "analytics," NFL teams continue to be too passive on 4th downs.
E.g., TB at LAR on Nov. 23. TB has an ~80% chance of converting, yet punts from their own 17.
With 2:26 left in the 3rd quarter, TB will likely get just three more possessions. Are they quitting? Incompetent? Both?
E.g., TB at LAR on Nov. 23. TB has an ~80% chance of converting, yet punts from their own 17.
With 2:26 left in the 3rd quarter, TB will likely get just three more possessions. Are they quitting? Incompetent? Both?
November 29, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Despite the rise of "analytics," NFL teams continue to be too passive on 4th downs.
E.g., TB at LAR on Nov. 23. TB has an ~80% chance of converting, yet punts from their own 17.
With 2:26 left in the 3rd quarter, TB will likely get just three more possessions. Are they quitting? Incompetent? Both?
E.g., TB at LAR on Nov. 23. TB has an ~80% chance of converting, yet punts from their own 17.
With 2:26 left in the 3rd quarter, TB will likely get just three more possessions. Are they quitting? Incompetent? Both?
Q: The most underrated LAD pitcher in the 2025 regular season?
A: Jack Dreyer!
Also, their two ostensible "closers" were ranked 25th & 27th--on their own team.
A: Jack Dreyer!
Also, their two ostensible "closers" were ranked 25th & 27th--on their own team.
November 29, 2025 at 12:06 AM
Q: The most underrated LAD pitcher in the 2025 regular season?
A: Jack Dreyer!
Also, their two ostensible "closers" were ranked 25th & 27th--on their own team.
A: Jack Dreyer!
Also, their two ostensible "closers" were ranked 25th & 27th--on their own team.
I'm amazed BAL scored 14, given four lost fumbles, three punts, and one interception.
November 28, 2025 at 5:33 PM
I'm amazed BAL scored 14, given four lost fumbles, three punts, and one interception.
This final score flatters the Chiefs. KC won't win many games punting five times.
November 28, 2025 at 1:50 AM
This final score flatters the Chiefs. KC won't win many games punting five times.
Who was the NYY's most undervalued pitcher in the 2025 regular season?
Carlos Rodón! Outside the top three starters, Yankee pitching was weak.
11th in MLB (FIP = 3.99), and 13th in Def. By far the best OPS, though. Bombs away!
Carlos Rodón! Outside the top three starters, Yankee pitching was weak.
11th in MLB (FIP = 3.99), and 13th in Def. By far the best OPS, though. Bombs away!
November 27, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Who was the NYY's most undervalued pitcher in the 2025 regular season?
Carlos Rodón! Outside the top three starters, Yankee pitching was weak.
11th in MLB (FIP = 3.99), and 13th in Def. By far the best OPS, though. Bombs away!
Carlos Rodón! Outside the top three starters, Yankee pitching was weak.
11th in MLB (FIP = 3.99), and 13th in Def. By far the best OPS, though. Bombs away!
PS, my method accounts for BABIP. Webb had incredibly bad luck compared to other guys with 180+ IP. Sonny Gray and Jesús Luzardo did too, but not as extreme.
November 27, 2025 at 4:20 AM
PS, my method accounts for BABIP. Webb had incredibly bad luck compared to other guys with 180+ IP. Sonny Gray and Jesús Luzardo did too, but not as extreme.
If you have a version excluding the playoffs, I'd love to see that too! 😀
Here's my Top 30 spWAR for the 2025 regular season. It intentionally boosts IP to correct for mid-FIP SPs (e.g., Bassitt) being undervalued by fWAR.
However, it also puts Webb first in MLB, which not many analysts do.
Here's my Top 30 spWAR for the 2025 regular season. It intentionally boosts IP to correct for mid-FIP SPs (e.g., Bassitt) being undervalued by fWAR.
However, it also puts Webb first in MLB, which not many analysts do.
November 27, 2025 at 4:02 AM
If you have a version excluding the playoffs, I'd love to see that too! 😀
Here's my Top 30 spWAR for the 2025 regular season. It intentionally boosts IP to correct for mid-FIP SPs (e.g., Bassitt) being undervalued by fWAR.
However, it also puts Webb first in MLB, which not many analysts do.
Here's my Top 30 spWAR for the 2025 regular season. It intentionally boosts IP to correct for mid-FIP SPs (e.g., Bassitt) being undervalued by fWAR.
However, it also puts Webb first in MLB, which not many analysts do.
TOR now has the 13th- and 17th-best SPs in MLB.
November 27, 2025 at 12:01 AM
TOR now has the 13th- and 17th-best SPs in MLB.
Based on (IP/9) x (-FIP/10), TOR's most underrated SP for 2025 was...Dylan Cease!
November 26, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Based on (IP/9) x (-FIP/10), TOR's most underrated SP for 2025 was...Dylan Cease!
Who was the NYM's most underrated pitcher in 2025?
David Peterson! With Clay Holmes a close second.
<spWAR> is simple; it's essentially w(IP/FIP+)
It's like fWAR, but better rewards high-IP guys.
David Peterson! With Clay Holmes a close second.
<spWAR> is simple; it's essentially w(IP/FIP+)
It's like fWAR, but better rewards high-IP guys.
November 26, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Who was the NYM's most underrated pitcher in 2025?
David Peterson! With Clay Holmes a close second.
<spWAR> is simple; it's essentially w(IP/FIP+)
It's like fWAR, but better rewards high-IP guys.
David Peterson! With Clay Holmes a close second.
<spWAR> is simple; it's essentially w(IP/FIP+)
It's like fWAR, but better rewards high-IP guys.
Holy Moly--like twins!
November 26, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Holy Moly--like twins!
Arraez was 68th in OPS
November 26, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Arraez was 68th in OPS
Yep, Utley will get a +
November 26, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Yep, Utley will get a +
The private beaches are ok.
November 26, 2025 at 3:45 AM
The private beaches are ok.
Most underrated RP in 2025? Spencer Bivens, fWAR = 0.4.
Yet 81 IP / 3.70 FIP. A fair WAR would be ~1.7.
53rd lowest HR/9 among *all* pitchers (60 IP min).
Lower BB/9 than Diaz, Luzardo, and Yamamoto.
Yet 81 IP / 3.70 FIP. A fair WAR would be ~1.7.
53rd lowest HR/9 among *all* pitchers (60 IP min).
Lower BB/9 than Diaz, Luzardo, and Yamamoto.
November 25, 2025 at 4:12 AM
Most underrated RP in 2025? Spencer Bivens, fWAR = 0.4.
Yet 81 IP / 3.70 FIP. A fair WAR would be ~1.7.
53rd lowest HR/9 among *all* pitchers (60 IP min).
Lower BB/9 than Diaz, Luzardo, and Yamamoto.
Yet 81 IP / 3.70 FIP. A fair WAR would be ~1.7.
53rd lowest HR/9 among *all* pitchers (60 IP min).
Lower BB/9 than Diaz, Luzardo, and Yamamoto.
Believe it or not, the most valuable SP (by wIP/FIP) in the 2025 MLB regular season was not Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes; it was Logan Webb.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
November 25, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Believe it or not, the most valuable SP (by wIP/FIP) in the 2025 MLB regular season was not Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes; it was Logan Webb.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
Cristopher Sánchez was 2nd. Sonny Gray was 12th.
Only two RPs made the top 50. Cade Smith at 42, and Aroldis Chapman at 48.
HOF is a joke. Barry Bonds posted ~60 WAR pre-juice.
November 25, 2025 at 12:21 AM
HOF is a joke. Barry Bonds posted ~60 WAR pre-juice.
This is serious stuff for guys like Carlos Vargas, especially with no MiLB options left.
By fWAR, he looks like a DFA candidate, but by FIP and IP, he should be >$4.5M AAV!
By fWAR, he looks like a DFA candidate, but by FIP and IP, he should be >$4.5M AAV!
November 24, 2025 at 9:11 PM
This is serious stuff for guys like Carlos Vargas, especially with no MiLB options left.
By fWAR, he looks like a DFA candidate, but by FIP and IP, he should be >$4.5M AAV!
By fWAR, he looks like a DFA candidate, but by FIP and IP, he should be >$4.5M AAV!