Roger Myerson
@rbmyerson.bsky.social
1.1K followers 49 following 52 posts
Professor at UChicago. Author of Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict (1991).
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rbmyerson.bsky.social
What can deter a supreme leader from violating the Constitution? Fear that a violation would shock his essential supporters from trusting and supporting him. A constitution can fail if a leader who violated its norms can still get support to retain power.
jstor.org/stable/27644...
The Autocrat's Credibility Problem and Foundations of the Constitutional State on JSTOR
Roger B. Myerson, The Autocrat's Credibility Problem and Foundations of the Constitutional State, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 102, No. 1 (Feb., 2008), pp. 125-139
jstor.org
rbmyerson.bsky.social
What would Texans say if the President sent Illinois Guard troops to patrol their town? The Second Amendment affirms that people's right to keep local order by locally accountable forces is necessary to the security of a free state. This right is vital for all of us.
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Live Updates: Top Trump Officials Head to Illinois and Oregon
www.nytimes.com
rbmyerson.bsky.social
Defending democracy is fundamentally different from winning elections when rules of democracy can be taken for granted.
In a must-read article, @jvl.bsky.social observes that "Democrats are negotiating about policy when they should be negotiating about power."
www.thebulwark.com/p/democrats-...
Here’s How Trump Loses the Shutdown
God help us but Gavin Newsom is the only Democrat who understands power.
www.thebulwark.com
rbmyerson.bsky.social
The President's threats to unseat congressional representatives by endorsing primary challengers is a profound change in America. In 1913-1960 Presidents rarely endorsed primary challengers against incumbents in their own party, and half these challengers lost.
See Riker&Bast doi.org/10.1007/978-...
Presidential Action in Congressional Nominations
Commentary. In striking contrast to the progressive centralization of administration, there seems to have been very little centralization of political control. The measurement in chapter 4 (Riker and ...
doi.org
rbmyerson.bsky.social
A new paper revisits results of Thomas Worrall 1990: In the long run, incentive-constrained risk-averse agents tend to be enriched with competitive credit, but impoverished with monopolistic credit. But agents prefer the insurance that a credit monopolist can offer.
home.uchicago.edu/~rmyerson/re...
home.uchicago.edu
rbmyerson.bsky.social
What should Democrats stand for?
Democrats should be the party that does not just march to its Leader’s command, but everywhere supports candidates who focus on their local voters' concerns and who work for practical solutions in a broad coalition.
thehill.com/opinion/camp...
thehill.com
Reposted by Roger Myerson
adamkinzinger.substack.com
The second amendment guarantees the right to a militia to guard against federal tyranny. But if a president can use that force against its own state, against the wishes of that state, then it is no militia at all and a clear violation of the second amendment.
rbmyerson.bsky.social
America's Founders would have been shocked by any suggestion of a President sending troops to cities where local authorities have kept order.
If police had existed in 1791, the 2nd Amendment might have also affirmed people's right to well-regulated local policing.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/24/u...
Democrats Criticize Trump’s Push for National Guard in More Cities
www.nytimes.com
Reposted by Roger Myerson
thebulwark.com
ICYMI
thebulwark.com
"If you want to have a coup against the constitutional order, you want to control the capital city. And if he has control of the policing in the city of Washington...Who's gonna tell him to leave the White House?"

@gtconway.bsky.social joins @jvl.bsky.social:
rbmyerson.bsky.social
Netanyahu's government has vowed to eliminate Hamas but has supported no alternative leadership for the people of Gaza. This basic contradiction has prevented Israel's invasion from achieving any positive political result beyond horrific suffering and destruction.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/w...
‘Arab Forces’ Running Gaza? Netanyahu’s Goal Leaves Many Questions.
www.nytimes.com
rbmyerson.bsky.social
As commenters noted, I tried to show here how the push for redistricting in TX puts Dems in a strategic dilemma. To find a best response, you must first see how the other side can hope to win whichever way you go.

In any case, it is right to stand clearly for democratic accountability in America.
rbmyerson.bsky.social
What is the real end of midterm redistricting? New maps in red & blue states send a message that "both parties manipulate elections, so condemning election interference is hypocrisy," priming people to accept 2026 election interference with all POTUS's power on one side.
thehill.com/homenews/cam...
thehill.com
rbmyerson.bsky.social
But firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because of bad news is the opposite of contributing to economic sciences.
Punishing publicly paid statisticians for finding bad news is bad for science, and in the long run it will be bad for policy-making too.
www.newsweek.com/white-house-...
White House says terrible jobs data 'must be a typo'
The White House believes unusual jobs data revisions prove the recently fired Bureau of Labor chief was manipulating statistics.
www.newsweek.com
rbmyerson.bsky.social
The Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded for contributions to understanding of economics. To make such a contribution, the President could write papers that engage with other economists' ideas and identify the different assumptions that led him to choose policies that others would not recommend.
Reposted by Roger Myerson
jonrauch.bsky.social
"Blackmailing was nearly ubiquitous. Across five different frontier AI models from five different companies, the best behaving AIs chose blackmail 79 percent of the time. The worst behaved blackmailed in 96 percent of cases." I'm sorry, Dave; I can't do that. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/ai-m...
AI Might Let You Die to Save Itself
In recent simulations, leading AI systems blackmailed their human users—or even let them die—to avoid being shut down or replaced.
www.lawfaremedia.org
rbmyerson.bsky.social
A President with a nationwide force for mass arrests would be among the worst fears of America's Founders. They faced such issues in Fugitive Slave Acts, which mandated arrests by local officials & private slave-catchers, with certification under federal courts.
www.thebulwark.com/p/the-worst-...
The Worst ICE Agents Are Coming
Tens of billions of new dollars plus a rush to hire 10,000 new agents equals a disaster in the making.
www.thebulwark.com
rbmyerson.bsky.social
To mark 80 years since the Trinity Test, an outstanding group of scientists, diplomats, and journalists assembled in Chicago for 3 days of intense discussion about the prevention of nuclear war. I was proud to participate and support the group's final declaration.
thebulletin.org/2025/07/the-...
The Nobel Laureate Assembly Declaration for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Tremendous progress has been made in reducing global nuclear stockpiles and nuclear risks, but we are now heading in the wrong direction. Poised at the beginning of a new, complex, and dangerous nucle...
thebulletin.org
rbmyerson.bsky.social
What should Democrats stand for?
Democrats should be the party that does not just march to its Leader’s command, but everywhere supports candidates who focus on their local voters' concerns and who work for practical solutions in a broad coalition.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o...
rbmyerson.bsky.social
Announcing ruinous tariffs brings world leaders as supplicants to the White House, which makes a POTUS feel strong. Why would he want to stop this for some deal that just benefits others? But still some "hope that that these tariffs are a means and not solely an end."
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/12/b...
Tariffs or Deals? Trump Seems Content With Punishing Levies.
www.nytimes.com
Reposted by Roger Myerson
sgehlbach.bsky.social
Are you:

✅ A young scholar in econ, poli sci, or law
✅ Working on institutions, broadly defined
✅ Interested in spending a week in Italy with amazing faculty

If so, please apply to this year’s Coase Institute Workshop! It’s a transformative experience for many, and always fun. I’ll be there.
Ronald Coase Institute: What's New
www.coase.org
rbmyerson.bsky.social
What should Democrats stand for?
Democrats should be the party that does not just march to its leader's command, but everywhere supports candidates who focus on their local voters' concerns, with a commitment to negotiate practical solutions as a broad national coalition.
bsky.app/profile/rbmy...
rbmyerson.bsky.social
The Rural-Urban Bridge Initiative interviewed dozens of Democratic candidates who outperformed expectations in Republican-leaning rural districts.
Key finding: Successful rural candidates prioritize listening and focus on whatever issues local people care about.
ruralurbanbridge.org/our-work/dis...
Report: Can Democrats Succeed in Rural America? — Rural Urban Bridge
RUBI interviewed dozens of moderate and progressive candidates for US House and Senate, gubernatorial, and state senate seats who outperformed expectations in Republican-leaning rural districts. We co...
ruralurbanbridge.org
rbmyerson.bsky.social
You’re right, the correct term here is preventative war.
rbmyerson.bsky.social
In this situation, a well-prepared broadly supported diplomatic initiative to open a path back to peace may be as important as bunker-busting bomb technology. I hope that the Secretary of State is ready for this.
rbmyerson.bsky.social
Pre-emptive war can seem tempting when we believe that a bold strike can be quickly followed by a new peace on more favorable terms. But in the long history of the world, great leaders’ hopes for quick decisive victories have often proved to be terribly ill-founded, as Germans found in 1914.
rbmyerson.bsky.social
Just before the assault on Senator Padilla, Secretary Noem said that she was there with military forces to “liberate” LA from its elected officials of state and local government. Her words would describe an assault on the principles of federalism on which America was founded.
motherjones.com
By now, we've all seen the video of Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) being forcibly removed and handcuffed for asking a question during Kristi Noem's press conference.

But what Noem said just moments before the video was taken is "classic authoritarian red-baiting," points out @davidcorn.bsky.social.
rbmyerson.bsky.social
The Rural-Urban Bridge Initiative interviewed dozens of Democratic candidates who outperformed expectations in Republican-leaning rural districts.
Key finding: Successful rural candidates prioritize listening and focus on whatever issues local people care about.
ruralurbanbridge.org/our-work/dis...
Report: Can Democrats Succeed in Rural America? — Rural Urban Bridge
RUBI interviewed dozens of moderate and progressive candidates for US House and Senate, gubernatorial, and state senate seats who outperformed expectations in Republican-leaning rural districts. We co...
ruralurbanbridge.org