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Sergey Radchenko

@radchenko.bsky.social

12K followers 410 following 480 posts

Historian of the Cold War and after. Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor, Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. The author of “To Run the World.”

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · May 4

I will soon be starting a new academic project: a history of the war between Russia and Ukraine. I am to have the book published by 2032 (10th anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion).

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 3d

This is just gold.

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 3d

Honored to interview President Yushchenko for my forthcoming book on the Russia-Ukraine war. It's important to understand the historical context of the Russian invasion. If we start in 2022, we risk missing out on the essential.

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 3d

Holy smoke. This is something else: www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o.... If you read anything today, read this. Just ordered the book.

‘I’m leaving,’ Trump said. ‘There’s no reason to be here any more’: inside the meeting that brought Nato to the brink

Former secretary general Jens Stoltenberg recalls the rollercoaster ride of dealing with Donald Trump – and how close the US president brought the alliance to the point of collapse

www.theguardian.com

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 6d

The collection of interviews will eventually be made available to historians (subject to permissions), though not in any foreseeable future. For now, the wounds are too fresh. But this work must be done, and it is being done.

Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 6d

Together with my brilliant RA Peter Sies (SAIS-2024) (R) had a very candid, interesting meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz (C). This is all part of my big project on the history of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which will eventually lead to a very big book.

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 9d

And, as a bonus, here is the final paragraph that didn't make it into the oped for reasons of length.

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 9d

I argue, too, that Europe should now step into the shoes vacated by the United States, which means learning to talk to the Russians through back-channels. This is important to avoid miscalculation and inadvertent escalation. During the Cold War, the U.S. did it all the time.

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 9d

I have a new piece with The Guardian where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond | Sergey Radchenko

Despite the cost of shooting down fighter jets and drones, small skirmishes remind both sides of the dangers of escalation, says academic Sergey Radchenko

www.theguardian.com

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 10d

Karaganov on Ukraine. A crazy document from August 1991. Speaking of the long roots of the current conflict. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

Karaganov on Ukraine.

A long-standing obsession.

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Sergey Radchenko

The Moscow Times @themoscowtimes.com · 12d

#OpEd It is increasingly obvious that Europe, Ukraine, and Russia will be the main losers of this war. Trump's America is willing to let that happen, warns Sergey Radchenko.

The Real Losers of Russia’s War: Ukraine, Europe and Russia Itself - The Moscow Times

Opinion | United States President Donald Trump has a remarkable ability to be appear differently to different people.

www.themoscowtimes.com

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Reposted by Sergey Radchenko

Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 15d

On Substack, @radchenko.bsky.social recaps yesterday's UNSC debate, noting how Russian Deputy Rep Dmitry Polyansky trolled creatively by quoting JD Vance. Radchenko gives high marks to Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski's WWI allusions and no-nonsense threat to fire on future fighters.

You have been warned.

Take-aways from the latest UNSC session.

open.substack.com

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 15d

"You have been warned." Take-aways form the latest UNSC session. open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I really had fun writing this. Enjoy! [Free access].

You have been warned.

Take-aways from the latest UNSC session.

open.substack.com

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 18d

What has the European response been so far?
1) Blah blah blah
2) Blah blah blah blah
3) Blah blah blah blah blah
4) Blah blah blah blah blah blah

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 18d

hat's the purpose here?
1) Show that NATO is a paper tiger and that Art. 5 is not operational.
2) Humiliate Estonia et al.
Of course, they don't actually want war. But they think their brinksmanship has political dividends (and it does).

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 18d

The correct response to Russian fighters overflying NATO territory is *obviously* to shoot them down. The reason why this is important is good old credibility. You don't do it now, you signal to the other side that you are afraid; therefore, they will do it again and again.

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 18d

19th time lucky. open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I go over the 19th EU sanctions package to see if it's the real game changer we all hope it is (spoiler: it isn't).

19th time lucky.

Proposed EU sanctions and the limits of European policy.

open.substack.com

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 19d

When you slide into fascism, is there a sign at the bottom that says: "Welcome to FASCISM. You have arrived"? Asking for a friend.

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Reposted by Sergey Radchenko

Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies @johnshopkinssais.bsky.social · 21d

👤 @radchenko.bsky.social on China’s financial backing of Russia:

“These reports suggest a new level of assertiveness on the part of the Chinese, an almost brazen willingness to deal with major Russian state entities despite sanctions risks.”

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

China and Russia sign more deals, but Beijing keeps the upper hand

Russia and China deepened their “no limits” friendship, but Vladimir Putin didn’t get everything he wanted, underscoring his junior status in the partnership.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Reposted by Sergey Radchenko

Veronica Anghel @vanghel.bsky.social · 21d

Russia is escalating exactly as predicted; we are still reacting. The EU needs a Russia strategy. Much more to do, but here’s a start.
⬇️ w/ @radchenko.bsky.social

Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 22d

“If Europe wants to help shape Russia, it must start now,” argue Veronica Anghel and Sergey Radchenko. “Otherwise, Russian drones over Poland and Romania may be a harbinger of a far more troubling future to come.”

Europe’s Delayed Reckoning With Russia

A plan to beat the Kremlin on its own terms.

fam.ag

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 22d

3) And of course it's just not doing enough to support Ukraine.
- Confiscate the frozen Russian assets.
- Provide more and better weapons.

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 22d

2) Europe is not doing what it should be doing:
- Using its economic leverage to negotiate with the Russians.
- Induce capital flight and brain drain from Russia.
- Do what the U.S. does in relation to Russia's neighbors: empower them against Russia.

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 22d

Veronica Anghel and yours truly have a piece in Foreign Affairs on Europe's harebrained policy towards Russia. foreignaffairs.com/russia/europ.... Some key points:
1) Europe does not have a Russian strategy. In fact, it seems Europe cannot even think strategically.

Europe’s Delayed Reckoning With Russia

A plan to beat the Kremlin on its own terms.

foreignaffairs.com

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 22d

That should be fun!

IWM Vienna @iwm.at · 22d

At this year's Vienna Humanities Festival, Cold War historian @radchenko.bsky.social and IWM Rector @mishaglenny.bsky.social discuss the Soviet collapse, Russia & Ukraine, and what history reveals about Putin’s worldview.

👉 Join the conversation: www.humanitiesfestival.at/radchenko

#VHF25

Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 25d

A great piece by my Kissinger Center colleague Frank Gavin. Hugely important. People misuse history, and all your favorite analogies are flawed. Thinking historically, Gavin argues, is not about dusting off old answers, but about asking the right kinds of questions. www.noemamag.com/the-lost-art....

The Lost Art Of Thinking Historically | NOEMA

To understand the world today, we must see it as actors of the past did: through a foggy windshield, not a rearview mirror, facing a future of radical uncertainty.

www.noemamag.com

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Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · 25d

Merkel's Freedom: reflections of a sympathetic reader. Here I go over Merkel's memoir, finding a lot of revealing bits and pieces on Russia, Ukraine, the Bucharest Summit, the Minsk Agreements, etc. A must read despite being something less than a page-turner. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

Merkel's Freedom: reflections of a sympathetic reader

Germany is truly blessed with boring leaders.

open.substack.com

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