So yeah, even though HC-CMB is now PJ-WIW, assigned hexcode 485FF4; it still seems to be sending VHF Data Link packets under its old identity as E8405F.

Armed with this knowledge, I now check again my local instance of tar1090, to see whether 485FF4 has passed within range of my ADS-B receiver.

And what do you know... there is 485FF4 as WIA807, the times it passed by me coinciding with the hits I saw for E8405F on VDL2.

However, at re-registration time, it has now been assigned the hexcode 485FF4, not E8405F which is what I saw.

here, I see that HC-CMB was transferred a couple of times and is now serving Winair under registration PJ-WIW. (!)

So I go to check out what PJ-WIW is up to, and see that Winair has it running the Willemstad (#CUR) to Sint Maarten (#SXM) route.

That ATR-42-500 was registered to Ecuadorian airline TAME under the registration HC-CMB. Upon further inspection. I learned that TAME had gone belly up some time ago. So the next stop was planespotters.net to see if I can get some insight on where this airframe had gone.

check my local instance of tar1090, but I have no records of E8405F being seen by my ADS-B receiver. No Mode-S, no nothing. I do notice that the aircraft database pairs that hexcode up with an ATR-42-500.

At this point my curiosity is even more piqued.

Was this a one-off? Will we see Venezuelan airlines retake more efficient routes through the Caribbean in the near future? Who the heck knows, but it'll be interesting to watch.

A couple hours later they returned from Havana to Valencia, Venezuela through the same route, and we confirmed that indeed they were flying a NEGON to ARMUR leg through the San Juan FIR.

Why?

Well, if they entered the Santo Domingo FIR at NEGON, it means they were earlier cleared through the San Juan FIR.

While the flight from Valencia, Venezuela to Havana was commonplace, this route most certainly was not.

Dry cargo resupply ship USNS Robert E. Peary (T-AKE-5) had been resupplying the US fleet out Ponce for months. USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) herself had just left Ponce on December 18, 2025.

Nikini brand water bottles were likely ubiquitous on US warships in the Caribbean purely as a function of logistics.

I agree with the assessment that Maduro was transited through BQN after being taken, but I don't believe the water bottle is the "smoking gun" it's made out to be.

As reported elsewhere, we infer that this pair of MV-22B Ospreys were carrying the US casualties from Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela, for evacuation to Brooke Army Medical Center.