Stefan Gerlach
@sgerlach.bsky.social
1.3K followers 230 following 410 posts
Chief Economist of EFG Bank in Zurich; ex-Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Ireland; ex-Executive Director, HKMA; ex-BIS and ex-Prof at Goethe University and Brandeis University. (Views expressed are my own.) Substack: https://swissmacro.substack.com
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sgerlach.bsky.social
In today’s post, I look at annual inflation (the average monthly inflation rate over the past year) which is not very informative about current price pressures. By averaging across countries instead of over time we can get a better sense of current inflation.
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...
Tracking Global Inflation
A cross-country approach to identifying turning points in inflation
open.substack.com
sgerlach.bsky.social
Now at the SNB’s annual Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture at the ETH Zurich. This year’s speaker is John Cochrane.
sgerlach.bsky.social
A very interesting speech, given at @suomenpankki.fi yesterday. The highlight was President Lagarde’s discussion of why the impact of the US tariffs on the euro area has been less than expected.

on.ft.com/4gTJCNE Lagarde says ECB’s interest rates stance not ‘fixed’
Lagarde says ECB’s interest rates stance not ‘fixed’ as markets doubt further cuts
Central bank’s president stresses policymakers ready to act if ‘risks to inflation shift’
on.ft.com
sgerlach.bsky.social
Today I attended a timely and thought-provoking conference hosted by @suomenpankki.fi on monetary policy, geopolitics and trade. Highlights included speeches by Governor @ollirehn.suomenpankki.fi, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and ECB President Lagarde.
sgerlach.bsky.social
In today’s post I review an article on tariffs and monetary policy. Central banks should not look through tariff shocks but rather manage to decline in economic activity to the new equilibrium level.

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
Tariffs and Monetary Policy
Why central banks should not simply “look through” tariff-driven inflation
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
sgerlach.bsky.social
The upcoming Riksbank decision is finely balanced, with a tilt towards no change. It will hinge on two factors. First, how confident the Riksbank is that inflation will decline? Second, how worried it is about the outlook for economic activity?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/riksbank-p...
Riksbank Preview: Weak Growth Tilts Decision Toward a Cut
September decision hinges on how the Bank weighs recent data
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
sgerlach.bsky.social
The SNB — a traditionally opaque central bank — will begin publishing summaries of its policy discussions. How much transparency improves will depend on the detail provided, though the small consensus-driven Governing Board sets natural limits.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/snb-moves-...
SNB Moves Cautiously Toward Greater Transparency
The impact will depend on the details
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
sgerlach.bsky.social
Seasonally adjusted data show that Swiss inflation has strengthened over the summer, with annualised three-month inflation now running at about 1%. This suggests that underlying inflation is firmer than the annual figures imply.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/quick-comm...
Quick comment: Swiss inflation in August
Seasonal adjustment reveals summer uptick
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
sgerlach.bsky.social
The Acropolis of Athens.
sgerlach.bsky.social
In a paper presented at Jackson Hole, Emi Nakamura and her coauthors examine why central banks did not follow the Taylor rule when inflation rose sharply in 2021–22. The positive commentary the paper received prompted me to read it.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/comments-o...
Comments on Beyond the Taylor Rule
Credibility, expectations, and why central banks bent the rules
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
sgerlach.bsky.social
The Riksbank kept rates at 2% in August. The minutes show that the Executive Board saw the inflation spike in June and July as temporary, worried about the lack of recovery, and may lower rates in the autumn if inflation returns to earlier levels.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/riksbank-m...
Riksbank minutes: Inflation surprises and growth disappoints
Autumn cut possible if inflation eases
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
sgerlach.bsky.social
At Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell signalled that September rate cut. With policy finely balanced and one month of data still to come, he avoided preempting the FOMC. Nevertheless, his words are the best guide to what the FOMC is likely to decide.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/powell-sig...
Powell signals September cut likely at Jackson Hole
If the incoming data do not surprise
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com
sgerlach.bsky.social
Dividing customs revenues by imports gives a measure of the effective tariff rate. Looking at historical data, I find no evidence that this measure drives US inflation, though the scale of recent increases makes the absence of clear effects puzzling.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/the-effect...
The Effective Tariff Rate in the US Since 1929
Tariffs are high but their impact on inflation is hard to detect
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com