Ralph Scott
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ralphscott.bsky.social
Ralph Scott
@ralphscott.bsky.social
2.3K followers 1.7K following 640 posts
Leverhulme research fellow in politics at Bristol uni. ITV psephologist.

Investigating the effect of education on political attitudes and behaviour, among other things.

ralphscott.co.uk
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ralphscott.bsky.social
Wicker man reaction meme: "Oh God! Oh Jesus Christ!"
January 27, 2026 at 2:10 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Support for unilateral disarmament actually below current VI for Greens at 13% fwiw
YouGov tracker asking "What should happen to Trident at the end of its useful life?" 47% currently support a like-for-like replacement, 24% don't know, 17% a weaker deterrent and only 13% unilateral disarmament
January 20, 2026 at 9:45 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Aurora borealis?
Shot of the amazing aurora visible from my back garden yesterday
January 20, 2026 at 9:40 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Tbf pretty sure this classic inspired the comms approach to partygate
Have you seen my hat ? No . Why are you asking me . I haven't seen it . I haven't seen any hats anywhere . I would not steal a hat . Don't ask me any more questions . OK . Thank you anyway
January 17, 2026 at 10:19 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
That's the kids' bedtime reading sorted
A freshly delivered copy of the British General Election of 2024
January 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
This sounds like an excellent innovation - coding occupations using LLMs during the interview itself: osf.io/preprints/so...
Paper abstract, which reads: We present the results of a new approach to measuring the occupations of re-spondents in surveys using Large Language Models (LLMs). Occupation is a no-toriously difficult variable to measure accurately due to the very large number ofoccupations and the technical ways they are described in standard classifications.These features of occupational classification systems mean that the measurementand classification stages are usually not conducted simultaneously, with coding ofopen responses about job title and tasks implemented in a subsequent stage of ’officecoding’. In our new approach, which we call SOCbot, an LLM integrated in thequestionnaire scripting software is used to code the job title response to the occu-pational classification in real-time during the interview. Where the job title doesnot contain sufficient information to be coded with confidence, the LLM probes forfurther relevant details on job tasks, industry, qualifications, and so on. SOCbotcan also be used in static mode offline on already collected response data. Our res-ults demonstrate that the approach attains rates of coder reliability comparable totrained human coders. We also demonstrate that the approach is feasible in large-scale survey operations and has significant potential to reduce respondent burden,lower costs, and yield more timely and accurate data
January 14, 2026 at 3:41 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Mark from Peep show naan meme but it's Warringtons instead of naan
January 14, 2026 at 1:33 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
IBM bringing the realness: A COMPUTER CAN NEVER BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE THEREFORE A COMPUTER MUST NEVER MAKE A MANAGEMENT DECISION
January 14, 2026 at 9:33 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Notable that the government is pursuing the most unpopular options in terms of addressing the funding crisis in HE (and it also won't be enough):

www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/1wuozg...
From the report: Reducing the number of courses is a popular approach, selected by 28 per cent of Britons - and remains popular across graduates and non-graduates alike. It is clear from focus group conversations that the public don’t want to see a bonfire of nonvocational courses: even niche or unconventional degrees are seen as important, so long as they can provide tangible value to students. However, there is clearly a public appetite for universities to specialise their offer to students, rather than providing such a broad range of courses. Meanwhile, taking in more international students is among the more popular suggestions to increase income: Britons would choose this over redundancies, increased domestic fees or research cuts. However, it is less popular among Reform UK supporters, selected by only 16 per cent compared to 21 per cent among the wider public. As described above, support for international students is contingent on the view that they are remaining and working in the UK after their studies. If the university sector aims to raise income by taking in more international students, this needs to be communicated with a focus on these students’ academic merits and economic contribution, rather than their higher fees. Strikingly only 2 per cent identified cuts to research programmes as the best way for universities to make ends meet, reflecting the broader findings on the positivity with which research is viewed. At the same time there was a lack of awareness exposed by focus groups of how research is funded. Indicating that a wider public debate about how university research is funded, including the role of international students in that could be worthwhile.
October 31, 2025 at 12:35 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
I think YouGov does some stuff for the lols based on what is current trending - for example their polling on what animals people think they could beat in a fight
October 23, 2025 at 8:26 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
The figure showing differences by factors during and following the PhD is also interesting - I would have expected a negative wage premium to have a more significant effect for example
Another figure from the paper. "Certain patterns stand out: the largest increases in medication are observed among students enrolled at institutions with a relatively low share of professors to PhD students (39.3% increase for those with ≤ 0.17 professors per PhD student), as well as those with a lower share of female professors and PhD students (38.7% increase for those with ≤10% female professors, 43.3% for those with ≤38% female PhD students). We also find a positive association between psychiatric medication use and enrollment at institutions with longer average time to graduation." "Perhaps surprisingly, we find no strong indication that variation in post-graduation outcomes across academic fields—such as the likelihood of unemployment, the probability of remaining in academia, average wages, or the research field-specific wage premium of obtaining a PhD—are associated with the magnitude of the increase in psychiatric medication during PhD studies."
October 20, 2025 at 8:20 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
In particular the heterogeneity graphs are very interesting - this one on background characteristics suggests that being male, younger, foreign-born and moving for the PhD all increase the risk of needing psychiatric medication
A figure showing how the outcome varies by background characteristics. "The overall pattern suggests that the effect is widespread: nearly all subgroups—regardless of individual characteristics—experience an increase in psychiatric medication use. However, the magnitude varies somewhat. The relative increase is significantly larger for men than for women (28% vs. 16%, p = 0.011). We also find larger relative increases among foreign-born PhD students compared to those born in Sweden (36% vs. 17%, p = 0.011), among students who begin their PhD studies at a younger age (34% for those younger than 29 years vs. 14% for those 29 years or older, p < 0.001), and among those who relocate to a different region at the start of their PhD studies (39% vs. 20%, p = 0.045). Surprisingly, we find a larger increase in psychiatric medication use among students with PhD employment, compared to those funded through scholarships (27% vs. 16%, p = 0.095), company employment (27% vs. 0%, p = 0.007), or other sources28 (27% vs. 8%, p = 0.006). By contrast, we find no substantial variation in effect sizes by parental education (whether at least one parent holds a PhD), parental history of psychiatric medication use (whether at least one parent used psychiatric medication the year before PhD start)29, or family status at PhD entry (being married or having young children).30 The last part of Fig. 5 examines heterogeneity by cognitive and non-cognitive ability, using scores from Swedish military enlistment records.31 We find some evidence that students with higher leadership ability experience smaller relative increases in psychiatric medication following PhD start (13% for those with the highest leadership ability vs. 39% for those with the lowest, p = 0.031). Stress tolerance and IQ appear to have a weaker association with the increase in psychiatric medication. Directionally, the effect of PhD start is smaller for students with higher stress tolerance and lower IQ."
October 20, 2025 at 8:20 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Wonderful piece by @questingvole.bsky.social - in defense of the joy of university.

The collective enterprise of shared knowledge is exactly why I think academia (for all its troubles) is so valuable.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-...
Undergraduate education, furthermore, is no more than the lovely fizzy head on top of the deep and nourishing pint glass of the accumulated knowledge of generations. That knowledge is stored in universities as it is stored nowhere else, and it continues to be produced there, patiently and as far as the wide world goes almost anonymously, by generations of scholars in communion with each-other. This is a process that has been going on ever since the whole idea of the university arrived in this country, via the Arab world, from its clever Indian inventors. We should support universities. We should cherish the value of what they do and recognise that if we run them down for sport we will not realise what we’ve lost until it’s gone. And, just once in a while, we should give students a break.
October 17, 2025 at 12:35 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Oh to be working during the Islamic golden age

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic...
The Islamic Empire heavily patronized scholars. The money spent on the Translation Movement for some translations is estimated to be equivalent to about twice the annual research budget of the United Kingdom's Medical Research Council.[18] The best scholars and notable translators, such as Hunayn ibn Ishaq, had salaries that are estimated to be the equivalent of professional athletes today.[18] The House of Wisdom was a library established in Abbasid-era Baghdad, Iraq by Caliph al-Mansur[19] in 825 modeled after the academy of Jundishapur.
October 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
I'm familiar with some evidence on voters, eg this very interesting paper that analysed nostalgia in Britain over time using @britishelectionstudy.com data:

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

(older people and those with lower levels of education were more likely to be nostalgic)
This paper uses the British Election Surveys from 1979 to 2019, together with the 2016–2019 CSI Brexit online panel, to explore how nostalgia has changed over time. Our interpretation of the data is that there was a shift in the content of nostalgia from regret about the decline of traditional ways of life and family values toward regret over the rise of inequality and the emergence of social media. At the same time, we find continuity in the kinds of people who are likely to feel nostalgic: they tend to be members of older generations and to be less well educated (which we take as a proxy for being “left behind” culturally and economically). However, we also find that, on the items for which we have comparable time series—on immigration, same-sex relations, ethnic equality, and gender equality—both age and educational level have reducing explanatory power over time. In contrast, for these items, there is a trend toward greater politicization and an increased influence of an English national identity. Political divisions show increasing explanatory power as sociodemographic divisions decline.
September 30, 2025 at 10:20 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Here's the bit I had in mind:
The political activation of ethnocentrism: Enoch Powell and “River of Blood” The dam finally broke when, for the first time, a prominent member of the Conservative Party elite – Shadow Cabinet member Enoch Powell – broke the taboo and articulated in full the identity-based hostility to migration widely shared in the electorate in the infamous “River of Blood” speech in April 1968, in which he used an emotive rhetoric to attack liberal Commonwealth immigration policies: “Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad. We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependants, who are for the most part the material of the future growth of the immigrant-descended population. It is like watching a nation busily engaged in heaping up its own funeral pyre.” Powell was fully aware that such an open and visceral violation of anti-racism social norms would provoke a strong reaction from his colleagues: “I can already hear the chorus of execration...how dare he say such a thing? How dare I stir up trouble and inflame feelings...?” However, he defended his stance by arguing that the growing opposition of white ethnocentric voters to migration as both legitimate and too important to ignore: “The answer is that I do not have the right not to do so....I simply do not have the right to shrug my shoulders and think about something else. What [my constituent] is saying, thousands and hundreds of thousands are saying and thinking...” The chorus of execration Powell anticipated was indeed swift to arrive. Conservative leader Edward Heath repudiated Powell’s position, sacked him from the Shadow Cabinet, and never spoke to him again. This move was overwhelmingly supported by his senior Shadow Cabinet colleagues – four of whom threatened to resign themselves unless Powell was dismissed. Heath cited the “racialist tone” of Powell’s speech as the reason for his sacking which he called “unacceptable from one of the leaders of the Conservative Party” and “liable to exacerbate racial tensions”. The Times, paper of record for the British ruling class, denounced Powell’s speech as “evil”, calling it “the first time that a serious British politician has appealed to racial hatred in this direct way in our post-war history”.
August 20, 2025 at 12:18 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Exemplary skewering of how little internal logic there seems to be on the Trumpian extreme right (plenty more in this eye-opening piece).
He begins telling me about how America’s biggest problem is “decades of mass immigration”. I point out that the US is, you know, a nation of immigrants, to which he responds: “It was originally founded by people of north-west European ancestry.” I note there were people there before them. “There were native Americans, and they lost out,” he replies. “Sucks for them.” This is an odd comment from the spokesperson of a party claiming one of its key beliefs to be that “indigenous people have an inseparable bond with their homeland and are its natural stewards” to make.
August 8, 2025 at 1:10 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
I've been working on something on this and here's a sneak peek of recent trends in Politics job adverts on jobs.ac.uk

Here's a scatterplot and (GAM) trendline showing that the number of advertised politics jobs has pretty much halved since 2021.
A scatterplot and (GAM) trendline showing that the number of advertised politics jobs has more or less halved since 2021
July 16, 2025 at 12:10 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
We look at a broader range of parties, albeit not in the panel due to data limitations. Here we find:

- Geography and PE GCSE students are more likely to support the Conservatives.
- Creative arts students support the Greens, while Music students are less likely to support the radical right.
This figure shows that those who study Geography and Physical Education are more likely to support the Conservatives, while those who take History are more likely to support the Lib Dems. The picture for creative arts is similar again, as those who take Art, Music or Drama are more likely to support the Greens, while those who study Drama GCSE are also more supportive of the Lib Dems, and those who take Music are less likely to support the radical right. Perhaps as a result, studying Art is again negatively associated with support for the Labour party. Finally, studying the humanities is associated with naming any party when prompted: students of History, Geography, Foreign Languages and Religious Studies are more likely to express a vote intention.
July 14, 2025 at 1:13 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Looking next at party of vote, we find:

- History and Drama students become less likely to support the Conservatives.
- While Business Studies makes a student more likely to support the Conservatives.
- Technology students become even less likely to intend to vote Labour than they were beforehand.
This figure looks at the relationship between different GCSE subjects and vote intention. As we saw when looking at the CHES scores above, there are relatively few differences between individuals before they start studying their GCSEs on these dependent variables. Those who go on to study History and Business Studies are more likely to support Labour, and those who go on to study Technology subjects are less likely to support Labour. Looking at the within-person coefficients however, we see more evidence of subject influences on political preferences during the years of GCSE study. Those who study History and Drama become less likely to support the Conservative Party, whilst those who study Business Studies become more likely to support the Conservatives (despite their initial pro-Labour inclination). Meanwhile, those who study a Technology subject become even less likely to intend to vote Labour than they were beforehand.
July 14, 2025 at 1:13 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
When looking at the within-effect of studying certain subjects for GCSE, we find:

- History and Art students become more likely to vote for a more socially-liberal and economically left-wing party.
- Technology and Business Studies encourages greater support for an economically right-wing party.
This is a regression plot showing the between and within coefficients of different subject choices at GCSE. The first set of coefficients on the left – the between-person coefficients – tell us about the average differences between people who take each of the different subjects at the point of selection. There are relatively few differences between subjects before students begin their GCSE-studies; young people who choose to study at least one Technology subject are more likely than their peers to intend to vote for a more socially authoritarian party (according to the GAL-TAN scale), and also for a more economically right-wing party. In addition, those who will Art GCSE are initially more likely to support a party that is left-wing economically. However, more differences are apparent if we look at the within-person variation (on the right), our measure of how subjects change political preferences. Here we see that those who study History GCSE become more likely to intend to vote for a more socially-liberal and economically left-wing party when they study the subject, as do those who study Art GCSE. Meanwhile, studying a Technology subject leads to greater support for socially authoritarian and economically right-wing parties, while Business Studies encourages greater support for an economically right-wing party.
July 14, 2025 at 1:13 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨

"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"

Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

🧵👇
Article abstract, which says: The educational cleavage is restructuring electoral competition in many democracies, yet there has been insufficient attention on how variation in educational content affects this. In order to address this, this article combines English administrative school records with a unique representative panel of adolescents to estimate the within-individual effect of studying different subjects at school on political party preference. This analysis finds that studying arts and humanities subjects leads to greater support for socially liberal parties, whilst studying business and economics increases support for economically right-wing parties. Students who study technical subjects become more likely to support socially conservative and economically right-wing parties. These relationships between particular subjects and party support also persist into adulthood. As such, this article provides new evidence on the importance of subjects taken in secondary school for political socialisation, during the impressionable years of adolescence.
July 14, 2025 at 1:13 PM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Yes they did! But shorter lived than now I think

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
Polling for 2017 to 2019
July 5, 2025 at 7:44 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
I don't think UKIP ever had a lead in national vote intention, eg here's the polling from 2010-2015 which was their peak: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
GB polling averages from 2010 to 2015, from the Wiki page
July 5, 2025 at 7:36 AM
ralphscott.bsky.social
Didn't know Times Higher Ed were in the room but nice to see this write-up for @robfordmancs.bsky.social and my presentations at the CGHE seminar yesterday: www.timeshighereducation.com/news/graduat...
Also speaking at the event, Ralph Scott, a political scientist at the University of Bristol, said his research has shown that higher education represents an “emerging political cleavage” in Britain. Graduates and non-graduates identify more with those from within their group and are more likely to vote for those who match their educational level, he added. “This educational divide will continue to restructure party competition in Britain over the coming years.”
June 4, 2025 at 3:12 PM