Thank you!!

Read the full report here! www.orfonline.org/research/the...

3) shift toward cultural confrontationalism: The "New Right" in the US will prioritise ideological alignment & views European liberalism as a threat to American values. This could fundamentally redefine the relationship from one of alliance management to one of civilizational competition.

2) The Europeanisation of NATO: Europe will (and should) continue to pursue the only rational course for itself, which is using increased defence spending to build domestic capabilities that reduce reliance on American systems. This is in Europe’s vital interest regardless of America's reliability.

1) Trade wars and changing alliances: The long-term result of Trump’s economic warfare (especially toward Europe) will be the emergence of a more multipolar world where middle powers gain, and the US loses, leverage. This reality is still under-appreciated in Washington policymaking circles.

Read the full range of expert views on the links above, including @susmonika.bsky.social @kjmcinnis1.bsky.social @tobiasbunde.bsky.social @annwieanna.bsky.social @sophiabesch.bsky.social @rachelrizzo.bsky.social @jteurope.bsky.social @erikbrattberg.bsky.social

Thanks Tony!

Especially in terms of its relationship with the European Union, its role in the Quad, economic connectivity projects like IMEC, security and defense policy, and more. As always, I leave with new insights and can’t wait to return—hopefully sooner rather than later.

Donald Trump isn’t only an American phenomenon at this point! Most European countries are dealing with their own version of this at this point.

So in that sense, I’m hopeful that if we can get over this time of turbulence, and Europe (the EU specifically!) is able to emerge as a much more capable security and defense player, then this will ultimately be good for the Transatlantic partnership in the long-term.

Those of us who believe in Transatlanticism are horrified at what we’re seeing. But at the same time, many of us also think the changes happening in European defense should’ve started happening this seriously a long time ago.

Speaking for myself, I wrote this because I believe in NATO and transatlantic relationship, not because I want a US-European divorce. But in order for the relationship to be healthy it needs to be more equal. And for it to be more equal requires Europe to become self-sufficient.

But the ideas in the piece still stand: the EU stepping up to play a greater role in procuring and mobilizing European defense resources. And Europe preparing for an eventual decrease in U.S. force presence on the continent. Maybe even a European SACEUR at some point.