@rajkaz.bsky.social
The FOMC cut the policy rate by 25 bp today, as universally expected, while the policy outlook changed to only two cuts in 2025, a longer more gradual normalization cycle and a slightly higher terminal rate being reached sometime in 2027.
December 19, 2024 at 2:17 AM
The FOMC cut the policy rate by 25 bp today, as universally expected, while the policy outlook changed to only two cuts in 2025, a longer more gradual normalization cycle and a slightly higher terminal rate being reached sometime in 2027.
#DXY: had mentioned earlier the importance of the 107.15- 107.24 zone. That’s held well; found support at 106.71; with the FOMC ahead, DXY still looks bullish. A break of 107.15-107.24 opens up targets of 107.50 & 108.02; a failure will get supported at 106.71 - 106.50 & 106.27; buy on dips
December 18, 2024 at 3:00 AM
#DXY: had mentioned earlier the importance of the 107.15- 107.24 zone. That’s held well; found support at 106.71; with the FOMC ahead, DXY still looks bullish. A break of 107.15-107.24 opens up targets of 107.50 & 108.02; a failure will get supported at 106.71 - 106.50 & 106.27; buy on dips
#US10Y: finding resistance at 4.42 and sort of lost momentum around 4.42; it’s been close to a 30 bps move since last week; FOMC tonight. The language is key; A ‘ Hawkish cut’ is what everyone expects. Let’s see. Key resistances are 4.42 and 4.48; supports are 4.36 and 4.30; buy on dips
December 18, 2024 at 2:57 AM
#US10Y: finding resistance at 4.42 and sort of lost momentum around 4.42; it’s been close to a 30 bps move since last week; FOMC tonight. The language is key; A ‘ Hawkish cut’ is what everyone expects. Let’s see. Key resistances are 4.42 and 4.48; supports are 4.36 and 4.30; buy on dips
We head into a flurry of central bank activity with the Fed tonight and the Fed late tonight and then the BoJ and BoE tom. The Fed cut looks a done deal. We also have eurozone and UK CPI today.
December 18, 2024 at 2:40 AM
We head into a flurry of central bank activity with the Fed tonight and the Fed late tonight and then the BoJ and BoE tom. The Fed cut looks a done deal. We also have eurozone and UK CPI today.
#Banknifty #futures: A super day for BN with a 1200 point range; found support at around 52400 below which the current buy on dips structure would have changed;
December 15, 2024 at 3:35 PM
#Banknifty #futures: A super day for BN with a 1200 point range; found support at around 52400 below which the current buy on dips structure would have changed;
#NIFTY: Won’t pretend to know why the fall and the recovery or that I bothered to find out; anyways, a super day; found support at 24172 and buy on dips worked beautifully; resistances now at 24855 & 25997; supports at 24683-24597- 24516; buy on dips;
December 15, 2024 at 3:30 PM
#NIFTY: Won’t pretend to know why the fall and the recovery or that I bothered to find out; anyways, a super day; found support at 24172 and buy on dips worked beautifully; resistances now at 24855 & 25997; supports at 24683-24597- 24516; buy on dips;
#USDINR: Had mentioned on 11th Nov that the target in this move was 85.10 And that I thought this would take time; i could be wrong on the last part; resistances now at 84.92 & 85.00; support at 84.70; interesting week ahead.
December 15, 2024 at 3:29 PM
#USDINR: Had mentioned on 11th Nov that the target in this move was 85.10 And that I thought this would take time; i could be wrong on the last part; resistances now at 84.92 & 85.00; support at 84.70; interesting week ahead.
#USDJPY: Structure now firmly buy on dips after 152.50 broke and the target of 153.62 also done; above 153.62, next target is 154.74; support below 153.62 at 152.00; big week for Yen with the BoJ interest rate decision and some data; eyes on Yuan too;
December 15, 2024 at 3:27 PM
#USDJPY: Structure now firmly buy on dips after 152.50 broke and the target of 153.62 also done; above 153.62, next target is 154.74; support below 153.62 at 152.00; big week for Yen with the BoJ interest rate decision and some data; eyes on Yuan too;
#GBPUSD: finally gives up on trying to break above 1.2770 and the rejection was quite sharp; below 1.2600 and 1.2588, the pair becomes a sell on rise with good downside; we have the BoE this week with consensus tilting towards a pause. Also we have CPI and PMI prints.
December 15, 2024 at 3:26 PM
#GBPUSD: finally gives up on trying to break above 1.2770 and the rejection was quite sharp; below 1.2600 and 1.2588, the pair becomes a sell on rise with good downside; we have the BoE this week with consensus tilting towards a pause. Also we have CPI and PMI prints.
#EURUSD: finding support finally at the inflection point to still remain a buy on dips- just about; resistance at 1.0535 and support 1.0483 and 1.0435; busy week ahead in terms of data- the PMI nos and ZEW Eco sentiment and ECB prez lagarde speaking.
December 15, 2024 at 3:24 PM
#EURUSD: finding support finally at the inflection point to still remain a buy on dips- just about; resistance at 1.0535 and support 1.0483 and 1.0435; busy week ahead in terms of data- the PMI nos and ZEW Eco sentiment and ECB prez lagarde speaking.
#DXY: not able to break through the resistance zone at (107.15-107.24) yet; a break here opens up targets of 107.50 & 108.02- recent high; support at 106.71; it’s been a decent comeback for the USD ahead of an event filled week; buy on dips
December 15, 2024 at 3:23 PM
#DXY: not able to break through the resistance zone at (107.15-107.24) yet; a break here opens up targets of 107.50 & 108.02- recent high; support at 106.71; it’s been a decent comeback for the USD ahead of an event filled week; buy on dips
#US10Y: The break above 4.30 opens up decent targets; a decent move of 24 bps ahead of the FOMC, PMI and PCE nos; resistances now at 4.42 & 4.48; supports at 4.36 & 4.30; with the Fed rate decision ahead on Wednesday, very tricky phase. Structure is now buy on dips
December 15, 2024 at 3:22 PM
#US10Y: The break above 4.30 opens up decent targets; a decent move of 24 bps ahead of the FOMC, PMI and PCE nos; resistances now at 4.42 & 4.48; supports at 4.36 & 4.30; with the Fed rate decision ahead on Wednesday, very tricky phase. Structure is now buy on dips
A pretty busy week ahead- with 3 Central bank rate decisions & accompanying statements- The Fed, BoJ and the BoE. The week starts off with PMI prints from across the world- India, US, Eurozone and UK. Lots of sentiment indicators like the ZEW and the Michigan consumer sentiment.
December 15, 2024 at 3:21 PM
A pretty busy week ahead- with 3 Central bank rate decisions & accompanying statements- The Fed, BoJ and the BoE. The week starts off with PMI prints from across the world- India, US, Eurozone and UK. Lots of sentiment indicators like the ZEW and the Michigan consumer sentiment.
Key Events this week:
EUR: ECB Prez Lagarde speaks
EUR: Services & Manfg PMI ( Dec)
GBP: Services & Composite PMI ( Dec)
USD: Services & Manufacturing PMI ( Dec)
Tuesday:
GBP: Unemployment Rate ( Oct)
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Dec)
USD: Retail Sales ( Nov)
USD: Industrial production ( Nov)
EUR: ECB Prez Lagarde speaks
EUR: Services & Manfg PMI ( Dec)
GBP: Services & Composite PMI ( Dec)
USD: Services & Manufacturing PMI ( Dec)
Tuesday:
GBP: Unemployment Rate ( Oct)
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Dec)
USD: Retail Sales ( Nov)
USD: Industrial production ( Nov)
December 15, 2024 at 3:01 PM
Key Events this week:
EUR: ECB Prez Lagarde speaks
EUR: Services & Manfg PMI ( Dec)
GBP: Services & Composite PMI ( Dec)
USD: Services & Manufacturing PMI ( Dec)
Tuesday:
GBP: Unemployment Rate ( Oct)
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Dec)
USD: Retail Sales ( Nov)
USD: Industrial production ( Nov)
EUR: ECB Prez Lagarde speaks
EUR: Services & Manfg PMI ( Dec)
GBP: Services & Composite PMI ( Dec)
USD: Services & Manufacturing PMI ( Dec)
Tuesday:
GBP: Unemployment Rate ( Oct)
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Dec)
USD: Retail Sales ( Nov)
USD: Industrial production ( Nov)
Friday:
JPY: national CPI & Core CPI ( Nov)
CNY: PBoC Loan Prime rate
GBP: Retail Sales ( Nov)
USD: PCE Price Index ( Nov)
USD: Michigan Consumer sentiment ( Dec)
JPY: national CPI & Core CPI ( Nov)
CNY: PBoC Loan Prime rate
GBP: Retail Sales ( Nov)
USD: PCE Price Index ( Nov)
USD: Michigan Consumer sentiment ( Dec)
December 15, 2024 at 2:59 PM
Friday:
JPY: national CPI & Core CPI ( Nov)
CNY: PBoC Loan Prime rate
GBP: Retail Sales ( Nov)
USD: PCE Price Index ( Nov)
USD: Michigan Consumer sentiment ( Dec)
JPY: national CPI & Core CPI ( Nov)
CNY: PBoC Loan Prime rate
GBP: Retail Sales ( Nov)
USD: PCE Price Index ( Nov)
USD: Michigan Consumer sentiment ( Dec)
#NIFTY: High at the resistance of 24683 and low was the support at 24697; 4th day of trading in a tight range; a break above 24683 opens up the target of 24855; below 24597, next support at 24516, followed by 24399; structure remains a buy on dips
December 12, 2024 at 3:19 AM
#NIFTY: High at the resistance of 24683 and low was the support at 24697; 4th day of trading in a tight range; a break above 24683 opens up the target of 24855; below 24597, next support at 24516, followed by 24399; structure remains a buy on dips
#USDINR: a small range for the day; pressure on rupee continues unabated. Resistances now at 84.92 and 85.00; support at 84.70; To my mind, we may see some letup in the recent Yuan weakness and may just help the rupee some bit. Structure remains a buy on dips
December 12, 2024 at 3:17 AM
#USDINR: a small range for the day; pressure on rupee continues unabated. Resistances now at 84.92 and 85.00; support at 84.70; To my mind, we may see some letup in the recent Yuan weakness and may just help the rupee some bit. Structure remains a buy on dips
#USDJPY: on the cusp of becoming a buy on dips and a bout of more Yen weakness; a move above 152.50 again should do that; if that happens the target is 153.62; support at 152.00; Yuan weakness seems to have taken a breather for now. No- trade zone for yen. Best to wait for confirmation
December 12, 2024 at 3:15 AM
#USDJPY: on the cusp of becoming a buy on dips and a bout of more Yen weakness; a move above 152.50 again should do that; if that happens the target is 153.62; support at 152.00; Yuan weakness seems to have taken a breather for now. No- trade zone for yen. Best to wait for confirmation
#GBPUSD: the range trading continues. Not able to break above 1.2770 despite several Attempts now; target of 1.2844, if the break happens; support at 1.2673; structure remains a buy on dips; not much by way of UK data this week.
December 12, 2024 at 3:13 AM
#GBPUSD: the range trading continues. Not able to break above 1.2770 despite several Attempts now; target of 1.2844, if the break happens; support at 1.2673; structure remains a buy on dips; not much by way of UK data this week.
#EURUSD: found support at 1.0483 again. We have the ECB rate decision and the presser after that. Likely that the ECB will try to sound hawkish even after the cut, not sure however if that will help the euro. Supports at 1.0483 & 1.0435; resistances at 1.0535 and 1.0600
December 12, 2024 at 3:11 AM
#EURUSD: found support at 1.0483 again. We have the ECB rate decision and the presser after that. Likely that the ECB will try to sound hawkish even after the cut, not sure however if that will help the euro. Supports at 1.0483 & 1.0435; resistances at 1.0535 and 1.0600
#DXY: another attempt to break above 106.71 fails; the sell on rise structure changes only on a sustained break of 107.00 and the (107.15-107.24)zone. Supports at 106.50 and 106.27; the idea that lower liquidity in the 2nd half of dec leads to increased volatility is no longer relevant to my mind
December 12, 2024 at 3:09 AM
#DXY: another attempt to break above 106.71 fails; the sell on rise structure changes only on a sustained break of 107.00 and the (107.15-107.24)zone. Supports at 106.50 and 106.27; the idea that lower liquidity in the 2nd half of dec leads to increased volatility is no longer relevant to my mind
#US10Y: Another leg up after the CPI nos. At the 50 WMA now; as mentioned yesterday, 4.30 is key and 4.36 is the level above which things will get interesting. Otherwise don’t see much action in yields. Supports at 4.24 & 4.16; US PPI nos today. Sell on rise
December 12, 2024 at 3:08 AM
#US10Y: Another leg up after the CPI nos. At the 50 WMA now; as mentioned yesterday, 4.30 is key and 4.36 is the level above which things will get interesting. Otherwise don’t see much action in yields. Supports at 4.24 & 4.16; US PPI nos today. Sell on rise
The US inflation numbers were in line with the consensus forecasts. this is the 4thstraight month of 0.3% core inflation prints.the question is whether the Fed will be comfortable with inflation way above the 2% target or will they continue to target 2% and risk derailing the economic momentum.
December 12, 2024 at 3:06 AM
The US inflation numbers were in line with the consensus forecasts. this is the 4thstraight month of 0.3% core inflation prints.the question is whether the Fed will be comfortable with inflation way above the 2% target or will they continue to target 2% and risk derailing the economic momentum.
#Banknifty #futures: found support at the critical support at 53306; above 53641, the next target is 54248; this zone is full of large gaps; so each resistance breaking opens up larger targets; supports at 53641- 53306 & then 53042; buy on dips
December 11, 2024 at 3:13 AM
#Banknifty #futures: found support at the critical support at 53306; above 53641, the next target is 54248; this zone is full of large gaps; so each resistance breaking opens up larger targets; supports at 53641- 53306 & then 53042; buy on dips