Dave Wasserman (unofficial bot)
@redistrict.bluesky.bot
Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.
http://cookpolitical.com/about/staff/david-wasserman
(Unofficial bot maintained by @manos.lol)
http://cookpolitical.com/about/staff/david-wasserman
(Unofficial bot maintained by @manos.lol)
Keep in mind that even with the TX map upheld by SCOTUS, Republicans still on track for a very minimal overall gain from redistricting, with FL/IN/LA/VA the biggest remaining question marks.
If you score remap shifts between safe/competitive seats as +/-0.5, here's how the count looks today, to my eye:
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
December 4, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Keep in mind that even with the TX map upheld by SCOTUS, Republicans still on track for a very minimal overall gain from redistricting, with FL/IN/LA/VA the biggest remaining question marks.
There's been some confusion out there about how @CookPolitical PVI works. A PVI score of R+10, for example, means that an R candidate should expect to get ~60% in a district if Trump won 50% of the vote nationally. Read our full explainer: www.cookpolitical.com/c…
December 4, 2025 at 2:59 PM
There's been some confusion out there about how @CookPolitical PVI works. A PVI score of R+10, for example, means that an R candidate should expect to get ~60% in a district if Trump won 50% of the vote nationally. Read our full explainer: www.cookpolitical.com/c…
New @CookPolitical: Could the White House's redistricting war backfire? Three GOP seats at severe risk if VA joins CA in adopting a Dem gerrymander:
#VA01 Rob Wittman (R)
#VA02 Jen Kiggans (R)
#VA05 John McGuire (R)
My full analysis, w/ maps: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
#VA01 Rob Wittman (R)
#VA02 Jen Kiggans (R)
#VA05 John McGuire (R)
My full analysis, w/ maps: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
Three GOP Seats at Severe Risk in Virginia Democrats’ Redistricting Push | Cook Political Report
Earlier this year, it looked like Republicans were poised to double or triple the size of their thin cushion in the House by launching a mid-decade redistricting war. But they may have had a blind...
www.cookpolitical.com
November 26, 2025 at 2:59 PM
New @CookPolitical: Could the White House's redistricting war backfire? Three GOP seats at severe risk if VA joins CA in adopting a Dem gerrymander:
#VA01 Rob Wittman (R)
#VA02 Jen Kiggans (R)
#VA05 John McGuire (R)
My full analysis, w/ maps: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
#VA01 Rob Wittman (R)
#VA02 Jen Kiggans (R)
#VA05 John McGuire (R)
My full analysis, w/ maps: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes:
#NJ07 Kean, Jr. (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA01 Wittman (R) - Likely R to Lean R
#VA02 Kiggans (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA10 Subramanyam (D) - Likely D to Solid D
Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
#NJ07 Kean, Jr. (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA01 Wittman (R) - Likely R to Lean R
#VA02 Kiggans (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA10 Subramanyam (D) - Likely D to Solid D
Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
Four House Ratings Move Towards Dems in Virginia and New Jersey | Cook Political Report
Following their resounding wins up and down the ballot earlier this month, it’s clear that momentum is on Democrats’ side. President Donald Trump’s approval rating — and voters’ opinions of his...
www.cookpolitical.com
November 19, 2025 at 12:22 AM
NEW @CookPolitical House rating changes:
#NJ07 Kean, Jr. (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA01 Wittman (R) - Likely R to Lean R
#VA02 Kiggans (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA10 Subramanyam (D) - Likely D to Solid D
Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
#NJ07 Kean, Jr. (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA01 Wittman (R) - Likely R to Lean R
#VA02 Kiggans (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
#VA10 Subramanyam (D) - Likely D to Solid D
Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
Talk about backfire: if the new ruling blocking TX Republicans' map is upheld, Dems would be on track to come out *ahead* by ~3 seats in the redistricting wars - w/ FL, LA & VA the biggest remaining variables.
If you score remap shifts between safe/competitive seats as +/-0.5, here's how the count looks today, to my eye:
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
November 18, 2025 at 11:56 PM
Talk about backfire: if the new ruling blocking TX Republicans' map is upheld, Dems would be on track to come out *ahead* by ~3 seats in the redistricting wars - w/ FL, LA & VA the biggest remaining variables.
New @CookPolitical: new court-ordered Utah map moves #UT01 from Solid R to Solid D. Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
Court-Ordered Utah Map Hands Democrats an Easy Flip | Cook Political Report
Democrats notched another win in the mid-decade redistricting wars late Monday night, when a district judge approved a new congressional map in Utah that creates a solidly blue district in Salt Lake...
www.cookpolitical.com
November 11, 2025 at 8:24 PM
New @CookPolitical: new court-ordered Utah map moves #UT01 from Solid R to Solid D. Full analysis by @ercovey: www.cookpolitical.com/a…
If you score remap shifts between safe/competitive seats as +/-0.5, here's how the count looks today, to my eye:
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
November 11, 2025 at 1:23 PM
If you score remap shifts between safe/competitive seats as +/-0.5, here's how the count looks today, to my eye:
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
CA: Dem +4.5
MO: GOP +1
NC: GOP +0.5
OH: GOP +0.5
TX: GOP +4
UT: Dem +1
That leaves Republicans ahead by half a seat, w/ FL, IN & VA the biggest remaining variables.
Between OH, KS, CA, VA and now this huge win in UT, Democrats have quietly strung together an impressive streak of victories over the past few weeks that have, surprisingly, pushed the mid-decade redistricting war closer to a draw.
November 11, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Between OH, KS, CA, VA and now this huge win in UT, Democrats have quietly strung together an impressive streak of victories over the past few weeks that have, surprisingly, pushed the mid-decade redistricting war closer to a draw.
Dems score huge redistricting victory in Utah, as judge overrules GOP legislature and orders a map w/ a new Harris +24 #UT01, guaranteeing Dems a one seat pickup. www.nbcnews.com/politic…
November 11, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Dems score huge redistricting victory in Utah, as judge overrules GOP legislature and orders a map w/ a new Harris +24 #UT01, guaranteeing Dems a one seat pickup. www.nbcnews.com/politic…
Big blue wave? I went on @beerocracyus (w/ pumpkin ale in hand) to talk about what Tuesday’s election results really mean. open.spotify.com/episod…
Big Blue Wave? What The Election Results Actually Mean
Beerocracy!® · Episode
open.spotify.com
November 9, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Big blue wave? I went on @beerocracyus (w/ pumpkin ale in hand) to talk about what Tuesday’s election results really mean. open.spotify.com/episod…
If there's a consolation for Republicans, it's that they're on track to hold all the Trump 5-10 districts in VA (if narrowly in some cases), meaning the bottom didn't entirely drop out.
Here are the seven GOP-held VA HoD seats Trump won by 5-10 pts. If Dems win any of these tonight, *watch out* (it's tsunami territory):
#HD34 Wilt (R)
#HD40 McNamara (R)
#HD49 Marshall (R)
#HD52 Walker (R)
#HD74 Cherry (R)
#HD83 Wachsmann (R)
#HD100 Bloxom (R)
#HD34 Wilt (R)
#HD40 McNamara (R)
#HD49 Marshall (R)
#HD52 Walker (R)
#HD74 Cherry (R)
#HD83 Wachsmann (R)
#HD100 Bloxom (R)
November 5, 2025 at 3:50 AM
If there's a consolation for Republicans, it's that they're on track to hold all the Trump 5-10 districts in VA (if narrowly in some cases), meaning the bottom didn't entirely drop out.
Update: this has happened. Dems on track to win at least 64 (!) VA House of Delegates seats, w/ two races still outstanding. Massive Dem night.
If Dems win 63+ HoD seats, it would be consistent w/ a lot of strong overperformances we've seen for Dems in downballot races so far in '25 and indicate that Dems should be considered favorites for House control in '26.
November 5, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Update: this has happened. Dems on track to win at least 64 (!) VA House of Delegates seats, w/ two races still outstanding. Massive Dem night.
I'm honored to be working at the @NBCNews decision desk tonight, which means that just like midterms & presidential nights, I won't be live-calling races on here.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
November 5, 2025 at 12:09 AM
I'm honored to be working at the @NBCNews decision desk tonight, which means that just like midterms & presidential nights, I won't be live-calling races on here.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
I'm honored to be working at the @NBCNews decision desk tonight, which means that just like midterms & presidential nights, I won't be live-calling races on here.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
November 4, 2025 at 11:54 PM
I'm honored to be working at the @NBCNews decision desk tonight, which means that just like midterms & presidential nights, I won't be live-calling races on here.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.
That said, I think the only real questions tonight are the margins. Be sure to tune into @NBCNews for the latest.