Robert Drach
@rbdrach.bsky.social
Asset manager @ Drach Advisors, Assistant Prof @ MMA, writer/researcher @ Drach Market Research. Dad, CFA. Posts are personal and are not advice. MIA → UF → TLH → ME.
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Robert Drach
@rbdrach.bsky.social
· Mar 4
A reversion to late 2019 profit margins and valuations alone would produce a 20% correction. That was the culmination of Trump's successes over his first three years (ie a strong and optimistic market). In other words, a mere sanity check, not panic, could drop the S&P 500 20%.
Can’t believe we live in a world where no one really knows what the tax rate is, and even if you think you've figured it out, the president might change it tomorrow anyway.
April 13, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Can’t believe we live in a world where no one really knows what the tax rate is, and even if you think you've figured it out, the president might change it tomorrow anyway.
Would love to have a clip/gif of Scott Wapner saying "uh oh" just now.
April 10, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Would love to have a clip/gif of Scott Wapner saying "uh oh" just now.
A reversion to late 2019 profit margins and valuations alone would produce a 20% correction. That was the culmination of Trump's successes over his first three years (ie a strong and optimistic market). In other words, a mere sanity check, not panic, could drop the S&P 500 20%.
March 4, 2025 at 1:27 PM
A reversion to late 2019 profit margins and valuations alone would produce a 20% correction. That was the culmination of Trump's successes over his first three years (ie a strong and optimistic market). In other words, a mere sanity check, not panic, could drop the S&P 500 20%.
"Trade War" really has a whole new meaning when the stated goal becomes annexation of your geographic neighbor.
February 2, 2025 at 3:37 PM
"Trade War" really has a whole new meaning when the stated goal becomes annexation of your geographic neighbor.
In the 3 years of Trump's first term (pre-COVID-19), a considerable portion of the market gains were from P/E expansion and growth in profit margins. Both P/E ratios and profit margins are already higher than they were at the end of 2019. Stocks are going to have a tough time repeating 2017-2019.
January 23, 2025 at 1:54 AM
In the 3 years of Trump's first term (pre-COVID-19), a considerable portion of the market gains were from P/E expansion and growth in profit margins. Both P/E ratios and profit margins are already higher than they were at the end of 2019. Stocks are going to have a tough time repeating 2017-2019.
Since I guess we’re all kind of introducing ourselves on here, I’ll summarize most of my recent thinking: “Man, U.S. stocks are really expensive.”
November 27, 2024 at 2:24 PM
Since I guess we’re all kind of introducing ourselves on here, I’ll summarize most of my recent thinking: “Man, U.S. stocks are really expensive.”
