Seasonal adjustment reveals summer uptick

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Punchline: The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets by holding rates steady in July, but the decision seems more understandable in hindsight given the limited CPI data available at the time.

Plus, the August TACO value pack

Our annual ranking compares economies in three different ways

Punchline: In an earlier post, I found little evidence that the SNB–ECB policy rate spread drives the CHF/euro exchange rate, likely because the ECB’s unconventional policies make its policy rate a po...

Source: ECB

Punchline: the flash CPI data for June were unexpectedly strong.

Punchline: It is often believed the spread between SNB and ECB policy rates is a key determinant of the CHF/euro exchange rate.

We examine the determinants of incumbent electoral success among members of Ireland’s lower house of parliament, Dáil Éireann, over a time-period covering seven General Elections (1992 to 2020). We utilise multiple sources to create a dataset linking incumbent politicians’ electoral outcomes to personal characteristics, constituency and election-specific characteristics, as well as a range of constituency-level socioeconomic variables. Our analysis reveals a number of important factors in determining the re-election success of politicians. Notably, being a woman reduces an incumbent’s chances of re-election by 10 percentage points, even after controlling for a wide range of other potentially important factors. Holding a senior ministerial position is found to significantly boost an incumbent’s re-election prospects, while being a junior minister has no impact. However, absent a senior ministerial position, being a member of a ruling government party or coalition is associated with significantly lower re-election success. We construct a measure of competitiveness and find that an incumbent in a more competitive constituency is less likely to be elected, while past performance, as measured by the order in which an incumbent is elected in the previous contest, is found to be an important predictor of current success.

Punchline: Unlike most central banks, the Fed must balance inflation and unemployment.

Punchline: The Riksbank, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank responded to easing inflation and rising uncertainty by cutting interest rates.