Signum
@realsignum.bsky.social
Pinned
Signum
@realsignum.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Add hoc efforts to automated tsy bond curve analysis. Bond data is sourced from WSJ. Curve is built with open source QuantLib. Underlying yield curve is built with PiecewiseLinearZero methodology.
Nothing from this account constitutes professional and/or financial advice.
Nothing from this account constitutes professional and/or financial advice.
Fed BS Watch (as of 2025-12-24)
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk)
Sec. Held: 20.5/33.3/-276.2
Repo: 0.5/-13.5/0.5
Loans: 1.0/2.1/0.1
RRP: -10.7/-10.9/-244.8
UST GA: -59.9/-98.1/66.5
Rest: -45.7/-48.3/-140.6
Reserve balances: 46.9/82.5/-238.0
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk)
Sec. Held: 20.5/33.3/-276.2
Repo: 0.5/-13.5/0.5
Loans: 1.0/2.1/0.1
RRP: -10.7/-10.9/-244.8
UST GA: -59.9/-98.1/66.5
Rest: -45.7/-48.3/-140.6
Reserve balances: 46.9/82.5/-238.0
December 29, 2025 at 10:19 PM
Fed BS Watch (as of 2025-12-24)
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk)
Sec. Held: 20.5/33.3/-276.2
Repo: 0.5/-13.5/0.5
Loans: 1.0/2.1/0.1
RRP: -10.7/-10.9/-244.8
UST GA: -59.9/-98.1/66.5
Rest: -45.7/-48.3/-140.6
Reserve balances: 46.9/82.5/-238.0
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk)
Sec. Held: 20.5/33.3/-276.2
Repo: 0.5/-13.5/0.5
Loans: 1.0/2.1/0.1
RRP: -10.7/-10.9/-244.8
UST GA: -59.9/-98.1/66.5
Rest: -45.7/-48.3/-140.6
Reserve balances: 46.9/82.5/-238.0
Banks BS Watch (as of 2025-12-17)
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk NSA)
Tsy+Agy Sec: 0/-31/241
C&I Ln: 22/20/-83
RE Ln: -1/24/120
Consumer Ln: 8/39/-68
Deposits: 88/286/730
- Large: 92/246/465
- Small: 13/24/219
- Forgn: -9/3/58
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk NSA)
Tsy+Agy Sec: 0/-31/241
C&I Ln: 22/20/-83
RE Ln: -1/24/120
Consumer Ln: 8/39/-68
Deposits: 88/286/730
- Large: 92/246/465
- Small: 13/24/219
- Forgn: -9/3/58
December 29, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Banks BS Watch (as of 2025-12-17)
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk NSA)
Tsy+Agy Sec: 0/-31/241
C&I Ln: 22/20/-83
RE Ln: -1/24/120
Consumer Ln: 8/39/-68
Deposits: 88/286/730
- Large: 92/246/465
- Small: 13/24/219
- Forgn: -9/3/58
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk NSA)
Tsy+Agy Sec: 0/-31/241
C&I Ln: 22/20/-83
RE Ln: -1/24/120
Consumer Ln: 8/39/-68
Deposits: 88/286/730
- Large: 92/246/465
- Small: 13/24/219
- Forgn: -9/3/58
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-29)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.501%
2Y: 1.358%
5Y: 1.522%
10Y: 1.921%
30Y: 2.698%
5Y5Y: 2.322%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.038%
2Y: 2.098%
5Y: 2.158%
10Y: 2.263%
30Y: 2.325%
5Y5Y: 2.368%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.501%
2Y: 1.358%
5Y: 1.522%
10Y: 1.921%
30Y: 2.698%
5Y5Y: 2.322%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.038%
2Y: 2.098%
5Y: 2.158%
10Y: 2.263%
30Y: 2.325%
5Y5Y: 2.368%
December 29, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-29)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.501%
2Y: 1.358%
5Y: 1.522%
10Y: 1.921%
30Y: 2.698%
5Y5Y: 2.322%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.038%
2Y: 2.098%
5Y: 2.158%
10Y: 2.263%
30Y: 2.325%
5Y5Y: 2.368%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.501%
2Y: 1.358%
5Y: 1.522%
10Y: 1.921%
30Y: 2.698%
5Y5Y: 2.322%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.038%
2Y: 2.098%
5Y: 2.158%
10Y: 2.263%
30Y: 2.325%
5Y5Y: 2.368%
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-29)
0-1Y: 3.539%
1-2Y: 3.374%
2-3Y: 3.62%
3-4Y: 3.811%
4-5Y: 4.054%
5-10Y: 4.69%
10-20Y: 5.802%
20-30Y: 5.032%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.8 bps
0-1Y: 3.539%
1-2Y: 3.374%
2-3Y: 3.62%
3-4Y: 3.811%
4-5Y: 4.054%
5-10Y: 4.69%
10-20Y: 5.802%
20-30Y: 5.032%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.8 bps
December 29, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-29)
0-1Y: 3.539%
1-2Y: 3.374%
2-3Y: 3.62%
3-4Y: 3.811%
4-5Y: 4.054%
5-10Y: 4.69%
10-20Y: 5.802%
20-30Y: 5.032%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.8 bps
0-1Y: 3.539%
1-2Y: 3.374%
2-3Y: 3.62%
3-4Y: 3.811%
4-5Y: 4.054%
5-10Y: 4.69%
10-20Y: 5.802%
20-30Y: 5.032%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.8 bps
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-29)
2Y yield: 3.457%
2/5: 21.2 bps
2/10: 65.4 bps
5/30: 113.2 bps
2-5-10: -23.0 bps
2-10-30: -3.6 bps
3M yield: 3.63%
3M/5Y5Y: 106.0 bps
2Y yield: 3.457%
2/5: 21.2 bps
2/10: 65.4 bps
5/30: 113.2 bps
2-5-10: -23.0 bps
2-10-30: -3.6 bps
3M yield: 3.63%
3M/5Y5Y: 106.0 bps
December 29, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-29)
2Y yield: 3.457%
2/5: 21.2 bps
2/10: 65.4 bps
5/30: 113.2 bps
2-5-10: -23.0 bps
2-10-30: -3.6 bps
3M yield: 3.63%
3M/5Y5Y: 106.0 bps
2Y yield: 3.457%
2/5: 21.2 bps
2/10: 65.4 bps
5/30: 113.2 bps
2-5-10: -23.0 bps
2-10-30: -3.6 bps
3M yield: 3.63%
3M/5Y5Y: 106.0 bps
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-29
U.S. 4.121% / NA
Germany 2.834% / -1.287%
EZ(top4) 3.232% / -0.889%
Japan 2.058% / -2.063%
U.K. 4.489% / 0.368%
China 1.875% / -2.246%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-29
U.S. 4.121% / NA
Germany 2.834% / -1.287%
EZ(top4) 3.232% / -0.889%
Japan 2.058% / -2.063%
U.K. 4.489% / 0.368%
China 1.875% / -2.246%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
December 29, 2025 at 8:00 PM
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-29
U.S. 4.121% / NA
Germany 2.834% / -1.287%
EZ(top4) 3.232% / -0.889%
Japan 2.058% / -2.063%
U.K. 4.489% / 0.368%
China 1.875% / -2.246%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-29
U.S. 4.121% / NA
Germany 2.834% / -1.287%
EZ(top4) 3.232% / -0.889%
Japan 2.058% / -2.063%
U.K. 4.489% / 0.368%
China 1.875% / -2.246%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-26)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.508%
2Y: 1.363%
5Y: 1.528%
10Y: 1.927%
30Y: 2.706%
5Y5Y: 2.326%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.041%
2Y: 2.111%
5Y: 2.172%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.329%
5Y5Y: 2.375%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.508%
2Y: 1.363%
5Y: 1.528%
10Y: 1.927%
30Y: 2.706%
5Y5Y: 2.326%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.041%
2Y: 2.111%
5Y: 2.172%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.329%
5Y5Y: 2.375%
December 26, 2025 at 8:29 PM
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-26)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.508%
2Y: 1.363%
5Y: 1.528%
10Y: 1.927%
30Y: 2.706%
5Y5Y: 2.326%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.041%
2Y: 2.111%
5Y: 2.172%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.329%
5Y5Y: 2.375%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.508%
2Y: 1.363%
5Y: 1.528%
10Y: 1.927%
30Y: 2.706%
5Y5Y: 2.326%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.041%
2Y: 2.111%
5Y: 2.172%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.329%
5Y5Y: 2.375%
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-26)
0-1Y: 3.549%
1-2Y: 3.399%
2-3Y: 3.64%
3-4Y: 3.832%
4-5Y: 4.082%
5-10Y: 4.701%
10-20Y: 5.827%
20-30Y: 5.027%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.4 bps
0-1Y: 3.549%
1-2Y: 3.399%
2-3Y: 3.64%
3-4Y: 3.832%
4-5Y: 4.082%
5-10Y: 4.701%
10-20Y: 5.827%
20-30Y: 5.027%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.4 bps
December 26, 2025 at 8:29 PM
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-26)
0-1Y: 3.549%
1-2Y: 3.399%
2-3Y: 3.64%
3-4Y: 3.832%
4-5Y: 4.082%
5-10Y: 4.701%
10-20Y: 5.827%
20-30Y: 5.027%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.4 bps
0-1Y: 3.549%
1-2Y: 3.399%
2-3Y: 3.64%
3-4Y: 3.832%
4-5Y: 4.082%
5-10Y: 4.701%
10-20Y: 5.827%
20-30Y: 5.027%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.4 bps
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-26)
2Y yield: 3.473%
2/5: 20.9 bps
2/10: 65.5 bps
5/30: 113.5 bps
2-5-10: -23.7 bps
2-10-30: -3.4 bps
3M yield: 3.636%
3M/5Y5Y: 106.5 bps
2Y yield: 3.473%
2/5: 20.9 bps
2/10: 65.5 bps
5/30: 113.5 bps
2-5-10: -23.7 bps
2-10-30: -3.4 bps
3M yield: 3.636%
3M/5Y5Y: 106.5 bps
December 26, 2025 at 8:29 PM
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-26)
2Y yield: 3.473%
2/5: 20.9 bps
2/10: 65.5 bps
5/30: 113.5 bps
2-5-10: -23.7 bps
2-10-30: -3.4 bps
3M yield: 3.636%
3M/5Y5Y: 106.5 bps
2Y yield: 3.473%
2/5: 20.9 bps
2/10: 65.5 bps
5/30: 113.5 bps
2-5-10: -23.7 bps
2-10-30: -3.4 bps
3M yield: 3.636%
3M/5Y5Y: 106.5 bps
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-26
U.S. 4.138% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.273%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.864%
Japan 2.041% / -2.097%
U.K. 4.504% / 0.366%
China 1.855% / -2.283%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-26
U.S. 4.138% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.273%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.864%
Japan 2.041% / -2.097%
U.K. 4.504% / 0.366%
China 1.855% / -2.283%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
December 26, 2025 at 8:00 PM
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-26
U.S. 4.138% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.273%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.864%
Japan 2.041% / -2.097%
U.K. 4.504% / 0.366%
China 1.855% / -2.283%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-26
U.S. 4.138% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.273%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.864%
Japan 2.041% / -2.097%
U.K. 4.504% / 0.366%
China 1.855% / -2.283%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-24)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.504%
2Y: 1.384%
5Y: 1.546%
10Y: 1.923%
30Y: 2.677%
5Y5Y: 2.301%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.027%
2Y: 2.116%
5Y: 2.178%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.321%
5Y5Y: 2.368%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.504%
2Y: 1.384%
5Y: 1.546%
10Y: 1.923%
30Y: 2.677%
5Y5Y: 2.301%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.027%
2Y: 2.116%
5Y: 2.178%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.321%
5Y5Y: 2.368%
December 24, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-24)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.504%
2Y: 1.384%
5Y: 1.546%
10Y: 1.923%
30Y: 2.677%
5Y5Y: 2.301%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.027%
2Y: 2.116%
5Y: 2.178%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.321%
5Y5Y: 2.368%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.504%
2Y: 1.384%
5Y: 1.546%
10Y: 1.923%
30Y: 2.677%
5Y5Y: 2.301%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.027%
2Y: 2.116%
5Y: 2.178%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.321%
5Y5Y: 2.368%
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-24)
0-1Y: 3.531%
1-2Y: 3.469%
2-3Y: 3.661%
3-4Y: 3.851%
4-5Y: 4.107%
5-10Y: 4.669%
10-20Y: 5.788%
20-30Y: 4.965%
2/10 in 1Y: 81.0 bps
0-1Y: 3.531%
1-2Y: 3.469%
2-3Y: 3.661%
3-4Y: 3.851%
4-5Y: 4.107%
5-10Y: 4.669%
10-20Y: 5.788%
20-30Y: 4.965%
2/10 in 1Y: 81.0 bps
December 24, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-24)
0-1Y: 3.531%
1-2Y: 3.469%
2-3Y: 3.661%
3-4Y: 3.851%
4-5Y: 4.107%
5-10Y: 4.669%
10-20Y: 5.788%
20-30Y: 4.965%
2/10 in 1Y: 81.0 bps
0-1Y: 3.531%
1-2Y: 3.469%
2-3Y: 3.661%
3-4Y: 3.851%
4-5Y: 4.107%
5-10Y: 4.669%
10-20Y: 5.788%
20-30Y: 4.965%
2/10 in 1Y: 81.0 bps
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-24)
2Y yield: 3.499%
2/5: 20.7 bps
2/10: 62.9 bps
5/30: 108.8 bps
2-5-10: -21.5 bps
2-10-30: -3.7 bps
3M yield: 3.647%
3M/5Y5Y: 102.2 bps
2Y yield: 3.499%
2/5: 20.7 bps
2/10: 62.9 bps
5/30: 108.8 bps
2-5-10: -21.5 bps
2-10-30: -3.7 bps
3M yield: 3.647%
3M/5Y5Y: 102.2 bps
December 24, 2025 at 8:23 PM
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-24)
2Y yield: 3.499%
2/5: 20.7 bps
2/10: 62.9 bps
5/30: 108.8 bps
2-5-10: -21.5 bps
2-10-30: -3.7 bps
3M yield: 3.647%
3M/5Y5Y: 102.2 bps
2Y yield: 3.499%
2/5: 20.7 bps
2/10: 62.9 bps
5/30: 108.8 bps
2-5-10: -21.5 bps
2-10-30: -3.7 bps
3M yield: 3.647%
3M/5Y5Y: 102.2 bps
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-24
U.S. 4.135% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.27%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.861%
Japan 2.05% / -2.085%
U.K. 4.504% / 0.369%
China 1.852% / -2.283%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-24
U.S. 4.135% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.27%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.861%
Japan 2.05% / -2.085%
U.K. 4.504% / 0.369%
China 1.852% / -2.283%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
December 24, 2025 at 8:00 PM
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-24
U.S. 4.135% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.27%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.861%
Japan 2.05% / -2.085%
U.K. 4.504% / 0.369%
China 1.852% / -2.283%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-24
U.S. 4.135% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.27%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.861%
Japan 2.05% / -2.085%
U.K. 4.504% / 0.369%
China 1.852% / -2.283%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-23)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.506%
2Y: 1.402%
5Y: 1.558%
10Y: 1.957%
30Y: 2.706%
5Y5Y: 2.356%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.036%
2Y: 2.118%
5Y: 2.186%
10Y: 2.276%
30Y: 2.334%
5Y5Y: 2.367%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.506%
2Y: 1.402%
5Y: 1.558%
10Y: 1.957%
30Y: 2.706%
5Y5Y: 2.356%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.036%
2Y: 2.118%
5Y: 2.186%
10Y: 2.276%
30Y: 2.334%
5Y5Y: 2.367%
December 23, 2025 at 8:25 PM
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-23)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.506%
2Y: 1.402%
5Y: 1.558%
10Y: 1.957%
30Y: 2.706%
5Y5Y: 2.356%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.036%
2Y: 2.118%
5Y: 2.186%
10Y: 2.276%
30Y: 2.334%
5Y5Y: 2.367%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.506%
2Y: 1.402%
5Y: 1.558%
10Y: 1.957%
30Y: 2.706%
5Y5Y: 2.356%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.036%
2Y: 2.118%
5Y: 2.186%
10Y: 2.276%
30Y: 2.334%
5Y5Y: 2.367%
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-23)
0-1Y: 3.542%
1-2Y: 3.498%
2-3Y: 3.683%
3-4Y: 3.873%
4-5Y: 4.127%
5-10Y: 4.723%
10-20Y: 5.807%
20-30Y: 5.027%
2/10 in 1Y: 82.7 bps
0-1Y: 3.542%
1-2Y: 3.498%
2-3Y: 3.683%
3-4Y: 3.873%
4-5Y: 4.127%
5-10Y: 4.723%
10-20Y: 5.807%
20-30Y: 5.027%
2/10 in 1Y: 82.7 bps
December 23, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-23)
0-1Y: 3.542%
1-2Y: 3.498%
2-3Y: 3.683%
3-4Y: 3.873%
4-5Y: 4.127%
5-10Y: 4.723%
10-20Y: 5.807%
20-30Y: 5.027%
2/10 in 1Y: 82.7 bps
0-1Y: 3.542%
1-2Y: 3.498%
2-3Y: 3.683%
3-4Y: 3.873%
4-5Y: 4.127%
5-10Y: 4.723%
10-20Y: 5.807%
20-30Y: 5.027%
2/10 in 1Y: 82.7 bps
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-23)
2Y yield: 3.519%
2/5: 20.8 bps
2/10: 64.4 bps
5/30: 110.1 bps
2-5-10: -22.8 bps
2-10-30: -2.1 bps
3M yield: 3.616%
3M/5Y5Y: 110.7 bps
2Y yield: 3.519%
2/5: 20.8 bps
2/10: 64.4 bps
5/30: 110.1 bps
2-5-10: -22.8 bps
2-10-30: -2.1 bps
3M yield: 3.616%
3M/5Y5Y: 110.7 bps
December 23, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-23)
2Y yield: 3.519%
2/5: 20.8 bps
2/10: 64.4 bps
5/30: 110.1 bps
2-5-10: -22.8 bps
2-10-30: -2.1 bps
3M yield: 3.616%
3M/5Y5Y: 110.7 bps
2Y yield: 3.519%
2/5: 20.8 bps
2/10: 64.4 bps
5/30: 110.1 bps
2-5-10: -22.8 bps
2-10-30: -2.1 bps
3M yield: 3.616%
3M/5Y5Y: 110.7 bps
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-23
U.S. 4.173% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.308%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.899%
Japan 2.04% / -2.133%
U.K. 4.513% / 0.34%
China 1.851% / -2.322%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-23
U.S. 4.173% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.308%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.899%
Japan 2.04% / -2.133%
U.K. 4.513% / 0.34%
China 1.851% / -2.322%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
December 23, 2025 at 8:00 PM
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-23
U.S. 4.173% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.308%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.899%
Japan 2.04% / -2.133%
U.K. 4.513% / 0.34%
China 1.851% / -2.322%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-23
U.S. 4.173% / NA
Germany 2.865% / -1.308%
EZ(top4) 3.274% / -0.899%
Japan 2.04% / -2.133%
U.K. 4.513% / 0.34%
China 1.851% / -2.322%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-22)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.495%
2Y: 1.386%
5Y: 1.56%
10Y: 1.969%
30Y: 2.73%
5Y5Y: 2.38%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.033%
2Y: 2.114%
5Y: 2.17%
10Y: 2.268%
30Y: 2.328%
5Y5Y: 2.366%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.495%
2Y: 1.386%
5Y: 1.56%
10Y: 1.969%
30Y: 2.73%
5Y5Y: 2.38%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.033%
2Y: 2.114%
5Y: 2.17%
10Y: 2.268%
30Y: 2.328%
5Y5Y: 2.366%
December 22, 2025 at 8:25 PM
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-22)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.495%
2Y: 1.386%
5Y: 1.56%
10Y: 1.969%
30Y: 2.73%
5Y5Y: 2.38%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.033%
2Y: 2.114%
5Y: 2.17%
10Y: 2.268%
30Y: 2.328%
5Y5Y: 2.366%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.495%
2Y: 1.386%
5Y: 1.56%
10Y: 1.969%
30Y: 2.73%
5Y5Y: 2.38%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.033%
2Y: 2.114%
5Y: 2.17%
10Y: 2.268%
30Y: 2.328%
5Y5Y: 2.366%
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-22)
0-1Y: 3.528%
1-2Y: 3.473%
2-3Y: 3.658%
3-4Y: 3.858%
4-5Y: 4.132%
5-10Y: 4.746%
10-20Y: 5.83%
20-30Y: 5.046%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.1 bps
0-1Y: 3.528%
1-2Y: 3.473%
2-3Y: 3.658%
3-4Y: 3.858%
4-5Y: 4.132%
5-10Y: 4.746%
10-20Y: 5.83%
20-30Y: 5.046%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.1 bps
December 22, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #ForwardCurve report (as of 2025-12-22)
0-1Y: 3.528%
1-2Y: 3.473%
2-3Y: 3.658%
3-4Y: 3.858%
4-5Y: 4.132%
5-10Y: 4.746%
10-20Y: 5.83%
20-30Y: 5.046%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.1 bps
0-1Y: 3.528%
1-2Y: 3.473%
2-3Y: 3.658%
3-4Y: 3.858%
4-5Y: 4.132%
5-10Y: 4.746%
10-20Y: 5.83%
20-30Y: 5.046%
2/10 in 1Y: 86.1 bps
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-22)
2Y yield: 3.5%
2/5: 21.2 bps
2/10: 66.5 bps
5/30: 112.7 bps
2-5-10: -24.1 bps
2-10-30: -0.9 bps
3M yield: 3.62%
3M/5Y5Y: 112.6 bps
2Y yield: 3.5%
2/5: 21.2 bps
2/10: 66.5 bps
5/30: 112.7 bps
2-5-10: -24.1 bps
2-10-30: -0.9 bps
3M yield: 3.62%
3M/5Y5Y: 112.6 bps
December 22, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #YieldCurve report (as of 2025-12-22)
2Y yield: 3.5%
2/5: 21.2 bps
2/10: 66.5 bps
5/30: 112.7 bps
2-5-10: -24.1 bps
2-10-30: -0.9 bps
3M yield: 3.62%
3M/5Y5Y: 112.6 bps
2Y yield: 3.5%
2/5: 21.2 bps
2/10: 66.5 bps
5/30: 112.7 bps
2-5-10: -24.1 bps
2-10-30: -0.9 bps
3M yield: 3.62%
3M/5Y5Y: 112.6 bps
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-22
U.S. 4.174% / NA
Germany 2.9% / -1.274%
EZ(top4) 3.318% / -0.856%
Japan 2.081% / -2.093%
U.K. 4.538% / 0.364%
China 1.859% / -2.315%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-22
U.S. 4.174% / NA
Germany 2.9% / -1.274%
EZ(top4) 3.318% / -0.856%
Japan 2.081% / -2.093%
U.K. 4.538% / 0.364%
China 1.859% / -2.315%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
December 22, 2025 at 8:00 PM
by @realsignum.bsky.social
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-22
U.S. 4.174% / NA
Germany 2.9% / -1.274%
EZ(top4) 3.318% / -0.856%
Japan 2.081% / -2.093%
U.K. 4.538% / 0.364%
China 1.859% / -2.315%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
World Rate Watch (10Y Yield / Spread to UST)
as of 2025-12-22
U.S. 4.174% / NA
Germany 2.9% / -1.274%
EZ(top4) 3.318% / -0.856%
Japan 2.081% / -2.093%
U.K. 4.538% / 0.364%
China 1.859% / -2.315%
EZ(top4): Eurozone top 4, GDP weighted
Some perspectives on 2/10 curves for US, Japan and Germany over thirty years. All have been steepening in last couple year, and Japan is the steepest. But they are still in the lower range in 30 years.
December 20, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Some perspectives on 2/10 curves for US, Japan and Germany over thirty years. All have been steepening in last couple year, and Japan is the steepest. But they are still in the lower range in 30 years.
Banks BS Watch (as of 2025-12-10)
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk NSA)
Tsy+Agy Sec: -19/-12/239
C&I Ln: -15/5/-96
RE Ln: 17/29/121
Consumer Ln: 6/31/-71
Deposits: 59/116/664
- Large: 26/61/398
- Small: 13/24/219
- Forgn: 20/30/47
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk NSA)
Tsy+Agy Sec: -19/-12/239
C&I Ln: -15/5/-96
RE Ln: 17/29/121
Consumer Ln: 6/31/-71
Deposits: 59/116/664
- Large: 26/61/398
- Small: 13/24/219
- Forgn: 20/30/47
December 19, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Banks BS Watch (as of 2025-12-10)
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk NSA)
Tsy+Agy Sec: -19/-12/239
C&I Ln: -15/5/-96
RE Ln: 17/29/121
Consumer Ln: 6/31/-71
Deposits: 59/116/664
- Large: 26/61/398
- Small: 13/24/219
- Forgn: 20/30/47
($bn change in 1wk/4wk/52wk NSA)
Tsy+Agy Sec: -19/-12/239
C&I Ln: -15/5/-96
RE Ln: 17/29/121
Consumer Ln: 6/31/-71
Deposits: 59/116/664
- Large: 26/61/398
- Small: 13/24/219
- Forgn: 20/30/47
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-19)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.504%
2Y: 1.362%
5Y: 1.525%
10Y: 1.946%
30Y: 2.709%
5Y5Y: 2.369%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.012%
2Y: 2.114%
5Y: 2.179%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.335%
5Y5Y: 2.365%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.504%
2Y: 1.362%
5Y: 1.525%
10Y: 1.946%
30Y: 2.709%
5Y5Y: 2.369%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.012%
2Y: 2.114%
5Y: 2.179%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.335%
5Y5Y: 2.365%
December 19, 2025 at 8:24 PM
#UST #TIPS report (as of 2025-12-19)
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.504%
2Y: 1.362%
5Y: 1.525%
10Y: 1.946%
30Y: 2.709%
5Y5Y: 2.369%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.012%
2Y: 2.114%
5Y: 2.179%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.335%
5Y5Y: 2.365%
real yield (const maturity zero rate):
prior 3M: 1.985%
1Y: 1.504%
2Y: 1.362%
5Y: 1.525%
10Y: 1.946%
30Y: 2.709%
5Y5Y: 2.369%
breakeven:
prior 3M: 2.078%
1Y: 2.012%
2Y: 2.114%
5Y: 2.179%
10Y: 2.273%
30Y: 2.335%
5Y5Y: 2.365%